CMC Markets: rilettori puntati sul parlamento greco, ok delle banche francesi al rollover
Il primo semestre 2011, che si chiuderà tra pochi giorni, verrà ricordato come una pietra miliare nella storia del debito pubblico europeo. Gli eventi della scorsa settimana continueranno a prolungare i loro effetti anche nel corso di questa ottava in considerazione dei timori degli investitori circa la salute del comparto bancario italiano a seguito del downgrade di Moody’s: questa volta non sono bastate le dichiarazioni di Wen Jiabao che la Cina sarà ancora un sottoscrittore di lungo termine dei titoli europei per placare le ansie del mercato. L’attenzione principale sarà rivolta ancora una volta al voto del Parlamento greco sul pacchetto di tagli varati dal governo, mentre sembra che alcune banche francesi abbiano confermato la propria disponibilità ad accettare un rollover sulle scadenze. Ancora tutta da verificare invece la reazione delle agenzie di rating ad un simile evento, che con tutta probabilità verrà classificato come un “credit event”. L’ Euro, che nel frattempo è tornato poco sopra di $1,41, dovrà faticare per mantenersi al di sopra di 1,4020 per non ridiscendere verso i minimi di maggio posti a 1,3970. Il “cable” (SterlinaDollaroUsa) prosegue nella sua discesa sotto la media mobile a 200 giorni di 1,6035 mentre il DollaroYen rimane inamovibile su quota 80, benchè in ottica favorevole al biglietto verde. La fuoriuscita dei flussi di investimento dagli asset più rischiosi sta penalizzando il Dollaro Australiano, diretto verso i livelli più bassi registrati negli ultimi mesi (1,03) qualora dovessimo assistere ad una seconda ondata di vendite massicce come quelle viste nell’ultima seduta. Più in generale sul mercato valutario, con l’indice Vix ritornato sopra quota 20, i mercati azionari in rosso e l’Euro che fatica a mantenere 1,40, ritornano gli acquisti sulle monete rifugio quali il Franco Svizzero e lo Yen, mentre, fintantoche permane l’incertezza riguardante il voto del Parlamento greco, Dollaro Australiano, Sterlina ed Euro continueranno ad essere venduti.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 27th June 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
As the first half of 2011 draws to a close this week has all the hallmarks of being a key milestone in the European sovereign debt story.
Last weeks events look set to continue to weigh on sentiment given recent market concerns about Italian banks and their fiscal health after ratings agency Moody’s downgrades last week.
Comments by Chinese PM Wen Jiabao at the weekend that China would remain a long-term investor in Europe’s sovereign debt market appear to have been shrugged off by investors as realisation dawns that Greece is symptomatic of a wider problem in Europe.
Furthermore it is likely that it will take a few more than token purchases of European bonds to convince market participants, and bond markets n particular that Europe has the means to resolve its problems. While welcome news to peripheral European economies at a key time it is unlikely that this generosity is prompted by anything other than a determination in keeping their biggest export market ticking over, and it is likely that the Chinese will attach as many strings as possible to any help that may be forthcoming.
The main market focus this week will be the Greek parliament austerity vote tomorrow, which is expected to be a fairly tight affair.
In the meantime policymakers are trying to get ahead of the curve with respect to private sector agreement to partial rollovers of maturing debt, with some French banks said to have agreed to up to a 70% rollover of maturing Greek government bonds.
The big unknown remains with respect to how these would be viewed by the ratings agencies and whether they would be classified as a “credit event” and therefore subject to a ratings downgrade.
The pound is expected to remain sidelined ahead of tomorrow’s final revision of Q1 GDP, a number which is not expected to change from the previous number of 0.5%.
The key data items out today are from the US with core personal consumption and personal income data for May due out. Expectations are for a rise of 0.2% for consumption and personal incomes to rise 0.4%, with spending expected to remain almost flat.
EURUSD – the single currency is currently holding above its trend line support at 1.4110/15 from the May lows at 1.3970, with a break below targeting the 1.4000 level. Having closed lower for the third week in succession the recent downward pressure remains intact while below the 55 day MA at 1.4410.
However the balance of probabilities remains evenly balanced with respect to a move higher or lower while above the 100 day MA now at 1.4190. The 1.4320/30 area should also act as resistance on an interim basis, while there is also broader resistance level at 1.4460, the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.4700/1.4075 down move. The main support level remains around the 1.4020 area where the 200 week MA sits a break of which would then re-target the lows in May at 1.3970, with the 50% retracement of the 1.2870/1.4940 up move being the longer term target at 1.3905.
GBPUSD – the negativity surrounding the pound continues with the break below the 200 day MA at 1.6035 and the failure to recover back above this level on Friday keeps the onus on for a move towards the 1.5880 area, which is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5340/1.6745 up move. Any rallies need to overcome 1.6035 and close back above it to stabilise in the medium term. A move back above 1.6035 could well re-target the 1.6120/30 area initially.
EURGBP – the continued failure to break through the trend line resistance at 0.8940/50, from the 0.9045 highs seen in May keeps the outlook for the single currency tilted towards the downside. A break above this 0.8950 area would undoubtedly shift the focus towards the 0.9000 area and the highs in May at 0.9150. While on the downside the strong support at 0.8840/50 remains the key barrier preventing a move towards the 0.8780 area.
USDJPY – with US bond yields remaining weak the prospects for a strong rally here remain subdued. Despite this the outlook remains positive for the US dollar, while it is able to stay above support around the 80.00 area. The dollar needs to break through the 81.00 area to push up towards the 55 day MA at 81.30. Below the 80.00 level there is fairly good support around 79.80 while a slide below 79.80 could well see a re-test of the May lows at 79.50.
AUD facing a tough start to the week with risk assets being unwound
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
The Australian Dollar has started the new week in much the same fashion as it finished the last, which is facing a continued unwinding of risk assets from portfolios. Good news stories in the market seem to be few and far between at the moment, which is really stifling the Australian Dollar and sending it lower towards support levels which have not really been in play for some months. With the Volatility Index back above 20, stocks deep in the red and Euro getting uncomfortably close to slipping below 1.40 again, the major currency flows remain firmly directed towards the likes of the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen.
As such the Aussie Dollar, Sterling and Euro may have limited upside potential until we navigate through the Greek Austerity vote later in the week. This morning the AUD has held the 1.0420-1.0450 level however a foray down into the high 1.03’s for the first time since April could be unavoidable if we witness another night of heavy selling on offshore markets.
We have a light week of local data scheduled so direction will be sought from domestic stocks and the Shanghai index. The currency should hold onto the 1.04 handle for the remainder of the session if stocks do not dive deeper in afternoon trade.
Debt From Europe and the US Weighing On the Market
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)
Get down and stay down is basically what the market was told today after a tough lead from US markets. The S&P/ASX200 index is down over 1 pct as almost all sectors are in the red.Many in the investment community may be too scared to dip a toe in the water, which to me spells capitulation and a potential rationale to be getting back in. Before diving in head first though there are a number of anxieties that need to be addressed.
Moody’s review of Italian banks and government organisations had the market running scared today. This type of sentiment has held the market lower throughout the day with most sectors lower. Italy’s problems coupled with the need for the Greek parliamentary support to pass new austerity measures has put too much weight into an already fragile European condition.
Questions are now being asked as to whether a large string of is a reasonable course of action given the indebtedness of the economy. Borrowing beyond ones means is the talk of the town right now and everyone is being made well aware of the problems that are associated with over-extending oneself. So when the US is looking to raise the debt ceiling it may see some grey-beards questioning the legitimacy of such action.
The July US earnings season is only two weeks away and as such I think the recent weakness is an indication that many market participants believe earnings are too high and results could disappoint.