Forex Morning Comments: l’euro in scia del voto Greco e del prossimo rialzo dei tassi

Scritto il alle 10:18 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (analista di CMC Markets), Tim Waterer (Senior Forex Dealer di CMC Markets) e Anthony Whitaker (Institutional Equities Dealer di CMC Markets)

Il rally dell’Euro nelle ultime 24 ore ha continuato a testare la parte alta del trading range $1,41/1,44 sulla base di diversi fattori, non ultimo l’ottimismo circa un voto favorevole del Parlamento greco, chiamato oggi a deliberare sul pacchetto di austerity per i prossimi cinque anni. Anche la circostanza che, qualora il voto dovesse essere negativo, sia pronto un piano di riserva che vede il coinvolgimento delle banche su base volontaria agisce come una ragione in più per comprare la moneta unica, oltre al fatto che dopo le parole di JC Trichet ormai il rialzo dei tassi la prossima settimana sembra già inevitabile. In questo scenario, la reazione delle agenzie di rating ad una qualsiasi soluzione che non sia l’approvazione del piano appare un evento di secondaria importanza. Sterlina ancora in trend ribassista, mentre crescono i timori che la crescita del secondo trimestre possa essere al di sotto delle attese. Buone notizie dal Giappone, che sta recuperando la sua capacità industriale con il dato della produzione di maggio salito del 5,7%, al di sopra delle aspettative. Si rafforza il Dollaro Usa nel cambio con lo Yen, oltre quota 81. Acquisti anche sul Dollaro Australiano sulla scia del rimbalzo dell’indice CRB delle materie prime: con l’Oro sopra $1500 dollari aumentano le possibilità di un apprezzamento sia dell’Aussie che dell’Euro

London – 29th June 2011

(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)

The rally in the single currency over the past 24 hours has continued to test the upper end of its recent range on the back of a number of different factors, not least the expectation that today’s midday austerity vote will get passed by the Greek parliament.

Other factors have been talk of EU leaders working on a Plan B in the event of a “no” vote. This belief that a Plan B is being worked on has been denied by EU policymakers including Olli Rehn, however euro downside continues to remain limited after comments from ECB president Trichet reiterating that the bank remained in “strong vigilance” mode, with expectations of a July rate hike next week being reaffirmed once again.

Talk of a French plan to rollover some of their debt for 30 years being universally adopted across Europe has seen markets become more confident that a default scenario can be avoided.

Be that as it may the problems will not end with the “yes” vote the markets expect to get later today. One only has to look at the scenes outside the parliament building in Athens to know that there is a long way to go with some opinion polls saying that over 70% of Greeks are opposed to the measures.

There is also the small matter of the ratings agencies who have gone on the record as saying that any type of reorganising, restructuring of debt would technically be considered a default event.

There is also a school of thought that politicians could well exert undue pressure on the agencies, which would be ironic given that the same agencies were being roundly criticised by governments two to three years ago for not being stringent enough with respect to their ratings of sub-prime debt. It is unlikely that they will want to be accused of being caught out again, but who knows what political pressure might be brought to bear.  The pound continues to suffer across the board weakened after Q1 GDP was left unchanged at 0.5%, while the year on year figure was reduced from 1.8% to 1.6% reinforcing concerns about the state of the UK economy. With more UK retailers announcing store closures and going into administration and disposable incomes falling at their fastest levels for 30 years there is increasing concern that Q2 growth could fall short.

Today’s mortgage approvals data for May is not expected to offer much comfort either, while net consumer credit for the same month could well show further weakness with expectations for £0.4bn, down from April’s £0.5bn.  Japan appears to be recovering its industrial capability in the wake of the earthquake earlier this year, as industrial production for May jumped 5.7%, above expectations of 5.5% and well above April’s 1.6%

EURUSD – the single currency once again proved impervious to further losses moving higher through the interim resistance at 1.4320/30 but it has so far been unable to get above the 55 day MA at 1.4410.
The key support remains above the trend line support at 1.4115/25 from the May lows at 1.3970.
With this in mind balance of probabilities remain evenly balanced with respect to a move higher or lower while above this support area, and below the 55 day MA resistance at 1.4410. Above 1.4410 there is also broader resistance level at 1.4460, the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.4700/1.4075 down move.
The main support level remains around the 1.4020 area where the 200 week MA sits. 

GBPUSD – the pound yesterday did what it does best and squeeze the short positions until the pips squeaked. Crucially it was unable to close back above the 200 day MA at 1.6035, despite hitting 1.6040, and while below this level the onus remains for a move towards the 1.5880 area, which is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5340/1.6745 up move. This week’s marginal new 5 month lows at 1.5912 brought the pound slightly nearer the target but again still short of it. Any rallies need to overcome 1.6035 and close back above it to stabilise in the medium term. A move back above 1.6035 could well re-target the 1.6120/30 area initially.

EURGBP – yesterday’s push above the 0.8940/50 resistance area now opens up the possibility of a move towards the 0.9000 area initially; followed by the May highs at 0.9045. Only a sustained break back below this 0.8940 area shifts the focus back towards trend line support at 0.8900, from the June lows at 0.8725. Further down the strong support at 0.8840/50 remains the key barrier preventing a move towards the 0.8780 area.

USDJPY – another rally in 10 year US bond yields yesterday, back above 3% saw the US dollar rebound strongly, and push beyond the resistance at the 81.00 area.  The subsequent overspill took the dollar up to the 55 day MA at 81.30, but not beyond it. A close above 81.30 could well signal the next leg higher towards the May highs at 82.00. For now the dollar looks a little overbought and could slip back towards the 80.70 area. For now the 80.00 level remains fairly solid support while a slide below 79.80 could well see a re-test of the May lows at 79.50.

Aud Taking Strenght From Higher Commodities
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)

The Australian dollar drew strength from a substantial rise in the CRB Index overnight.  Gains of over 1% on the major US indices kept US dollar buying on the back foot, which paved the way for commodity prices across the board to shine.  A good indicator of the prevailing market stance on risk is to look at which side of US$1500 that the gold price resides. Whilst ever the gold spends time trading above this yardstick, currency flows should favour the likes of Euro and the Aussie dollar.

It was interesting to watch the rally in risk assets in the last 24 hours. Whilst I would stop short of calling it ‘baseless’, there really did seem to be no new market driver. Maybe we can just attribute the buying spree to hope that the Greek austerity vote will come and go without incident this week.  With a looming interest rate hike seemingly back on the agenda of the ECB, the Euro ‘made hay’ and shot up over a cent after Trichet’s comments.

The Euro has been the roller-coaster of the currency market for the last 3 months since the debt crisis resurfaced, and the ECB’s unyielding stance on inflation during this time has only served to exaggerate the ride.

During the local session this morning volume has been light, which has caused the Australian dollar to slide a quarter of a cent from 1.0545 to 1.0520. Yesterday we saw Asian equity markets run out of steam in afternoon trade and a similar occurrence today could see the AUDUSD rate slip to 1.0490 ahead of the open of European markets. All Markets Await Austerity Measure Outcome

(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Institutional Equities Dealer Anthony Whitaker)

In these uncertain times, whip sawing of the last few weeks is continuing, with the Greek parliament set to vote on the austerity measures at 2pm Athens time.  Over the last two days, our market is certainly underperforming. One explanation is that with Greece now such a driving force of global markets, investors run liquidity risk in trading our market due to time zone differences.  It would be much more attractive from a global investor’s perspective to be trading markets where liquidity was available/open during the EU time zone at the moment. 

Regardless of the austerity measure outcome tonight and how the market reacts to this outcome, I would expect to see our market play some catch up over the next week.

It feels like global markets may be setting up for a big ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ event in regards to Greece. Understandably, not many want to be short into this event and a lot of the run in the last day or two may well be as a result of squaring up positions, rather than belief in an end to Greece’s issues.
There seems limited upside tonight even if the Greek parliament approves the austerity measures, as markets have anticipated that they will.  I think this phenomenon may also go a way to explaining why local markets haven’t climbed higher than what we have today.

Mid Cap 50 is underperformed the broader index by about 0.3%, while the small cap index has actually outperformed (marginally) for the first time in at least a week. Tax loss selling seems to be finally drying up. Small cap outperformance is a case of investors picking up beaten down stocks looking for a run into the new financial year.

Commento Forex 29062011

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