Forex Morning Comments: la decisione della SNB indebolisce anche lo yen
La politica monetaria interventista della Banca centrale svizzera potrebbe rivelarsi estremamente rischiosa, al di là del respiro di breve periodo che potrà dare alle esportazioni elvetiche, sopratutto qualora la situazione in Europa dovesse peggiorare. L’esempio di Berna ha portato vendite anche sullo Yen, considerato insieme al Franco moneta rifugio, creando un certo nervosismo circa la possibilità che anche la Boj possa fare altrettanto, nonostante il calo dei rendimenti dei titoli americani sui livelli più bassi degli ultimi 65 anni.
Già oggi la sentenza della Corte Costituzionale tedesca sulla legittimità dei salvataggi fiscali nell’Eurozona potrebbe rappresentare un ostacolo insormontabile qualora prendesse una decisione contraria sbarrando la strada ad ulteriori bailouts. L’Euro, dopo aver violato al ribasso la media mobile a 200 giorni posta a $1,4016, potrebbe ora testare 1,3975 prima di aprirsi la strada verso 1,3835. A seguito della pubblicazione del Pil di Canberra (che rende meno probabile un taglio dei tassi da parte della RBA), si prevedono ulteriori apprezzamenti per il Dollaro Australiano.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 7th September 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
Central bank intervention has been a common theme in the past few months, in Japan, the US and Europe, whether it be straightforward intervention, or fiscal stimulus.
Yesterday the Swiss National Bank joined the party unilaterally getting in on the act by setting a peg for the franc at €1.20 and undertaking to throw the kitchen sink at the problem with a new policy backed by an unlimited amount of francs. It remains to be seen whether it will be successful in the long term, but as an interim measure it may well have bought some temporary respite. It does remain an extremely risky policy given the problems in Europe right now and the prospects of further deterioration in the European outlook.
Today’s deliberations in the German constitutional court on the legality of the bailouts in Europe has the potential to be fairly high stakes stuff given that a vote against would throw Europe into further chaos.
The likely outcome probably won’t be too much better in that legislators could well attach a number of firebreaks or safeguards to any new bailouts by way of giving the German parliament stringent vetoing rights with respect to the release of any new bailout funds.
In the UK concerns remain about a continued slowdown in growth ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England rate setting meeting.
Today’s release of August Industrial and Manufacturing Production data for July is expected to increase calls for further measures to stimulate the economy with expectations for the monthly figures to remain broadly flat on a month to month basis, while on a year on year basis industrial production is expected to contract further from -0.3% to -0.4%, while manufacturing is expected to slip from 2.1% to 1.9%.
Unless the figures are significantly poor, it remains unlikely that there will be any move to alter monetary policy at tomorrow’s Bank of England rate setting meeting, even though the matter, will in all likelihood, get vigorous discussion. In Germany similar scrutiny will be brought to bear on its own industrial production figures and as the engine room of Europe any miss here will reverberate more strongly through Europe than elsewhere, with expectations of an increase in the monthly July number from -1.1% in June to 0.5%. The year on year number is expected to remain at 6.7%.
Last night’s decision by the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged at 0.10% was no surprise; however nervousness remains about further intervention in light of the Swiss actions yesterday. The amount of stimulus was left unchanged as the bank looked to assess the effect of the measures taken at the last meeting. Yesterdays’ move by the Reserve Bank of Australia in holding interest rates at their current levels appears to have been justified by this mornings Q2 GDP numbers which came in at much better than expected, with a 1.2% an increase from Q1’s adjusted 0.9% decline, suggesting that the Australian economy remains in much better shape than recent data had suggested.
EURUSD – yesterday’s close below the 200 day MA at 1.4016 shifts the focus towards a weaker euro in the short term, however what is required more than anything is a close below the 200 week MA at 1.4025 and until this occurs we could well be vulnerable to the types of sharp snapbacks seen yesterday morning. Another key support area is trend line support from the 1.1880 lows in 2010 which comes on around 1.3975, and this has held the downside for now, but a break then targets 1.3835 and the July lows. In the interim pullbacks should find resistance below the 100 day MA at 1.4360 which had until last week acted as support for the previous 2 weeks.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s break below 1.5990 which was trend line support from the 2010 lows at 1.4230, now opens up the possibility of further losses towards the July lows at 1.5780.
The daily close below the 200 day MA at 1.6110/20 earlier this week should now act as a cap for any pullbacks, though we could also an overspill towards the 55 day MA at 1.6230 given how oversold the market is at the moment.
EURGBP – no change in view here with the major support remaining at 0.8680/90 which is where the 200 day MA currently sits. This remains the key level on a daily close for a retest of May lows at 0.8610 and ultimately the trend line support at 0.8565 from the 2010 lows at 0.8065. Despite yesterday’s sharp spike above 0.8825 the market failed to close above the 55 day MA, and this keeps the pressure on the downside.
USDJPY – yesterday’s action by the SNB has prompted some yen selling on fears that the Bank of Japan may well follow suit, despite the plunge in US 10 year yields to 65 year lows.
The failure to take out 77.60 keeps the pressure on the downside for now, while a close above will have shifted sentiment towards a test of the 55 day MA at 78.20, and bigger resistance level at 79.50/60. Any move below the key lows at 76.20/30 could well see further US dollar losses towards 74.50.
AUD Propped Up By Strong GDP
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
The Australian dollar moved a cent higher in the morning session. The initial jump higher back through 1.05 came as Asian equity markets put up a good showing today, whilst a speech by the RBA Governor again showed no inclination towards any rate cuts.
The AUD then jumped over a third of a cent on what was a surprisingly healthy looking GDP print. The 1.2% GDP number was above forecast, and the upward revision to the previous quarter was the icing on the cake.
Today’s GDP result will be readily accepted by a market which has been battered and bruised in recent weeks. With each encouraging domestic data release there is a less and less likelihood of the RBA changing their tone towards an easing bias, so understandably the AUD ticked higher in response.
Obviously troubles in Europe and the US can feed through to the local market over time but at this stage of proceedings the macro data is backing up the RBA’s ‘hold fire’ approach on interest rates.
But whilst it is looking like a much brighter day for the AUD, whether it can hold onto these gains is up for grabs as the mood on offshore markets is still bleak. It is a light night of data in the US tonight but things will pick up when Obama addresses the employment situation later in the week. Other highlights coming up include the ECB press conference on Thursday and Australian employment figures tomorrow.
AUD will likely stay in the 1.0530-1.0590 range the rest of the Asian session but if the GDP print catches the attention of offshore investors as Europe opens it could be heading past 1.06 depending on whether European equities can stem the bleeding tonight.