Forex Morning Comments: il rimbalzo dell’euro potrebbe durare poco

Scritto il alle 10:21 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (analista di CMC Markets) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader di CMC Markets)
Il rimbalzo dell’Euro delle ultime 24 ore sulla disponibilità delle banche francesi a sottoscrivere un rollover volontario dei titoli greci in scadenza e sull’impegno della Cina a mantenere i propri investimenti in Europa potrebbe comunque essere di breve durata costringendo la moneta unica a muoversi in un trading range fissato tra $1,41 e 1,44. Proseguno invece i segnali ribassisti per la Sterlina, rimasta al di sotto della media mobile a 200 giorni a 1,6035: il dato finale sul Pil Uk del primo trimestre in uscita oggi non dovrebbero modificare il quadro ribassista. Il recupero dei rendimenti sui titolidi Stato Usa di ieri ha giovato al cambio DollaroYen, per quanto non riesca a superare la quota di 81. Dollaro Australiano ancora sotto pressione: l’indebolimento delle materie prime e il nuovo atteggiamento della RBA suggeriscono che vi sia all’orizzonte un taglio dei tassi  entro ottobre. Si prevede un’apertura positiva per le principali borse europee.

London – 28th June 2011

(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)

The last seven days haven’t been particularly good ones for the pound with disappointing CBI retail sales data at the end of last week, and an unexpected slightly more dovish outlook from the Bank of England minutes, which have sent the pound to its lowest levels against a basket of currencies for 8 months.  Today’s release of the final revision of Q1 GDP is not expected to alter that sentiment too much with expectations that it will remain unchanged at 0.5%, with the year on year figure remaining unchanged at 1.8%.

The single currency has rebounded in the last 24 hours as optimism increases that a solution will be found to avert a Greek default. Plans by French banks to extend the maturity of their Greek bonds to avert such an event has helped underpin the single currency as has a pledge by China to keep investing in Europe’s sovereign debt market.

Talk of a Plan B, in the event of a failure to pass the Greek austerity budget this week, has also been doing the rounds, which have also given a boost to the single currency.

With all the talk of contagion and risks of a default and the likelihood that German taxpayers will be asked to dig ever deeper to fund further bailouts it will be interesting to see the effect on the latest German Gfk consumer confidence figures, which is expected to slip back to 5.3 from the previous month’s 5.5.  In the US investors will be hoping that today’s consumer confidence for June will show some improvement from the previous 60.8 reading with a reading of 61 expected.  However given that yesterday’s personal spending data for May showed its weakest reading for nearly a year there is a risk of a miss.

EURUSD – having held yet again above the trend line support at 1.4110/15 from the May lows at 1.3970 the recent range trading in the single currency looks set to continue for a while longer. With this in mind balance of probabilities remain evenly balanced with respect to a move higher or lower while above this support area, and below the 55 day MA resistance at 1.4410. The 1.4320/30 area should also act as resistance on an interim basis, while there is also broader resistance level at 1.4460, the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.4700/1.4075 down move. The main support level remains around the 1.4020 area where the 200 week MA sits. 

GBPUSD – the pound continues to trade below the 200 day MA at 1.6035, and while below this level the onus remains for a move towards the 1.5880 area, which is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5340/1.6745 up move. Yesterday’s marginal new 5 month lows at 1.5915 brought the pound slightly nearer the target but still short of it.  Any rallies need to overcome 1.6035 and close back above it to stabilise in the medium term. A move back above 1.6035 could well re-target the 1.6120/30 area initially.

EURGBP – the single currency continues to be bought on dips but until it is able to push significantly above the 0.8940/50 resistance area it could well still remain susceptible to pullbacks. A sustained break above this 0.8950 area would undoubtedly shift the focus towards the 0.9000 area, followed by the highs in May at 0.9150. While on the downside the strong support at 0.8840/50 remains the key barrier preventing a move towards the 0.8780 area.

USDJPY – a rebound in US bond yields yesterday saw the US dollar rebound strongly, however it remains constrained by the resistance at the 81.00 area.  The dollar needs to break through the 81.00 area to push up towards the 55 day MA at 81.30. Below the 80.00 level there is fairly good support around 79.80 while a slide below 79.80 could well see a re-test of the May lows at 79.50.

Some respite being seen from Europe but not tipping the balance for the equity markets

(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)

The Australian market lost its shine today just before noon and has continued its downward spiral for the remainder of the afternoon. Oil and gas producers led the market lower after oil hit a four month low overnight but the real problem lies with the terribly low sentiment regarding Greece’s debt situation. 

Last night’s trading session however may have seen our first ray of light in the Greek debt problem. The French solution and the Greek parliamentary numbers were at least a sufficient cause for investors to look for value and buy up the overnight markets. Whilst this initial optimism didn’t stick we still held on for a good overnight result and I believe we will see more optimism in the coming days ahead. 

Today there seems to be a rotation out of commodities into the banks. QE2 had a major role in rising commodity price rises over the last year. Weighing on the global banking stocks lately has been the international regulators effort to impose additional capital needed to be held by significant institutions. 

This idea was put in place to prevent the costly bailouts of the banking sectors seen over the GFC and would help avoid future systemic collapses.  Significant banks will be required to hold an additional 1% to 2.5% of common tier 1 capital depending on the banks systemic importance. Many of the world’s biggest banks already hold core tier 1 capital ratios of 10 percent or more and therefore easily meet or exceed the top end of the surcharge band.

This development gives more certainty to the banking community especially those who feared a requirement of 3% or more would be applied.  The Aussie dollar is also likely to continue to come under pressure. With weaker commodity prices again overnight and a less hawkish stance from the RBA, chatter has been increasing about the likelihood of a rate cut some time before October, which would see the Aussie dollar lose some of its yield advantage.

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