Forex Morning Comments: l’Euro sta chiaramente puntando a nuovi ribassi

Scritto il alle 10:21 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Analista) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader) di CMC Markets.

Nonostante la dichiarazione di progressi rilasciata ieri a seguito dell’incontro tra i rappresentanti greci e la troika, qualora non arrivasse la prossima tranche di fondi, la Grecia farebbe default a Dicembre e già dal prossimo mese non potrebbe più pagare gli stipendi dei dipendenti pubblici. Come se ciò non bastasse, alcune indiscrezioni di stampa greche hanno lasciato intravedere la possibilità che il governo possa organizzare un referendum per chiedere alla popolazione se rimanere nell’Euro o ritornare alla dracma, mentre Standard and Poor’s ha anticipato Moody’s con un downgrade del debito pubblico italiano con outlook negativo, citando le deboli prospettive di crescita e un quadro politico precario. Con questi scenari di breve periodo, gli investitori rimangono fermi e aspettano prima di ributtarsi nelle acque. Sul mercato valutario, l’Euro sta chiaramente puntando a nuovi ribassi, anche se occorre prima oltrepassare  la quota di $1,35 per avere poi come obiettivo 1,3360. Il DollaroYen continua a mantenere intatte le possibilità rialziste del biglietto verde fintantoche rimane inviolata la quota di 76,20. La debolezza dei mercati azionari colpisce anche il Dollaro Australiano, sceso da 1.04 a 1,02.

London – 20th September 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)

If concerns about Greece weren’t enough for the market to digest this week ratings agency Standard and Poor’s shifted the spotlight back onto Italy late last night, as it beat rival agency Moody’s to the punch and downgraded Italy’s sovereign rating by one notch to A/A-1, with a negative outlook citing weakening growth prospects and a fragile political environment. 

Even though last night’s conference call between the troika and the Greek government ended with an air of optimism about it, with reports of some sort of deal being close, the early optimism remains tempered by the admission that “some work still needs to be done”, according to an unnamed official.

The call is set to resume today on agreement on some measures with respect to the 2011 and 2012 budgets needing to be quantified.

Also weighing on sentiment was a story in the Greek newspaper Kathimeri suggesting that
the Greek Prime Minister might be minded to call a referendum on its continued membership of the euro, which if true would throw a whole new variable into the mix. Whether this story is fact or fiction is open to question given the lack of a verifiable source, however it could well tap into the public mood in Greece given the opposition to the various austerity measures at a local level.

In the wake of concern about economic conditions in Germany and the recent slowdown in economic activity the latest German ZEW economic sentiment survey for September is expected to show further deterioration from August’s -37.6 reading to – 45.

President Obama’s jobs speech yesterday predictably got a rather dismissive reaction from Republicans as he pledged around $4trn worth of spending cuts in an attempt to put clear blue water between him and them on deficit reduction, with an undertaking to reform Medicaid, and to make some cuts to Medicare. Around $1.5trn of the measures will come from increasing the tax burden on the US’s richest citizens.

The President pledged to send the proposals to the Joint Committee on Deficit Reduction, which was set up in the past month as part of the deal on the debt ceiling, which agreed to cut the deficit by $1 trillion.

EURUSD – the single currency seems to be struggling to push below 1.3600 in the short term seeing a sharp rebound yesterday, however the low last week around 1.3500 remains the key obstacle to further losses in the short term. Until such time as we see a break of this 1.3500 level the single currency will remain susceptible to sharp rebounds, back towards 1.3800 and Friday’s close.  The next target, on a break of 1.3500, remains between 1.3360 and 1.3405, with 1.3405 being 50% retracement of the entire rally off the 1.1880 lows in 2010 to the highs this year at 1.4940. 1.3050 is the 61.8% retracement of the same move. 

GBPUSD – yesterday saw the pound make an 8 month low against the US dollar at 1.5635, before rebounding, however it would need a move back beyond 1.5780 to target a deeper move back towards 1.5900. The pound looks a touch oversold on the 4 hourly charts and despite yesterday’s lows we could well see a rebound at some point, which could well be triggered by a close beyond 1.5780. It still feels like we could well get further losses towards the 1.5485 level which is the 50% retracement of the 1.4230/1.6745 up move, but we could get a sharp short squeeze first.

EURGBP – the single currency continues to trade broadly within its recent range, pushing briefly below the 200 day MA at 0.8702 before rebounding yesterday.  This failure keeps the possibility of a retest of last weeks highs at 0.8790 and the 55 day MA. The bias still remains for a test back towards the lows at 0.8530, and then on towards 0.8450, but it could well take a little longer to unfold.

USDJPY –another failed attempt to break below the key 76.20/30 support area, keeps the prospects of further gains intact. As long as we can hold above the 76.20/30 area a bounce remains the preferred option on a break through the 55 day MA, just above the 77.90 level.  Continued weakness in US 10 year treasury yields is constraining the upside in the yen here. Any move below the key lows at 76.20/30 could well see further US dollar losses towards 74.50.

Aussie Dollar Tells Moving Tale
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)

With sentiment hitting rock bottom, volumes falling off a cliff and even the bulls turning into bears, stock prices seem nothing about valuations and all about political chaos and financial instability. The last few days have seen massive repatriation of funds out of Australia as the next fear wave grips our markets.

The Aussie dollar tells the tale moving from 1.04 to under 1.02 since the start of the week as a lack of confidence manifests its way through all risk assets.  With no new EFSF proposal and inadequate funds to bail out all of the Euro ‘problem’ countries, the markets remain

Today a further blow to markets came after S&P lowered the sovereign credit ratings of Italy. The downgrade comes on the back of weakening economic growth and political uncertainty. The political hot spot remains directly in the Greek situation where bail out funds are needed to ensure Greece avoids default. The funds look only to be deployed if stringent austerity measures are complied with. One measure to reduce spending will be the mass sacking of public sector workers – a plan that will no doubt see further civil unrest.

Without the next instalment of cash, Greece will default on their sovereign debt obligation in December and ultimately fall short of money to pay its public sector much earlier. A default would render many European banks insolvent and send the region into further anarchy.
As expected we are seeing dismally low volumes across our equity markets, traders now preferring to sit on their hands than dip their toe into the torrent. With a lack of buyers, I would not be surprised to see the Australian markets forming a new trading range lower.


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