Forex Morning Comments: i mercati credono in un accordo per l’innalzamento del tetto del debito Usa
Non si modifica il quadro di insieme entro il quale si muove la moneta unica, che ieri ha recuperato parte del terreno perso a seguito del buon esito dell’asta spagnola: i livelli da monitorare rimangono $1,3915 e 1,4290. L’Euro non ha pressochè reagito ai commenti di un membro della Bce secondo il quale la banca centrale sarebbe pronta ad acconsentire un defualt selettivo del debito greco, smentendo di fatto la posizione già espressa da Trichet: secondo alcuni commentatori, le parole di Nowotny potrebbero preparare una marcia indietro dell’ Eurotower proprio su questo punto. Si affievoliscono così le chance di trovare una soluzione nel corso del summit di domani, soprattutto dopo che la Merkel ha già dismesso le speranze di una soluzione a breve. Dall’altra parte dell’Oceano sembra aprirsi un varco nella contrapposizione tra Repubblicani e Democratici circa l’accordo per innalzare il limite dell’indebitamento Usa, una notizia che ha contribuito al ritorno della propensione al rischio degli investitori che – supportati anche dai buoni dati macro e dai risultati di Apple – hanno approfittato per riposizionarsi al rialzo, beneficiando indirettamente anche le monete che incorporano i tassi più elevati come il Dollaro Australiano.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 20th July 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
The single currency managed to claw back ground from the initial sell off earlier this week after Spain managed to get away an auction of 12 and 18 month T-bills albeit at much higher yields of 3.702% and 3.902% respectively.
The single currency also shrugged off comments by ECB governing council member Jens Nowotny that the ECB might be prepared to countenance a selective default of Greek debt as a way forward, putting him at odds with recent comments made by ECB President Trichet. There is a chance that this apparent divergence of opinion could be a ploy by the ECB to prepare the ground for a tactical retreat on this particular point, given the fact that Nowotny’s comments weren’t slapped down.
This saw Greek 2 year yields surge even higher towards 40%, however hopes remain for some form of agreement at Thursday’s EU summit.
Prospects of significant progress though, remain slim tomorrow, after German Chancellor Angela Merkel played down hopes of a quick solution, with the IMF weighing in with a dire warning about the costs to the world economy of a failure to obtain a solution this week.
In the US there also appears to be some hope of agreement with respect to the debt ceiling wrangling after President Obama backed a bi-partisan deficit reduction plan of $3.7trn put together by six senators of both political persuasions. While this is surely grounds for optimism and has gained tacit support from some Republicans, it would appear that Speaker of the House of Representatives Republican John Boehner has stated that the proposal continues to fall short of Republican expectations, thus reinforcing perceptions that Republicans are continuing to play party politics with the debt ceiling, and will probably string it out until the eleventh hour in the hope of wringing out further concessions.
The pound will be in the spotlight for a change today with the release of this months latest Bank of England minutes. In recent weeks there has been an expectation that sentiment could well become more dovish given the recent lacklustre data seen in recent weeks, and there has been some talk of the committee starting to lean towards the position of Adam Posen, who has consistently argued for more help for the economy in the form of an additional £50bn worth of quantitative easing. If this view is shown to have some credence we could well see some sterling weakness immediately after the release of the minutes.
EURUSD – no change in view here as the single currency remains sandwiched between the 100 day MA at 1.4290 and the 200 day MA support at 1.3915. This week’s early test of the 1.4020 level and 200 week MA, has prompted a rebound back above 1.4200, bringing the 100 day MA back into sight.
Only a break above the 100 day average would then target the 55 day MA at 1.4345, but this is already starting to turn over. To open another test of the 200 day average on the downside at 1.3915 we need to break below support around 1.4000. The primary trend line support at 1.3750 from the June 2010 lows at 1.1880 is the major uptrend line for the current rise in the single currency.
GBPUSD – still in the broad trading range identified yesterday between 1.6000 and 1.6200. As suspected might happen yesterday we saw the previous support at 1.6080 act as a pivot to ratchet back to the 1.6180 level that had acted as resistance last week. The 1.6080 level should now act as support initially but as was the case earlier this week we could see a move back towards 1.6000 on a break below it. The expectation remains for a move towards 1.5980 to unfold and a retest of the 1.5880 area which is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.5340/1.6745 up move. Trend line resistance can now be found at 1.6230 trend line resistance from the April highs, at 1.6745. The 1.6250/60 area is also a 50% retracement of the down move from the highs at 1.6745 to the recent 1.5780 lows, so is also important.
EURGBP – until we get a rebound above the resistance and 55 day MA at 0.8835/50 the downside scenario remains intact, despite the recent bullish snapback that we saw at the beginning of this week.
The strength of this rebound suggests we could well have seen the lows in the short term, but we won’t know for sure until a break above the resistance at 0.8835/50 where we have the 55 day MA.
Nevertheless the bias still remains bearish given the weekly reversal signal two weeks ago and we still look for a move towards the 200 day MA at 0.8665. Above the highs at 0.8850 could well target a move towards the 0.8940 area.
USDJPY – sometimes watching the yen can be like watching paint dry and this is no different. The main resistance remains at the May lows of 79.50/60 which needs to be overcome for a move towards the 80.00 level.
Nevertheless while below the May lows at 79.50 the emphasis remains to the downside. The next support lies around last weeks lows around 78.50, while a break below could well target the all-time lows at 76.50.
AUD Prospers On Better Global News, Moves Towards 1.0750
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
Traders did not need a second invitation to jump into risk assets following encouraging news on virtually all fronts, with the Australian Dollar surging over a cent higher in lively trade.
The bumper Apple earnings result, advancement of US deficit reduction plan and surprisingly good US housing data enabled the market to forget all its troubles and fears, even if just for a day, ahead of the upcoming EU summit on Thursday.
Developments on the US debt reduction plan were definitely a step in the right direction and served to appease the market. The Wall Street rally opened the door for higher yielding currencies to soar. In the case of the AUD, the currency did not dwell for long on the ‘middle of the road’ monetary policy stance by the RBA. The wait-and-see approach by the RBA makes complete sense as market conditions do not stand still. Any improvement in global financial markets over the coming months could well have the RBA leaning firmly back towards a rate hike as the next move. A move to 5% interest rates in December is by no meams out of the question.
For the session today, the AUD will look to trade in the 1.0690 to 1.0760 range as we await further developments from the US and Europe. From a risk asset point of view, a further easing of Spanish and Italian Bond yield prices would be a positive. After such a big rally there is a always a concern of an immediate setback, so any negative headlines overnight could see the AUD retreat to 1.0650 ahead of the looming EU Summit.