Forex Morning Comments: Il buon esito degli stress test non allontana le preoccupazioni degli investitori
Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson, Ben Le Brun e Andrew May, analisti di CMC Markets.
Le sedici banche che hanno superato gli stress test sono ora quelle che preoccupano maggiormente gli investitori, essendo chiaro che – con una politica di tassi al rialzo come quella messa in atto dalla Bce – risulta sorprendente come sia le banche irlandesi che quelle portoghesi possano essere considerate indenni dal rischio rappresentato dai mutui a tasso variabile, che rappresentano la gran parte dei contratti stipulati in quelle nazioni. La reazione dei mercati, che si sono nuovamente rifugiati nell’Oro e nel Franco Svizzero, dimostra chiaramente da che parte stia il consenso, sempre più lontano dai policy makers europei. La stessa mancanza di fiducia che si sta riscontrando al momento sul mercato del debito italiano, i cui rendimenti sarebbero dovuti calare in seguito all’approvazione della manovra finanziaria: il fatto che questo non sia avvenuto rappresenta un segnale di totale sfiducia nei confronti del Governo guidato da Berlusconi. Dall’altra parte dell’Atlantico la situazione non è certo rosea: Standard and Poor’s ha detto a chiare lettere che il consenso sull’innalzamento del tetto di debito Usa non basterà di per sé ad evitare un downgrade se contemporaneamente non si coglierà l’occasione per tagliare la spesa pubblica. Sul mercato forex, l’Eurodollaro deve superare $1,4290 per proseguire il trend rialzista; Dollaro sempre più debole nei confronti dello Yen deve superare 79.50 per tornare a rivedere gli 80; Dollaro Australiano in flessione a causa della situazione macroeconomica generale e delle previsioni di prossimi tagli dei tassi da parte della Banca centrale. Attesa per un aumento dei tassi in Nuova Zelanda, che registra il tasso di inflazione maggiore dal 1990. Si prevede un’apertura al ribasso per le principali borse europee.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 18th July 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
After digesting the results of Friday’s EU bank stress tests it is quite clear that they weren’t as robust as they could have been, given that only eight banks failed them outright. It is the sixteen other banks that only just passed the tests that particular attention will fall upon. Of particular surprise was the fact that no Portuguese or Irish banks failed the tests, while the tests also revealed that the sixteen banks that had a tier 1 capital ratio of between 5% and 6% would have to raise and extra €26.8bn.
Given that the ECB remains intent on a rate tightening cycle with potential rate rises of 0.75% factored in over the next 12 months with a lot of people on variable rate mortgages in these countries it seems somewhat surprising that Irish and Portuguese banks aren’t more vulnerable, than the tests would indicate.
It is becoming increasingly apparent from the markets reaction, with gold and the Swiss franc soaring, that the confidence in politicians to tackle the problems is fast ebbing away.
Comments by Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann highlight the extent of the problems when he indicated that the bank remained opposed to the idea of euro bonds to guarantee all peripheral debt.
In Italy the successful passing of an austerity budget should have seen Italian 10 year bond yields fall back, however they kept pushing higher due to the fact that there appears to be a complete lack of confidence in Prime Minister Berlusconi as a leader.
ECB President Trichet at the weekend reiterated the central banks position that they would not accept bonds as collateral from a defaulting nation, and expressing confidence that the euro would survive, seemingly unwilling to help in any way, throwing the onus back onto the politicians.
Over the other side of the Atlantic things aren’t much better in that traditional safe haven, which is the US dollar.
President Obama continues to push for a much larger deal than the $2.4trn one currently set to be voted on by the Republicans tomorrow in the Republican controlled house, as both Republicans and Democrats continue to play a dangerous game of chicken with the US’s financial reputation.
The damage may already have been done as recent events have already started to alter global perceptions of US bonds as risk free assets.
Ratings agency Standard and Poor’s went further than Moody’s did when it suggested last week that raising the debt ceiling in of itself wouldn’t be enough to stave off a ratings downgrade. It would also have to be dovetailed with a responsible deficit reduction spending plan, and that doesn’t look likely anytime soon.
Of bigger concern to US policymakers is that the economic recovery continues to lose pace with Goldman Sachs downgrading its growth forecasts again for Q2 and Q3 2011, following Friday’s disappointing US economic data.
EURUSD – the single currency continues to find upside momentum constrained by the 100 day MA at 1.4290 and this keeps the downside momentum that we’ve seen in recent weeks intact. Only a break above the average would then target the 55 day MA at 1.4345, but this is already starting to turn over. To open another test of the 200 day average on the downside at 1.3915 we need to break below support around 1.4050. The primary trend line support at 1.3735 from the June 2010 lows at 1.1880 is the major uptrend line for the current rise in the single currency. The only concern is the long shadow on the weekly candle which suggests that there appears to be significant buying interest ahead of the 200 day average at 1.3915.
GBPUSD – while the price action continues to trade between 1.6080 and 1.6180 the expectation is that the next move should be to the downside towards 1.5980 and a retest of the 1.5880 area which is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5340/1.6745 up move. Trend line resistance remains at 1.6245 trend line resistance from the April highs, at 1.6190. The 1.6250/60 area is also a 50% retracement of the down move from the highs at 1.6745 to the recent 1.5780 lows, so is doubly important.
EURGBP – the single currency’s failure to break below trend line support at 0.8740 from the February lows at 0.8410 continues to raise the risk of continued rebounds towards the 0.8850 level.
Nevertheless the bearish weekly reversal signal two weeks ago continues to provide the bias for further weakness on a break of this line and the June lows at 0.8725 which could well prompt further losses towards the 200 day MA at 0.8665.
Above the highs at 0.8850 could well target a move towards the 0.8940 area.
USDJPY – after the sharp moves late last week the continued weakness in US bond yields continues to pressure the dollar. The main resistance remains at the May lows of 79.50/60 which needs to be overcome for a move towards the 80.00 level.
Nevertheless while below the May lows at 79.50 the emphasis remains firmly to the downside. The next support lies around last weeks lows around 78.50, while a break below could well target the all-time lows at 76.50.
Equity market calls
FTSE100 is expected to open 19 points lower at 5,825
DAX is expected to open 22 points lower at 7,198
Macro Concerns Playing On AUD
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Ben Le Brun)
The Aussie dollar has started the new trading week in reverse with the ongoing macro concerns still playing on traders’ minds. Westpac’s prediction of future rate cuts in Australia has also set the cat amongst the pigeons with the local unit trading below 106 US cents in early trade.
Arguably the biggest concern for risk currencies is the failure of both sides of US parliament to come to an agreement on raising the deficit ceiling. President Obama described the potential of a US default as akin to “economic Armageddon”. The clock is ticking ever louder in front of the August 2 deadline.
Traders will wait with baited breath as to the outcome of the Eurozone nation’s extraordinary summit on July 21, on initiatives to tackle the ongoing debt crisis and details of a fresh bailout for Greece. On Friday the EU regulator revealed the five Spanish and two Greek banks that failed stress tests. On the face of it, this should give markets a shot of confidence but the reality is that traders are still unsure if the guidelines give a clear indication of exactly who is in hot water.
In the short term it looks as if the AUD will struggle to break through 108 US cents. Tomorrow’s release of the Monetary Policy Minutes in Australia will give traders a further clue into the current thinking of the RBA. Overall, though, it is the macro picture that we will look to for guidance.
NZ CPI Headline Figure At 21 Year High
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Andrew May
It is purely a question now of ‘when and how’ Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Dr. Allan Bollard will increase the overnight cash rate to cool the NZ economy, on news of the highest core inflationary figure since June 1990.
New Zealand households are faced with a 21 year high headline figure of 5.3% (year on year) for median goods and services. Markets had been expecting and factoring in a figure of 5.1% (year on year). Quarterly inflation of 1% was (in the three months to June 30) above expectations 0.8% for the March quarter, 2.3% for December 2010 and 1.1% in September respectfully last year. Statistics New Zealand cited rising transport, food, power and housing prices combined with last October’s GST increase, as the driving factors which pushed the annual headline inflation figure dramatically upward.
In the last quarter, transport costs rose 2.7% (the biggest single contributor to CPI), with petrol prices rising 4%, international air fares gaining 6.8% and domestic air fares up 8%. Food prices rose 1.1% paced by a 1.5% gain for groceries and a whopping 6.7% increase on vegetables. The price of tomatoes soared 64% (largely reflective of supply disruptions from the Queensland floods).
This annual CPI increase was the largest since a 7.3% annual gain in the second quarter of 1990, which also reflected a GST rate rise to 12.5% from 10%. GST is now 15%.
These upward figures closely track another upward surprise move. GDP figures came in late last week well above expectations pushing the NZD to post float highs of USD 0.85c. And although the high NZD has been allowing some ‘slack’ in the softening of prices for imported goods and petrol, economists are predicting a larger and earlier rate hike of up to 50bpts in December to help assist RBNZ’s target band inflation rate of 1 – 3% over the medium term.