M. Hewson: la pressione resta alta su tutti i mercati
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets
Un’altra settimana turbolenta sta per iniziare in Europa dopo che la Merkel e Sarkozy si sono accordati per salvare l’Euro a qualunque costo portandolo fuori dalle acque procellose della Grecia. Mentre rimane da chiarire in base a quale principio alcuni detentori privati di obbligazioni dovrebbero accettare volontariamente un taglio della cedola (o un allungamento delle scadenze) con altri che avrebbero la facoltà di rifiutare, il FMI sembrerebbe indisponibile a rilasciare ulteriori fondi prima di un’autorizzazione del Parlamento greco di nuovi tagli alla spesa. La situazione, che è ben lontana dall’essere stata risolta, avrebbe già messo sotto stress il sistema bancario europeo con prospettive di un nuovo credit crunch. L’avvertimento di Moody’s all’Italia di un possibile downgrade e la riduzione delle stime di crescita da parte del FMI per l’economia Usa sono gli altri fattori che contribuiscono a mantenere alta la pressione su tutti i mercati. Come anticipato lo scorso venerdì, il pull-back dell’Euro a $1,4320 potrebbe riportarlo in scia a 1,45 pur senza comprometterne le possibilità di una nuova discesa a 1,40 qualora dovesse ribassare oltre 1,4150. Il calo dei rendimenti dei titolidi Stato Usa tengono un coperchio sul cambio DollaroYen, fermo a 80.
FOREX MORNING COMMENT
London – 20th June 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson) The coming week is set to be another turbulent one in Europe after the events of last Friday saw Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy pledge to support the euro, whatever the cost in the face of the turmoil in Greece. Talk of some form of private sector voluntary restructuring of debt for senior bondholders had soothed some market concerns of an imminent default, though it is hard to see why any investor would voluntarily accept a “debt haircut” while others could refuse.
In any case there is now some speculation as to whether this is still on the table, while battle lines have been drawn between EU ministers and the IMF on the one hand, who want Greece to accept further austerity in return for the next tranche of funds, and Greek ministers who in order to deflect the anger of the voters have proposed a referendum on political changes to the constitution. As things stand European ministers have weighed withholding half of the next €12bn tranche as they seek to defer the day of reckoning and keep the country solvent, even as Greek ministers begin a three day debate in the Greek parliament, followed by a vote on the new austerity measures.
In signs of stress within the European banking system some banks have started to reduce the amount of unsecured lending they are prepared to make available to euro zone banks, raising the prospect of a new credit crunch for the European banking system.
If problems surrounding Greece weren’t enough, ratings agency Moody’s on Friday put Italy on notice for a possible downgrade citing risks associated with efforts to reduce debt and the potential for higher borrowing costs as well as political uncertainty caused by the political problems of Prime Minister Berlusconi. Given that later this week the final US Q1 GDP figure is due, last Friday’s intervention by the IMF was particularly unwelcome given that the organisation downgraded its growth forecast for the US economy for 2011 from 2.8% to 2.5% citing higher commodity prices and bad weather in the first quarter and a weak housing market.
The pound has also continued to feel the pressure after last week’s disappointing May UK retail sales numbers showed that the UK consumer has started to rein in after April’s pre Easter splurge.
Tomorrow’s Bank of England minutes aren’t expected to offer any surprises after the departure of uber hawk Andrew Sentance in May.
EURUSD – another sharp rally at the end of last week saw the single currency pull back to the 1.4320/30 area described in last Friday mornings note. As suggested previously the single currency has the potential to pull back to last week’s high at 1.4500 without derailing the possibility of further weakness.
It still needs a daily close below 1.4150 and the 100 day MA to target the 200 week SMA at 1.4010, which would be the last remaining barrier to a test towards 1.3770.
GBPUSD – despite the recent weakness in the pound the inability to sustain a move below 1.6080 continues to provoke pullbacks in the cable, despite the inconclusive breaching of the trend line support from the May 2010 lows late last week. The solid support around the 1.6000 area and the remains a key factor with respect to further losses and we need to see a sustained break of this major support between 1.5965 and 1.6000, and the 200 day MA also comes in at these levels as well. In the interim the pound needs to clear 1.6190 to target 1.6280.
EURGBP – Friday’s late rally took the single currency back through resistance at 0.8830 before topping out just above the 0.8850 level as the currency continues to ping around in a range between 0.8700 and 0.8900 on the wide. This range looks set to continue and a move back below 0.8810 could well re-target 0.8780 on the way to the lows of last week at 0.8715. It needs a consolidated break below 0.8745 to reopen a return towards 0.8700 and 0.8680.
USDJPY – as suspected in Friday’s note the weakness in US bond yields is keeping a lid on the dollar yen, as we saw it slip back towards the 80.00 level. Fairly good support remains between 79.80 and 80.10, while resistance remains around the 81.00 area and behind that at the 55 day MA at 81.45. A slide below 79.80 could well see a re-test of the May lows at 79.50.