Forex Morning Comments: l’Euro si conferma una moneta estremamente resistente

Scritto il alle 10:29 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Analista CMC Markets) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader)

L’Euro continua a rimanere nell’alveo compreso tra $1,4535 e 1,4575 confermandosi una moneta estremamente resistente alle intemperie provenienti da più parti, non ultimo il dilemma delle garanzie collaterali che la Finlandia pretende di vedersi riconosciute in cambio del proprio contributo finanziario al salvataggio della Grecia. Anche quella che da molti ormai viene indicata come la nuova politica della Bce (nessun ulteriore rialzo dei tassi nel prossimo futuro) che potrebbe preludere ad un taglio, nonostante l’inflazione permanga sopra il 2%, è riuscita a smuovere la moneta unica, così come il rischio concreto che – a seguito della manovra finanziaria ormai annacquata – l’asta dei titoli italiani di oggi possa ritornare a vedere un allargamento degli spread con i Bund tedeschi.
In rafforzamento il cambio DollaroYen con il biglietto verde che sta costruendo una base solida sopra quota 76, preludio di ulteriori possibili guadagni. Dal punto di vista dei mercati, i traders hanno ripreso a fregarsi le mani a seguito delle notizie positive giunte ieri sia dal fronte europeo che da quello Usa e dopo le rassicurazioni di Bernanke venerdì che la Fed è pronta a fare ancora la sua parte, accettando nuovamente di puntare sugli asset a maggiore rischio e smobilitando le posizioni dai cosiddetti beni rifugio come Oro e Petrolio: che questo rappresenti semplicemente una ricopertura delle posizioni o un trend di più lunga durata dipenderà da quanto i mercati sapranno resistere ad una possibile ondata di cattive notizie provenienti nuovamente dall’Europa (debiti sovrani) e dagli Usa (futuri downgrade del debito pubblico): è probabile che il rally possa proseguire per un paio di settimane nella logica “lontano dagli occhi, lontano dal cuore” ma non possiamo credere che i problemi presenti verranno dissolti facilmente.

London – 30th August 2011

(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)

Despite the initial disappointment of no QE3 announcement at Jackson Hole last week, markets took encouragement from Bernanke’s announcement that he would extend next month’s FOMC meeting to two days to fully explore and discuss any range of options for and against further stimulus.

It seems that markets have taken this to mean that we could well see further stimulus, despite the significant barriers against it, both political and fiscal.  The market also took in its stride IMF chief Christine Lagarde’s warning that European banks needed urgent recapitalisation, and that the crisis was entering a dangerous new phase. This call was firmly rebuffed by EU officials with EU commissioner Olli Rehn insisting that the health of EU banks had improved over the past year.  To look at yesterday’s price action markets seem to concur, after news that two Greek banks, EFG Euro Bank and Alpha Bank merged and saw Greek stock
markets rise by the most in 20 years.

The single currency continues to remain resilient without racing away, as doubts remain about the new Greek bailout with Finland remaining steadfast in its insistence on collateral as security for any new loans.  Even comments by Trichet yesterday that the ECB is reviewing the risks to price stability failed to dent the single currency, which is somewhat surprising given that reading between the lines suggests that any further rate rises could well be off the table in the near future, and could well see the next move in rates as lower.

In Italy it would appear that the latest austerity budget could well get watered down which could well bring further pressure to bear on Italian bond yields at today’s auction of 3, 7 and 10 year securities.  Later on today the minutes of this months FOMC meeting could well give an indication of the hurdles faced by Bernanke and further QE in the face of the three dissenters on the committee at next months two day meeting. Before that though US consumer confidence for August is expected to decline further from 59.5 to a reading of 52.

EURUSD – the single currency continues to remain resilient to downside against the US dollar but has, as yet, failed to get above the major resistance remaining between July’s peaks between 1.4535 and 1.4575/80. Above here re-targets the 1.4700 level.  To open up a move towards the 1.4030 area the euro needs to push back and close below the 55 day MA at 1.4330, which has acted as support for the last four days.  There is also minor trend line support from the 1.3835 lows currently around the 1.4260 level. The major support lies around the 1.4030 area where the 200 week moving average sits.

GBPUSD – Friday’s failure to break below the 1.6220 area and 55 day MA once again caught the bears out and provoked a sharp pull back, as the cable remains stuck in its broad range. Only a concerted break below 1.6220 retargets 1.6170 while the 200 day MA remains the key support at 1.6100/10, and a sustained break below could well target further losses.
Pullbacks should continue to find resistance between 1.6450 and 1.6520. 

EURGBP – the push above the 55 day MA did indeed provoke a move higher, however the single currency was unable to take out the August highs at 0.8885 and until it does so the recent range continues to hold sway. To diminish the risk of a break higher we need to say the single currency push back below the 0.8800 level to open up 0.8750 again. The major support remains at the 200 day MA around the 0.8660/70 area. Only a close below the 200 day MA has the potential to retarget the May lows at 0.8610 and ultimately the trend line support at 0.8545 from the 2010 lows at 0.8065. 

USDJPY – the market continues to look as if it is building up a pretty solid base around the major lows around the 76.00 area, and while this holds we could well see further gains.
Any move below these key lows could well see further US dollar losses towards 74.50.  Though last weeks move above 77.20 wasn’t sustained it doesn’t mean the market won’t have another crack at it. If we take out 77.60 then the odds will have shifted further towards a test of the 55 day MA and bigger resistance level at 79.50/60.


Greek Merger Gives Local Traders Confidence
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)

Australian market, which initially indicated a 60 point rise this morning, has faded late into the trading day as we factored in yesterday’s 1.5% relief rally. Banks been the best performing sector today as positive news emerged from a merger deal between Greece’s Alpha and EFG Eurbank.

After a horror month of August the market is now looking to close its shorts and return to some form of normality before month end.

The last couple of day’s rally looks more like short covering for the month end rather than any real belief that growth is picking up across Europe and the US. I think that our market will settle in the next few weeks around 4450 before the next direction decision is made.

As the S+P trades are currently at a long term discount to its price earnings average many traders will see this as a sign to buy up assumed cheap assets. I can understand this logic, however I believe we are trading at these levels because equities are pricing in anaemic growth for years to come and many US equities remain cum a ratingd downgrade.

I believe future analyst downgrades to the US market and continuing EU debt problems will keep a cap on any rebound in equity price. The short covering and relief rally will probably persist for a week or two however the underlying problems have not dissolved; it’s just a matter of “out of sight, out of mind” at the moment.

Bernanke’s speech on Friday was all the market needed to get back on its feet. The fact the Fed has indicated it will respond to further deterioration was the trigger traders needed to cover shorts and book their profits for the month.  The recent falls in gold, rise in the US 10 year bond yields and fall in the VIX all point to a risk on scenario. The “Bernanke put” is back on and traders don’t want to be caught short equities as the world adjusts to the potential for more stimulus.

Major equity indices have broken through technical resistance levels following Friday’s Jackson Hole meeting. The path of least resistance is definitely to the up side in the short term. Signs of a market based and economic recovery are in the wind as a turbulent month draws to a close. Traders conceivably have enough back up support to test the riskier waters of share markets across the globe after Ben Bernanke said that the Federal Reserve have tools at their disposal, should the US economy go to the brink of recession.

The low global sharemarket valuations should at least have long term investors rubbing their hands together. While traders that have short sold the market recently would conceivably be covering their positions.  Last night Wall Street saw further gains on a positive consumer spending data. Stocks rallied strongly as did crude oil, while gold retreated somewhat as investors signalled less emphasis on safe havem assets.

A stated weaker than expected growth rate in the Eurozone has also lead traders to bet Eurozone interest rates will remain on hold despite inflation running above 2%. The change in tact came after Jean Claud Tritchet’s testimony to the European parliament.


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