M. Hewson: euro, il prossimo test è fissato a 1,45 dollari

Scritto il alle 10:18 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (analista di CMC Markets) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader di CMC Markets)

L’ Euro è ben impostato per proseguire il rally rialzista: dopo aver superato $1,4330 il prossimo test è fissato a 1,45, supportato dalle notizie blandamente positive che arrivano da Bruxelles circa la determinazione di evitare comunque un default greco. L’attenzione si sposta ora sul Parlamento greco e sulla forza della politica di riuscire ad imporre scelte ancora più dolorose anche se, considerato l’enorme mole del debito greco, si dubita in ogni caso che ulteriori misure di austerity riusciranno a modificare la situazione. Anche Fitch ha avvisato che un’eventuale ristrutturazione, ancorchè volontaria, del debito equivarrebbe comunque ad un credit event. Dall’altra parte dell’Oceano le cose non vanno meglio con l’avvertimento della stessa agenzia di rating sul fatto che un fallimento nell’innalzamento del tetto sul debito americano significherebbe un sicuro downgrade.
In Australia la pubblicazione delle minute della RBA mostrano uno scenario che difficilmente riuscirà a sostenere ulteriori rialzi dei tassi.

London – 21th June 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)

With today’s no confidence vote in Greece due late tonight the single currency has found some support as soothing noises emanate from Brussels about a determination that a Greece default can be avoided, while German finance minister Schauble pledged a further €211bn in loan guarantees to the EFSF, despite a continued public backlash in Germany against the Greek rescue plans.

Despite talk surrounding a compromise, or talk of voluntary restructurings, ratings agency Fitch warned that such an event for Greece would be considered a default, or credit event. These comments further cast doubt on the ability of Greece to avoid such an event.

While attempting to remain even-handed the agency also warned that a failure to raise the US debt ceiling would also trigger a downgrade.

A successful vote for Prime Minister Papandreou might bring further respite to the single currency and the recent volatility, as the likelihood would be that the austerity budget could well get through; however passing an austerity budget is one thing.  Implementing it in the face of fierce opposition amongst the voters is something else and this might also play on politicians minds when it comes to the crunch, making the passing of the budget anything but a “slam dunk”. 

The fact is given the size of Greece’s debt pile further austerity will change nothing, and merely serve to push this particular ball further down the road.  Before that we have the small matter of some economic data in the guise of German ZEW economic sentiment for June which is expected to fall to -3, from May’s 3.1.  In the UK the focus will be on public sector net borrowing for May, which given April’s dire figure of £7.7bn is expected to rise further to £16.5bn, increasing the pressure on the Chancellor and his ambitious fiscal plans to cut the deficit. 

In the US, existing home sales for May are expected to show that the US housing market continues to remain weak with expectations of a fall of 5%, from April’s 0.8% decline. With the Fed set to start its deliberations at the beginning of its two day meeting ahead of the expiry of QE2, tomorrow’s press conference by Bernanke will be closely scrutinised for the chairman’s views on the US economy in the light of the recent downgrades of US growth forecast by the IMF and Goldman Sachs.

This morning’s release of the RBA minutes for June showed that the bank remained concerned about the after effects of the Queensland flooding, but that it remained likely that rates would still have to rise sometime in the future from their current levels of 4.75%.

EURUSD – the break above the 1.4320/30 area shifts the focus on the single currency towards the upside, after the failure yesterday to push below 1.4200. Todays break above this key resistance area has the potential to target further gains towards the 1.4500 area and last week’s highs. It still needs a daily close below 1.4150 and the 100 day MA to target the 200 week SMA at 1.4010, which would be the last remaining barrier to a test towards 1.3770. 

GBPUSD – yesterday’s break above 1.6180/90 fell short of 1.6280 at 1.6235 but the support at higher levels keeps the pound susceptible to further gains towards the 1.6300 level. For further losses to unfold the pound needs to break below the 1.6080 lows despite the inconclusive breaching of the trend line support from the May 2010 lows late last week. The solid support around the 1.6000 area remains a key factor with respect to further losses and we need to see a sustained break of this major support between 1.5965 and 1.6000, and the 200 day MA also comes in at these levels as well.  In the interim the pound needs to clear 1.6190 to target 1.6280. 

EURGBP – once again the rally in the single currency seems to be running into resistance around the 0.8850/60 area and this remains a key barrier to further gains in the near term. A break of 0.8850 is not expected to run too much over with the 0.8900 level expected to hold the recent range. This range of 0.8700/0.8900 looks set to continue even though yesterday’s failure to break below 0.8780 saw a sharp rebound. The 0.8780 area remains a key barrier to a re-test of the lows of last week at 0.8715.  It needs a consolidated break below 0.8745 to reopen a return towards 0.8700 and 0.8680.

USDJPY – the dollar continues to find support around the 80.00 area and also continues to find upside progress heavy going. Below the 80.00 level there is fairly good support around 79.80, while resistance remains around the 81.00 area and behind that at the 55 day MA at 81.45.  A slide below 79.80 could well see a re-test of the May lows at 79.50.

Sydney – 21th June 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)

Greece debt is still main concern for market

Early support faded in midday trade only to recover in the final hour today as Greek debt woes continued to plague investor’s minds. Currently, the main concern of our market is that Greece gets its next tranche of money to pay its bills. For this to proceed smoothly we will need to see new austerity measures passed through the Greek parliament.

The market is currently pricing that the new funds and support for the austerity package is a likely outcome. More austerity measures are definitely not what the Greek people are taking kindly too and mass protests are holding the markets at bay.

Papandreou surviving tonight’s confidence vote would give further impetus to today’s rally however a no confidence vote will likely spook an already fragile market.  Questions will then be raised about how quickly the EU-IMF can come to the party if at all.

Today, gains appeared across the oil and gas sector as the takeover rumour mill spun its wheel. The old favourite BHP taking over Woodside stuck its head up again and got noticed. This gave support to other constituents in the oil and gas sector who have been crying out against their recent hammering.

Fosters also announced it had received an unsolicited incomplete, non-binding and conditional proposal from SABMiller to acquire all of their shares at 4.90. Fosters opened higher than the proposed price as the board believes the proposal undervalues the company.

The RBA minutes were released today revealing the likely fate of interest rate decisions. Whilst the tightening bias remains, mention was given to weakening credit growth, falls in consumer confidence, the slashing of full time employment and falling auction clearance rates pointing to softening housing finance.
This does not seem like an inflationary environment where interest rates need to rise as the RBA governor suggests.
Commento Forex 21062011

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