Forex Morning Comments: la propensione al rischio torna protagonista
Sembra finalmente essere arrivato il momento in cui Europa e Stati Uniti hanno deciso di rimettere ordine nelle rispettive case e la propensione al rischio è tornata ad essere protagonista delle sedute di trading. L’Euro ha messo nel mirino quota $1,4576 ribaltando il trend ribassista dopo avere ripreso ieri il 2,5% sulla notizia dell’accordo sull’estensione dei poteri del Fondo Salvastati (che per il momento dovrebbe essere sufficiente a contenere i rendimenti dei titoli italiani e spagnoli sotto il 6%), che dovrà comunque ancora passare per l’approvazione di 27 Parlamenti, primo tra i quali quello di Berlino, con la maggioranza dei tedeschi che potrebbe non essere d’accordo a fare la parte del maggior prestatore.Ieri il nuovo massimo dello Yen sul DollaroUsa a 78,25 tiene ferma la barra verso ulteriori rialzi della moneta giapponese con i minimi storici di 76.50 a portata di mano. Balzo anche del Dollaro Australiano, che vede ora come ormai prossimo l’obiettivo a 1.10. Si prevede un’apertura positiva per le maggiori borse europee.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 22th July 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Yesterday’s EU summit took some bold steps forward to possible fiscal union with a number of new measures including a new €109bn aid package, with an extra €50bn in the form of debt buybacks from the private sector. The powers of the EFSF have also been extended with loan maturities extended from seven years to fifteen years and the interest rates to Greece, Portugal and Ireland cut to 3.5%, bringing the rates more into line with IMF rates.
The €440bn EFSF will also be allowed to intervene in bond markets to put a lid on yields, which also begs the question, is it big enough, given the problems in Spain and Italy.
The actual €440bn is also probably smaller than that given that if there is a problem in either of these countries they won’t be able to contribute their share, which begs the question of how does it get increased as it will probably need considerably more capital than it currently has to be effective.
What it does mean is that in effect Germany has become the lender of last resort for a European Monetary Fund, something that may not go down well at all with the majority of 82 million Germans inside Germany.
Greece will also default on some of its debt, having some of it restructured, though probably not enough to really make a difference, ignoring the objections of Trichet and the ECB, about a default.
The proposed changes in the flexibility to the EFSF in the document will need ratification in the various parliaments of the 27 member countries, by no means a done deal, while given Merkel’s problems at home with respect to voter disquiet about bailouts, and splits in her party, could make for an interesting debate in Germany.
Given that there are no problems in passing the amendments through the various parliaments EU leaders appear to have bought some more time. How much more remains to be seen.
In economic data out later this morning German IFO for July is likely to show further declines in business expectations in light of the recent turmoil in Europe. Expectations are for the index to fall to 105, while the current assessment is expected to slip to 122.3 from 123.3.
Yesterdays disappointing German and Euro zone PMI’s illustrated starkly the recent turmoil in Europe has had on sentiment, as euro zone PMI only just managed to make it into expansionary territory.
EURUSD – the bearish view turned out to be the wrong one with the single currency taking out the 100 day and 55 day MA in quick succession and targeting a move towards the July high at 1.4576. The euro could well find resistance on the way here though at 1.4460, which is trend line resistance from the 1.4940 highs. The euro should now find support around the 55 day and 100 day MA both at 1.4305. Only a move back and close below 1.4300 would reopen a test of the downside, back towards 1.4150.
GBPUSD – the pound managed to break out of its recent trading range, pushing through 1.6200 and breaking trend line resistance at 1.6210 from the highs at 1.6745. It also broke above the 1.6260 area the 50% retracement of the down move from the highs at 1.6745 to the recent 1.5780 lows. This break now targets 1.6380 which is the 61.8% retracement of the same move. A move above 1.6380 targets 1.6520. This break higher delays any prospect of a move lower in the short term, with support coming in around the 1.6220/30 area. Only a break below 1.6180 retargets the 1.6080 pivot.
EURGBP – until we get a rebound above the resistance and 55 day MA at 0.8835/50 the downside scenario remains intact, despite yesterday’s bullish rise. The strength of this rebound suggests we could well have seen the lows in the short term, but we won’t know for sure until a break above the resistance at 0.8835/50 where we have the 55 day MA. Above the highs at 0.8850 could well target a move towards the 0.8895 initially and then the 0.8940 area, which is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from 0.9085 to the 0.8705 lows this week.
USDJPY – while below the main resistance at the May lows of 79.50/60 the boas remains for further declines. Yesterday’s new low at 78.25 keeps the bias firmly to the downside after the spike below last weeks lows at 78.50. The all time lows below 76.50 remain a key target, however with the threat of intervention hanging over the market; it could well be susceptible to sharp short squeezes.
Purple Patch For Risk Assets Continues
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
The chequered flag was dropped on the race to re-enter the risk trade this week, which has resulted in the Euro and Australian dollar spring-boarding over 2.5% higher from their early-week lows. Risk assets have definitely hit a purple patch courtesy of pleasing developments across the globe.
The US and Eurozone appear to be getting their respective economic houses in order, which has paved the way for this week’s buying spree in the market. The 109 Billion Euro bailout package announced was more concrete than many had expected, and it should help to keep Italian and Spanish Bond yields below 6% for the time being.
Little more than 3 weeks ago the AUDUSD rate had sunk to 1.0390, and the high water mark of 1.10 was starting to seem all but a distant memory. However the recent surge back past 1.08 has 1.10 firmly within the Aussie Dollars sights again. How long the current buying euphoria lasts will have a big say in how high the AUD shoots.
For the trading session today, the AUDUSD rate should find support in the 1.0775 to 1.0870 range ahead of German IFO Business Climate data this evening. If the Euro continues to track towards 1.45 the Aussie will likely go along for the ride.