M. Hewson: l’eurodollaro è diretto verso quota 1,4
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets
L’arresto del direttore del FMI Dominique Strauss-Kahn non sembra destinato ad incidere significativamente sui negoziati per il secondo salvataggio della Grecia, anche se contribuisce a fornire un ulteriore elemento di incertezza all’interno del quadro generale della riunione Ecofin di questi giorni. La chiusura dell’Eurodollaro al di sotto di $ 1.4270 mantiene l’outlook negativo nel lungo termine e apre la strada verso una discesa a 1.40: a questo punto diventa sempre più evidente che le aspettative di un rialzo dei tassi di interesse non basteranno a mantenere gli acquisti sulla moneta unica, che soffre in particolar modo la mancanza di un piano credibile che fornisca una soluzione ai problemi della Grecia e, di conseguenza, sia in grado di riportare la propensione al rischio ai livelli precedenti.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 16th May 2011
Despite better than expected growth numbers from Germany and France at the end of last week, the single currency has remained under pressure as concerns about a plan to deal with Greece’s problems continue to plague market sentiment and undermine risk appetite.
The weekend news of the arrest of IMF chief Strauss-Kahn on sexual assault charges, while unlikely to affect Greece bail-out talks too much, throws an unneeded distraction and additional uncertainty into the mix with respect to the IMF’s role in bail-out talks at this week’s Ecofin meeting, where it seems likely that Portugal’s €78bn bailout will be finalised, after the Finns finally agreed to back it. It is becoming increasingly apparent that higher interest rate expectations will not be enough to keep supporting the single currency through these testing times, especially if ministers are unable to convince the markets of a clear and coherent strategy with respect to Greece.
This morning’s April euro zone CPI figures will still be monitored for any further rise in inflationary pressures. Expectations are for a month on month figure of 0.6% and year on year to remain at 2.8%. The pound, despite concern about pressure on consumer finances due to the squeeze of austerity, is likely to remain sidelined ahead of the release of tomorrow’s CPI numbers which are expected to increase to 4.2% after the surprise fall to 4% in March. Nationwide consumer confidence for April came in US economic data due out later is expected to show Empire manufacturing for May slipped back from April’s 21.70 to 19.65, following on from the recent disappointing ISM data, amid concerns of a slowing recovery.
EURUSD – last weeks close below the 55 day MA at 1.4270 keeps the longer term outlook for the single currency negative, and opens up the likelihood of a test of 1.4000 and the 200 week MA. The close below 1.4150 also adds weight to the argument that we could well have seen the highs for the euro in the short term. 1.4150 is the 38.2% retracement level of the up move from the lows this year at 1.2870 to the recent highs at 1.4940.
GBPUSD – last week’s close below the 55 day MA at 1.6290 validated the negative view flagged up by the bearish engulfing weekly candlestick of 2 weeks ago and keeps the sterling outlook to the negative side. The break below the trend line support at 1.6235 from the 1.5350 December lows has also reinforced this sentiment. Pullbacks could well find resistance around the 1.6230/40 area in the short term but while below 1.6290 keeps the focus on 1.6130 on the way to the major support level on the downside which remains around 1.5965, the February and March lows.
EURGBP – despite the chop of the last two to three trading days the failure to hold above the 55 day MA at 0.8760 on Friday keeps the focus on the 0.8620 area which is the 61.8% retracement level of the 0.8355/0.9040 up move. Pullbacks should again be restricted to this area of resistance around 0.8760.
USDJPY – the 81.20/30 area continues to be an obstacle for further gains despite a rebound in the US dollar index. However US 10 year bond yields continue to remain stodgy. While below this resistance area the risk of a fall back to support around the 80.10 area which is trend line support from the all-time lows at 76.25. While support around these levels holds we could still get a break above last week’s highs at 81.30 and this could be the catalyst for further gains, and a recovery towards 82.50. A move below 79.80 could well target further losses towards 78.80.