Forex Morning Comments: riflettori puntati sulla Fed, in arrivo il QE3?

Scritto il alle 10:14 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Analista di CMC Markets) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader).

La giornata odierna sembrerebbe impostata per una nuova ondata di vendite sui mercati azionari a seguito dei cali messi a segno ieri da Wall Street, al confronto dei quali ciò che accade sul fronte dei cambi può apparire addirittura banale. L’Euro continuerà a muoversi entro la forchetta compresa tra $1,40 e 1,45: uno spunto rialzista è ipotizzabile solo a seguito della rottura della resistenza posta a 1,4575. I governi sembrano rifugiarsi negli acquisti in Oro, mentre oggi l’attenzione degli investitori sarà in direzione degli Usa, dove, a seguito delle vendite massicce delle ultime sedute, si attende di conoscere la posizione della Fed in merito alla possibilità di un terzo QE: le uniche munizioni rimaste alla banca centrale americana sembrano essere quelle di mantenere i tassi ai minimi, oltre a ridurre il tasso di deposito applicato dalla Fed alle banche al fine di iniettare maggiore liquidità al mercato.
Rispetto alla crisi di tre anni fa, infatti, la Fed sembra avere le armi spuntate soprattutto in considerazione del fatto che il governo americano dovrà implementare le misure di austerità previsti dall’accordo al Congresso.

London – 9th August 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)

Yesterday’s plunge in stock markets looks likely to be repeated today, after last nights massive falls on Wall Street, while currency markets in comparison have been quite tame.

UK and German equity markets are set to open over 200 points lower as fears of a global recession has prompted investors to head for the hills in their droves.  The actions by the European Central Bank in buying up peripheral bonds yesterday has had some effect in the bond markets with Italian and Spanish 10 year bond yields falling sharply back below 6%.

Even so if EU politicians think this will resolve the problems in Europe they are likely to be severely disappointed, given continued rhetoric from Germany opposed to any increase in the EFSF and German foreign minister Westerwelle rejecting the idea that euro bonds are a means to easing the economic crisis in the euro zone, saying that sovereign states must retain responsibility for budgets and debt.
Concerns about Q3 growth prospects in the UK could well be reinforced this morning with the release of industrial and manufacturing production data for June with expectations of a significant drop from May’s numbers.

Expectations are for a drop to 0.4% from 0.8% for industrial production, while manufacturing is expected to drop from 1.8% to 0.3%.

Trade balance numbers for June are expected to come in at -£8.1bn from -£8.48bn in May. The Chancellor will no doubt be hoping for some good news here given that in light of recent figures, he is currently on target to miss his borrowing targets for 2011.  With the Bank of England quarterly inflation report due tomorrow any disappointment here is likely to be a prelude to a significant downgrade of this year’s growth forecast. 

Later this afternoon markets get the first opportunity to gauge the Federal Reserve’s response to the latest turmoil in financial markets, with the latest FOMC meeting.  Some market participants will be looking to gauge whether the Fed will give any clues as to the timing of a possible QE3, given the massive falls in equity markets in recent days, however it could well be the only thing the Fed are likely to do is downgrade their growth forecasts for the US economy, while reiterating their intention to keep rates low for an extended period, given that their monetary policy toolbox is starting to look a little depleted.

EURUSD – the single currency blew through the 55 and 100 day MA’s between 1.4320 and 1.4345 in Asia but was unable to sustain the move through it despite making a high of 1.4425. The major resistance remains around the July highs at 1.4575/80. The bias continues to remain for a move lower whilst in the 1.4000/1.4500 range of the past few weeks; however the support just above the 200 week MA at 1.4030 remains a tough nut to crack.

GBPUSD – whatever the market throws at it the pound seems to be able to hold above the 1.6250/60 support area. The market remains in a trading range for now between 1.6240 and 1.6500. The 1.6250 level remains a key support area.  If the pound is able to sustain a move below 1.6250/60 then we could well get a move back towards 1.6180/1.6200 which acted as strong resistance for most of mid July.  Only a move below 1.6180 retargets the 1.6080 pivot.

EURGBP – the single currency continues find some support on its 200 day MA around 0.8660.
A close below the 200 day MA has the potential to retarget the May lows at 0.8610 and ultimately the trend line support at 0.8540 from the 2010 lows at 0.8065. Rallies could run into trend line resistance at 0.8775, from the 0.9085 highs in June. Beyond that the larger resistance remains at 0.8830.

USDJPY – last week s intervention certainly cleared out some short positions, but it hasn’t changed the overall down trend after the failure to close above the 79.50/60 area, despite an overspill to 80.25.
Unless we see further intervention we could well see a further drift back down towards the major support at the twin lows at 76.25. It still needs a move through and close above the 79.50/60 area to really kick on and push through the 80 level and 55 day MA towards the trend line resistance at the 81.00 level.

Severe Volatility Grips Our Markets
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)

A horror start to the day was felt across all sectors. The sheer panic to sell at any costs was indiscriminate from the market open and absolutely astounding. The heavy margin call selling pushed our market down over 5% before relief came in the form of China’s CPI data.

It seems fears of recessions across the globe were manifesting themselves through stocks until China saved the day. Larger cap stocks faired better than small caps during the onslaught as investors looked to find safety in companies that have known earnings.

Midday buying hit out screens as China’s CPI revealed non food inflation was lower than last month implying that inflation may have peaked. The result quelled fears that China may have to raise interest rates soon.

It now seems the market rests its hopes on the Chinese to see us through. The Chinese CPI result gave
traders the starting gun to buy well undervalued Australian stocks sending the market screaming almost 250 points higher.  It obvious that traders feel our market is well oversold. Fortune definitely favoured the brave today – those willing to dip their toe back in were generously rewarded.  When the Fed meets tonight I expect some sort of decision will be made to calm the markets. Suggestions lie around ensuring low interest rates continue whilst I believe there is a need to reduce the Federal Reserve Bank deposit rate to encourage the banks to lend their cash into the economy.

One thing is for sure though, the US government has no more bullets to fire as they plan to implement austerity measures and the Fed is less potent than it was in 2008 during the GFC.

The one stand out performer during this crisis is Gold; it seems central banks are buying gold as a way of protection and devaluation of their own currencies. Unlike the GFC where gold was sold to sure up margin calls in companies, investors are seeking gold as they fear for the state of governments.

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