Forex Morning Comments: euro e dollaro pronosticati in ulteriore calo
Gli investitori stanno iniziando ad essere seriamente preoccupati del fatto che una nuova recessione sia ormai alle porte e che la cassetta degli attrezzi a disposizione dei policy-makers per tamponare le falle sia ormai esaurita: per questo motivo Euro e Dollaro sono valute destinate ad accelerare i propri ribassi. Dall’altra parte della Manica, invece, nonostante i dati deludenti sulle vendite al dettaglio e sulle premesse per un futuro QE, la Sterlina sembra reggere bene le proprie posizioni, data la grande aleatorietà sull’efficacia di tale strumento.
Qualora il dato odierno sui prezzi alla produzione tedeschi dovessero scendere, come già visto nel resto d’Europa, ci troveremmo nella curiosa situazione di prezzi crescenti in Usa e Uk ma calanti nel Vecchio Continente e ciò potrebbe aumentare le pressioni sulla Bce affinchè inizi a tagliare i tassi prendendo così la direzione opposta rispetto a quella vista finora.
L’Oro continua a mietere nuovi record contro il Dollaro Usa, man mano che gli investitori si interrogano circa le prossime mosse della Fed, le cui prospettive di QE3 sembrano allontanarsi sempre di più. DollaroYen debole ma sempre sopra 76.20: fintantochè i rendimenti sul decennale americano non ritorneranno sopra il 2% sarà difficile attendersi una rally del biglietto verde. Dollaro Australiano sceso rapidamente da 1.05 a 1.03 : è difficile che gli asset che si apprezzano maggiormente in caso di mercati in salita possano fare bene al momento, data la paura che Wall Street possa tornare a perdere il 5% quasi ogni giorno e con l’indice Vix tornato sopra quota 40. Viceversa, una rapida inversione del mercato potrebbe portare velocemente l’Aussie sopra 1.05.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 19th August 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Fears about a global recession have increased in recent days on the back of some growth downgrades and the inability of policymakers to get ahead of the current crisis, both in Europe and the US. The realisation amongst investors is slowly dawning that the various toolboxes that policymakers have at their disposal are starting to look a little threadbare. In short the bullets are running out and the euro and the US dollar are continuing to sink.
Concerns about future QE and disappointing retail sales yesterday don’t appear to be weighing on the pound that much in recent days, though that probably has more to do with the fact that out of the US dollar and the single currency, it is the best of a pretty sorry bunch.
Even though the change in tone is shifting back towards Adam Posen’s view there is a huge difference between talking about QE and actually doing it and there is a huge question mark about its effectiveness given the lack of success it has had in the US.
Today we can expect to find out if Chancellor George Osborne is able to get back on track with the nations public finances. Year to date the numbers have not been great, however this month could be an opportunity to improve on that with expectations for borrowing to come down to £0.3bn in July, from £12bn in June. Before that however we have the small matter of German producer prices for July which are expected to come in at 0.1% month on month and 5.3% annually, down from 5.6% in June.
If prices continue to fall back as they have been in the rest of Europe in the past week, we could have the odd situation of rising inflation in the US and the UK, with prices going in the opposite direction in Europe, which could increase the pressure on the ECB to think about reducing rates and reverse its most recent rate hike.
Gold prices continue to hit record highs against the US dollar as investors continue to speculate about next weeks meeting at Jackson Hole, though with inflation rising and yesterday’s shocking fall in Philadelphia Fed activity, the odds of QE3 are starting to look very slim indeed.
EURUSD – the market continues to trade within the broader 1.4000/1.4500 range, after slipping back from 1.4500 earlier this week, with the major resistance remaining between July’s peaks between at 1.4535 and 1.4575/80. To open up a move towards the 1.4030 area the euro needs to push back below the 55 day MA at 1.4330, which has acted as support for the last two days. The major support remains just above the 200 week MA at 1.4030 which remains a tough nut to crack. There is also minor trend line support from the 1.3835 lows currently around the 1.4165 level.
GBPUSD – five successive up days followed by a potential hanging man candle saw the pound slip back below 1.6500 yesterday, which could be a warning of a potential peak. This week’s highs at 1.6600 now become a key level, with the bigger resistance at 1.6745, April highs. It remains a little overbought on the 4 hour charts so we could well see a pullback towards 1.6350, or even the 1.6250/60 area which has acted as solid support for the best part of a week now. Back below 1.6220 retargets 1.6170 while the 200 day MA remains the key support at 1.6085/95, and a sustained break below could well target further losses.
EURGBP – continued weakness on the single currency has seen a break below the 0.8700 area and it looks headed towards the key support around the 200 day MA around 0.8660/70. While below last weeks’ highs the potential remains for a move lower. Rallies continue to be capped above the 0.8800 area and the 55 day MA at 0.8835. It needs a daily close above this level to target higher levels, and a move towards 0.8900. A close below the 200 day MA has the potential to retarget the May lows at 0.8610 and ultimately the trend line support at 0.8545 from the 2010 lows at 0.8065.
USDJPY – still holding up above the 76.20/30 area despite 10 year US bond yields briefly dropping below 2% yesterday. Until these yields rebound it is hard to see much upside for the dollar at the moment. The risk remains for further losses, but the market needs to take out the base that appears to be building up around the major lows around the 76.25/30 area. Any move below these key lows could well see further US dollar losses towards 74.50. It really needs to rally beyond the 77.30 area to kick on towards the 55 day MA and bigger resistance level at 79.50/60.
US And European Recession Fears Send AUD South
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
With the ‘R’ word firmly back in the mindset of traders, the offloading of risk assets from portfolios sent global stock indices scurrying. It is difficult for risk assets to make any sort of sustained run at the moment given the fear that another 5% decline on Wall Street could happen literally any day. Mixed US data was not met with a balanced reaction by the market, with the -30.7 reading on the Manufacturing data being the focus of attention, as this type of reading brought back unpleasant memories of late 2008/early 2009.
The fall of the AUD was in percentage terms more modest than what was experienced last week on similar Wall Street daily disasters. The fall from 1.05 to the low 1.03’s was by no means anything to write home about but at least for the moment it has a decent buffer above parity. However if we experience another series of 5% daily falls in the US this buffer could quickly be erased.
With the VIX back above 40 and the CRB index on the decline the AUD is facing an uphill battle to end the week. Any upcoming reversal of trend by the aforementioned indicators would do the AUD a world of good. If we see another large percentage move on Wall Street tonight in either direction, this will dictate whether the AUD heads to the weekend trading closer to 1.02 or 1.05.