C. Cieszynski: torna la propensione al rischio, in arrivo nuovi aiuti per Atene
Seduta caratterizzata dal ritorno della propensione al rischio per gli investitori dopo che i policy makers europei hanno indicato che verranno concessi ulteriori aiuti alla Grecia per evitare sia il default che la ristrutturazione del debito pubblico. A beneficiarne oggi è stato soprattutto l’Euro che ha rotto al rialzo; in acquisto anche le cosiddette commodity currency legate al petrolio, sulla scia di un aumento della domanda di energia e materie prime, come la Corona Norvegese e il Dollaro Canadese (quest’ultimo apprezzato anche grazie alle dichiarazioni circa possibili ulteriori rialzi dei tassi da parte dela banca centrale). Al contrario hanno registrato cali importanti le monete più difensive come il Franco Svizzero, il Dollaro Usa e lo Yen: anche Moody’s ha infatti messo in creditwatch negativo il debito giapponese. Le posizioni più aggressive degli investitori hanno comportato un ritracciamento anche per i metalli preziosi come oro e argento. Nessuno però dorma sonni tranquilli stanotte, in attesa dei dati provenienti dalla Cina che potrebbero rapidamente mutare il quadro generale mentre sono attesi per domani dati macroeconomici importanti in uscita da Uk, Germania e Stati Uniti.
EUROPEAN MARKET WRAP
Toronto – 31th May 2011
US and UK traders have apparently returned from holiday in good spirits with markets around the returning to business in rally mode. Indications have started to appear from Europe suggesting that a new bailout for Greece may be arranged in the coming weeks rather than allow the country to default or renegotiate its debt or allow other worst case scenarios to play out. Also, economic news out of Germany was positive with retail sales beating expectations (3.6% vs street (0.1%)) and unemployment falling to 7.0%. Indications out of Ireland suggesting that it does not need additional money has helped to ease fears of contagion spreading beyond Greece.
US Chicago PMI (56.6 vs street 62.9) and consumer confidence (60.8 vs street 66.9) came in well below expectations but for the moment, this has been shrugged off in favour of renewed optimism toward the European debt situation. European indices, particularly on the continent have been strong today, led higher by the IBEX, MIB, DAX and CAC, while the FTSE has climbed at a more moderate pace. With some of the worst case scenarios fading and the potential for economic disruption easing, attitudes toward the outlook for the European economy and corporate profits have been improving.
This surge in bullishness has started to reverse some of the defensive flows of previous weeks as traders start to stake out more aggressive positions. EUR has been the main beneficiary today, breaking out to the upside. Resource currencies have also been outperforming today, led the oil sensitive CAD and NOK. CAD has also benefitted from indications from the Bank of Canada that while it held the line on rates for now, interest rates increases could be on the way as the economy improves.
Defensive currencies have been knocked back on their heels today including CHF, USD and precious metals. JPY has also taken a hit from flows out of defensive positions and also from Moody’s joining the parade of agencies putting the country’s credit rating under review for a possible downgrade. Energy commodities have roared to life today on improved economic sentiment and demand expectations with US crude outpacing Brent to the upside. Gasoline and natural gas have also been posting strong gains on the start of driving season for the former and an early heat wave in some regions increasing power demand for the latter. Copper has been steadily climbing but upcoming Chinese economic data may give the best indication of how sustainable this trend may be.
Precious metals have been softening with some capital starting to flow back toward Europe with contagion fears easing. Gold has been trading slightly lower on the day while Silver started strong but has been backing off as trading has progressed. Although this week has started out relatively quiet for scheduled economic news, things really kick into high gear starting tonight and into tomorrow with manufacturing PMI reports due out from China, Germany, the UK, the US and a number of other countries. The run up to Friday’s key US employment report also starts tomorrow with Challenger layoffs and ADP private sector payrolls. DOE energy inventories will be delayed to Thursday due to yesterday’s US holiday. Other beginning of month data such as US construction spending and vehicle sales and UK consumer credit numbers are also scheduled.