Forex Morning Comments: riflettori puntati sugli Stati Uniti, l’oro mette a segno nuovi record
Euro in via di rafforzamento in apertura di settimana (prossimo target a $1,4576) mentre l’attenzione degli investitori si sposta verso gli sviluppi del dibattito parlamentare americano teso ad ottenere un accordo per un innalzamento del tetto del debito. Il rischio di un downgrading delle agenzie di rating questa settimana nei confronti del debito Usa è più che probabile mentre anche il rendimento dei Treasuries, finora contenuto, potrebbe schizzare verso l’alto. Questa mattina la risposta del mercato non si è fatta attendere: l’Oro si è nuovamente apprezzato verso nuovi record supportando così anche il Dollaro Australiano, che in un primo momento aveva perso terreno:ora i target sono tra 1,076 e 1,088 o anche 1,09 qualora giungessero notizie positive dagli States. Settimana che si presenta difficiile per il Dollaro Usa: i timori per un default ne spingeranno le vendite mentre di un eventuale accordo sul debito potrebbero beneficiare soprattutto le monete che pagano rendimenti più alti. La Banca del Giappone potrebbe intervenire nei prossimi giorni per sostenere il cambio contro il Dollaro, qualora lo Yen dovesse tornare sui minimi storici.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 25th July 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
With a fiscal crisis in Europe temporarily postponed the focus of the markets has now shifted towards the US and the continued wrangling between Democrat and Republican politicians with respect to raising the debt ceiling, as well as agreeing a budget that will prevent a potentially damaging ratings downgrade from the credit ratings agencies.
The differences between the two parties remain political with Democrats calling for a balanced approach between spending cuts and tax rises, while the Republican side remain ideologically opposed to any forms of tax rises in agreeing a new budget plan.
The Republicans look set to back a two step plan with respect to the debt ceiling with a proposal to agree a short term rise in the ceiling matched by spending cuts over a ten year period, tied to a plan to cut spending further down the line. Up until now the markets have given US politicians the benefit of the doubt with respect to passing a package, taking the view that despite all the posturing neither side would be stupid enough to risk a run on US treasuries, as well as the likelihood of a damaging default.
Treasuries have so far been largely immune from the turbulence in financial markets as a result of the turmoil in Europe. As the 2nd August deadline looms ever closer without any agreement, this could well change and push yields higher.
In Europe the fall-out in Germany has started over last week’s new bailout package for Greece with a firestorm of criticism coming Angela Merkel’s way in her apparent cave in over changes to the EFSF. Her old economic adviser and now new head of the Bundesbank Jens Weidmann is one of many critics who accuse her of taking risks with Germany’s fiscal sovereignty.
With any changes to the EFSF needing parliamentary approval last weeks Brussels agreement looks as if it could well have been the easy bit as the changes start to be debated in EU member parliaments. In response to last Thursday’s events ratings agency Moody’s this morning downgraded Greece, this time to “Ca” with a developing outlook, citing the likelihood that private creditors will incur substantial economic losses on their holdings of government debt. As a result gold prices have surged in Asia hitting new record highs as investors seek a haven away from fears of a possible default and an almost certain US credit ratings downgrade, if events continue in their current direction. In the UK house prices fell for a third month in July and are likely to continue on their recent downward trend, Hometrack says.
EURUSD – having broken above both the 55 day and 100 day MA in quick succession last week the risk remains for further gains towards the July high at 1.4576. The euro could well find resistance on the way here at 1.4450/60, which is trend line resistance from the 1.4940 highs. This could provoke a test back towards the breakout level at 1.4300. The euro should now find support around the 55 day and 100 day MA both at 1.4305/10. Only a move back and close below 1.4300 would reopen a test of the downside, back towards 1.4150.
GBPUSD – last weeks break above the 1.6260 area which was the 50% retracement of the down move from the highs at 1.6745 to the recent 1.5780 lows, the momentum remains positive for a move towards 1.6380 which is the 61.8% retracement of the same move. A move above 1.6380 targets 1.6520. If the pound slips below 1.6250/60 then we could well get a move back towards 1.6180/1.6200 which acted as strong resistance for most of last week. Only move below 1.6180 retargets the 1.6080 pivot.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to find the 0.8835/50 area a difficult nut to crack. While it does so the likelihood of more range trading appears likely until such time as we either break above the 55 day MA, or post a daily break below trend line support at 0.8760. Above the highs at 0.8850 could well target a move towards the 0.8895 initially and then the 0.8940 area, which is the 61.8% retracement of the down move from 0.9085 to the 0.8705 lows this week.
USDJPY – while below the main resistance at the May lows of 79.50/60 the boas remains for further declines. Another new low in early Asia trading at 78.15 keeps the bias firmly to the downside after breaking below the lows earlier this at 78.50. The all time lows below 76.50 remain a key target, however with the threat of intervention hanging over the market; it could well be susceptible to sharp short squeezes.
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
The market looks set to dance to the tune set by US politics this week. The jubilant buying of risk assets which was on display last week will be placed firmly on hold until an agreement on the US debt ceiling is reached.
Regardless of the outcome from Congress, the US dollar looks likely to be in for a tough week. Fear of a default by the US will see the Greenback sold off, whilst an agreement to raise the debt ceiling by a meaningful amount will see better-yielding currencies outperform the US Dollar as part of a confidence play.
The Bank of Japan will be paying meticulous attention to the Dollar-Yen rate this week. The Yen is already looking uncomfortably strong for their liking, and any moves lower in the USDJPY rate towards 77.50 could spark intervention by Japanese officials.
With Asian equity markets well in the red today, the Australian dollar has slipped marginally lower but remains well bid above the 1.08 level. The AUD has been cushioned from some of the ‘risk-off’ selling in the market today by the record-setting gold price.
The AUD will look to trade the 1.0760 to 1.0880 range ahead of CPI data mid-week. PPI numbers today came in above forecast, which gave a slight lift and could be a prelude to a sharp CPI print on Wednesday. The currency could make a run past 1.09 later in the week pending some favourable outcomes on the US debt ceiling issue and local inflation numbers.