Market Commentary: pressione sulle monete più legate al rischio
I mercati finanziari proseguono il loro percorso erratico (un giorno sù e l’altro giù) a causa dell’incertezza dei trader sui risultati concreti del vertice del Consiglio europeo che inizia questo weekend: la retorica conflittuale tra ciò che andrebbe fatto e ciò che si è disposti a fare rimane la ragione principale dell’attuale volatilità sui mercati, quelli valutari in primis con l’Euro che nel corso della stessa seduta passa da $1,3650 a 1,3850. Stessa cosa dicasi per il Dollaro Australiano che oscilla tra 1.0150 e 1.0350 sia a causa degli umori provenienti dall’Europa che al seguito delle performance delle materie prime cui è legato.
Avvicinandoci al fine settimana, sembra che la pressione debba ulteriormente intensificarsi sulle monete considerate più legate al rischio , almeno finchè non vedremo un comunicato decisivo circa le prossime misure concrete che dovrebbero essere concordate dai policymakers. Fino ad allora i trader non riusciranno a fugare il dubbio di trovarsi a che fare con prezzi che incorporino un premio oppure uno sconto rispetto alle attuali valutazioni. Sul fronte delle materie prime, il rame è stata la commodity più penalizzata nelle ultime ore di trading, anche sulla base di alcune indiscrezioni che vorebbero il governo cinese abbandonare la pratica di utilizzare le scorte di rame come garanzia per i prestiti locali.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 21th October 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
Financial markets continue to trade in ‘up one minute, down the next’ mode with uncertainty still clouding traders over what the EU will or won’t deliver in coming days. The conflicting rhetoric emerging from European Leaders over what action will be taken is the prime reason behind the see-saw fashion of trading this week. Take the case of the Euro. Yesterday traders did not seem to know if it should be valued at 1.3850 or 1.3650, so it traded at both and everything in between.
The Australian dollar this week has been wearing a path primarily between 1.0150 and 1.0350 as sentiment goes back and forth from positive to negative in the lead up to the EU summit. Commodity prices have been under pressure this week which has caused the AUD to trade in heavy fashion during Asian trading hours, whilst most of the upside moves have occurred when US equities have spurted higher.
Heading into the weekend, pressure will likely be to the downside for risk currencies, mainly because of the track record that the EU has in terms of dealing with the debt issue up to this point in proceedings.
Until such time as we get a decisive statement from the EU, traders will remain unsure whether current market pricing belongs in the discount or premium category.
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)
Our market is expected to open slightly positive today after gains were made in the US overnight. It will be interesting, however, to see if we hold onto these gains given the significant falls in London base metals prices overnight.
European markets were pushed to two week lows after it was revealed that this weekend’s EU summit was unlikely to reach any concrete decisions. The failure of EU leaders to deliver a timely resolution and increases in the chances of a European recession has hit base metals overnight on the LME. Copper took the brunt of the falls finishing down 6.6% whilst other metals fell between 3.3 and 5,7%.
Talk of the Chinese Government cracking down on the practice of using copper stockpiles to secure local loans also gave weight to the sale of copper overnight. In the US overnight we saw a number of economic data releases which were surprisingly positive.
The Philadelphia Federal Business Activity Index rose from -17.5 to 8.7 in October. The index is a zero neutral measure, and as such provides good news and the first positive read in three months. The Conference Board Leading Index rose by 0.2pct in September and marks the fifth straight month of indicative growth. US markets erased their early losses after a statement was made regarding a second meeting to be held next Wednesday. Hope rests on leader’s ability to deliver a unified solution by Wednesday.