M. Hewson: il cable verso i massimi di aprile
I dati deludenti sulla disoccupazione inglese e la notizia che i “falchi” rialzisti all’interno della BoE sono ritornati sui propri passi non sembrano aver danneggiato la Sterlina (in rialzo sul Dollaro da cinque giorni): la convinzione più diffusa ora è che occorra combattere il ristagno economico più che il rialzo dei prezzi; cable orientato a recuperare i livelli massimi di aprile qualora riesca ad oltrepassare stabilmente 1,6550. Il ritorno dell’Euro sopra $1,4550 di ieri, anche se di breve durata, non ha mutato il quadro ribassista nonostante la rottura di 1,4465: la resistenza da rompere al rialzo rimane 1,4575. Il cambio DollaroYen continua a mantenersi sopra 76,20 nonostante la perdurante debolezza dei rendimenti dei titoli decennali americani: finchè questi non supereranno il 2,5% sarà dura assistere ad un rally del biglietto verde.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 18th August 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Disappointing UK unemployment data yesterday doesn’t appear to have harmed the pound too much in the last 24 hours, and neither did the revelation that MPC members Martin Weale and Spencer Dale reversed their votes to raise rates, meaning that there was a 9-0 majority to hold rates for the first time in over a year.
This drawing in of claws by the two hawks reinforces the fact that the MPC appear to be more concerned about the lacklustre economy than the threat of rising inflation, and it could be argued that the MPC have pretty much thrown in the towel in even attempting to combat rising prices in the hope they come down all by themselves, which could be a extremely risky strategy.
Unlike Bernanke at the Federal Reserve they can’t really come out and say that rates will remain at low levels until at least 2013, but they may as well have done. Today’s release of July retail sales are expected to slip back from June’s surprisingly strong 0.8% to a more meagre 0.4%, dragging the annualised rate down to a paltry 0.1%. In any case this could be as good as it gets for Q3 given that this months figures, which are due out next month, could well be even worse given the riots earlier this month, and could increase fears that Q3 growth could contract.
In the US concerns that inflationary pressures are building in the US economy were reinforced yesterday after core producer prices for July jumped 0.4%, double expectations while the annualised figure jumped to 7.2%.
If CPI figures out later today go the same way it makes it very doubtful that the Fed can consider any further stimulus measures at Jackson Hole later this month.
CPI for July is expected to slip back on an annualised basis to 3.3% from 3.6%, however core prices are expected to increase to 1.7%, from 1.6%. The monthly figures are both expected to increase by 0.2%, while weekly jobless claims are expected to stay the wrong side of 400k.
This week’s US industrial production figures were a pleasant surprise to the upside, but given Monday’s disappointing empire manufacturing, this afternoon’s Philadelphia Fed survey for August will be closely scrutinised for any signs of a pick up in activity from the previous 3.2 reading. Expectations are not high though with 3 being the consensus.
EURUSD – yesterday’s brief push above 1.4500 proved to be somewhat short-lived and does nothing to change the view of a lower euro, despite the break above the resistance from the June highs at 1.4700 at 1.4465. The market continues to trade within the broader 1.4000/1.4500 range, with the major resistance around the July highs at 1.4575/80. To open up a move towards the 1.4030 area the euro needs to push back below the 55 day MA at 1.4330, which has acted as support for the last two days.
The major support remains just above the 200 week MA at 1.4030 which remains a tough nut to crack.
There is also minor trend line support from the 1.3835 lows currently around the 1.4150 level.
GBPUSD – five successive up days has seen the pound break through trend line resistance at 1.6450 from the 1.6750 highs in April. If the pound is able to get through the May highs at 1.6550, then we could well see a move back to the highs this year at 1.6745. It does look a little overbought on the 4 hour charts so we could well see a pullback towards 1.6350, or even the 1.6250/60 area which has acted as solid support for the best part of a week now. Back below 1.6220 retargets 1.6170 while the 200 day MA remains the key support at 1.6085/95, and a sustained break below could well target further losses.
EURGBP – yesterday’s fall has seen the single currency re-test the 0.8700 area. The key support remains around the 200 day MA around 0.8660/70 and while below last weeks’ highs the potential remains for a move lower. Rallies continue to be capped above the 0.8800 area and the 55 day MA at 0.8835. It needs a daily close above this level to target higher levels, and a move towards 0.8900.
A close below the 200 day MA has the potential to retarget the May lows at 0.8610 and ultimately the trend line support at 0.8545 from the 2010 lows at 0.8065.
USDJPY – still holding up above the 76.20/30 area despite the weakness in 10 year US bond yields.
The risk remains for further losses but the market needs to take out the base that appears to be building up around the major lows around the 76.25/30 area. Any move below these key lows could well see further US dollar losses towards 74.50. 10 year US treasury yields continue to remain very low until these yields rally above 2.5% it is hard to see how the US dollar can rally at the moment. It really needs to rally beyond the 77.30 area to kick on towards the 55 day MA and bigger resistance level at 79.50/60.
Once through the 79.50/60 area it then needs to kick on towards the trend line resistance at the 80.85 level.