M. Hewson: l’intonazione ribassista dell’euro è confermata
Nonostante il tentativo di rimbalzo di ieri, l’Eurodollaro difficilmente potrà ritornare sopra $1,4280 nel breve periodo, mantenendo così un’intonazione ribassista:le incertezze e i timori legati al salvataggio della Grecia e al ruolo del Fmi sono ulteriori elementi che incidono negativamente sulla moneta unica. Dall’altra parte dell’Oceano, i dubbi sul passo della ripresa economica americana tornano a prevalere sulla propensione al rischio, soprattutto ora che il QE2 volge al termine. Anche la Sterlina rimane in un canale ribassista, sembra infatti improbabile che la Bank of England possa decidere un rialzo dei tassi a breve a causa dei timori legati alla crescita economica e all’abbandono del comitato monetario da parte del “falco” Andrew Sentance. Dollaro Australiano in ritracciamento a causa del nulla di fatto della banca centrale, che non dovrebbe alzare nuovamente i tassi almeno nel prossimo futuro. DollaroYen ingessato a quota 81.20.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 17th May 2011
Yesterday’s minor relief rally in the single currency was largely driven by the final ratification of the Portuguese bail-out by ministers, at yesterday’s EU meeting, as well as some poor US economic data after Empire manufacturing for May came in way below expectations of 19.65 at a five month low at 11.70, down from April’s 21.70, which sent the US dollar lower.
Following on as it has from the recent disappointing ISM data, it raises fresh concerns of a slowing recovery in the US industrial sector. These concerns about the pace of US recovery continue to weigh on risk appetite as the end of QE2 comes in to view. An imminent decision on Greece is highly unlikely today at the continuation of yesterday’s EU meeting, as the IMF has yet to finish its report and Greece has until Thursday to submit a revised fiscal plan.
Combined with the ongoing uncertainty with respect to the role of the IMF in the absence of DSK, further euro upside is likely to remain difficult to sustain in the short term. In economic data due out later German ZEW economic sentiment expectations for May are expected to show a drop from April’s 19.7 to 17.3. The UK will be sharing the limelight with Europe today when UK April CPI figures are expected to show an increase in inflationary pressures from March’s 4% to around 4.1%, though given that crude oil hit all time highs in sterling terms last month, it would not be surprising if the figures came in higher.
Retail prices are expected to slip back to 5.3% from 5.4%. Irrespective of strength of the data it would appear unlikely that the Bank of England would think about raising rates in the near term given that the main inflation hawk in Andrew Sentance has now left the monetary policy committee, as well as fears about economic growth. The recent decline in the Australian dollar, though partly due to the sell off in commodity prices, was also down to this months decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.75%.
Given recent softness in economic data it could well be that policymakers had good reason for holding fire and today’s publication of the minutes appears to confirm that prognosis. The minutes stated that the bank remained of the view that the current “mildly restrictive” monetary policy remains appropriate for now, even if higher rates would probably be needed later on. Support on the AUDUSD remains around the 1.0500 level. In the US housing starts data for April is expected to rise 3.5%, down from March’s 7.2% rise while April industrial production is expected to show a rise of 0.4%, half of March’s 0.8%, further reinforcing concerns about a slow down in US growth for Q2.
EURUSD – despite hitting its lowest level since 28th March at 1.4045 yesterday the single currency managed to rally back towards the 55 day MA, however it lacked the momentum to sustain a move above it and as such bearish momentum remains intact. The key resistance remains around 1.4280 and while below this key level the longer term outlook for the single currency remains negative. Above 1.4280 retargets 1.4380. A key support on the downside remains around the 1.4000 area and the 200 week MA, a break of which could see a test of 1.3905 and the 50% retracement of the up move from the 1.2870 lows to the recent peaks at 1.4940.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s pull backs in the pound slightly overshot the 1.6230/40 resistance area at 1.6252, however a lack of momentum has seen the pound slip back again. The close below the 55 day MA at 1.6290 continues to validate the negative view flagged up by the bearish engulfing weekly candlestick of 2 weeks ago and keeps the sterling outlook tilted towards the down side. The break below the trend line support at 1.6235 from the 1.5350 December lows has also reinforced this sentiment. Pullbacks should continue to find resistance around yesterday’s highs and while below 1.6290 the focus remains on 1.6130 on the way to the major support level on the downside, which remains around 1.5965, the February and March lows.
EURGBP – after the declines of recent days the single currency appears to be undergoing a period of consolidation trading in a triangular consolidation with upper line resistance around 0.8790 and lower line support at 0.8700. Yesterday’s rebound failed to overcome the 55 day MA once again and as such keeps the focus on the 0.8620 area which is the 61.8% retracement level of the 0.8355/0.9040 up move.
USDJPY – the softness in US 10 year bond yields continues to weigh on the dollar as the current range continues. The 81.20/30 area continues to be the main obstacle for further gains. While below this resistance area the risk remains of a fall back to support around the 80.20 area which is trend line support from the all-time lows at 76.25. While support around these levels holds we could still get a break above last week’s highs at 81.30 and this could be the catalyst for further gains, and a recovery towards 82.50. A move below 79.80 could well target further losses towards 78.80.