Forex Morning Comments: l’Euro rimarrà in balia degli eventi

Scritto il alle 10:14 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Analista) e Tim Waterer (Senior FX Dealer) di CMC Markets

L’incertezza continua a occupare il centro della scena sul palcoscenico europeo e mondiale: fintantochè Francia e Germania non si accorderanno sull’haircut da imporre ai privati sui titoli del debito greco (con le banche riottose ad accettare una sforbiciata superiore al 40%, considerate anche le ricapitalizzazioni per 100 milairdi di euro almeno di cui si sta trattando) e sul nuovo funzionamento del fondo Efsf, l’Euro rimarrà in balia degli eventi, congelando ogni velleità di riconquistare quota $1,40, almeno fino a mercoledi. Tuttavia, il fatto che stia già trattando a 1,38 mostra come abbia già largamente scontato un premio sulla fiducia che in settimana l’Europa possa produrre un risultato sostanziale: dal punto di vista dell’analisi tecnica, per invertire il movimento rialzista l’Euro dovrebbe ora rompere al ribasso 1,3520.
Manifesta debolezza del Dollaro Usa nel cambio contro lo Yen: il rialzo nei rendimenti dei titoli americani,infatti, non ha comunque consentito di oltrepassare quota 78, a questo punto una chiusura sotto 76 riaprirebbe la strada verso 74.50. Il Dollaro Australiano potrebbe superare 1.04 nei confronti del biglietto verde già questa settimana qualora vi fossero delle schiarite sul fronte europeo e Wall Street reagisse positivamente alle notizie provenienti dal Vecchio Continente; al contrario, l’ Aussie ritraccerebbe velocemente verso 1.0190.
Quello che succederà sui mercati globali questa settimana influenzerà in ogni caso le decisioni di politica monetaria della banca centrale australiana, che potrebbe tagliare il costo del denaro nella riunione del prossimo mese.

London – 24th October 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)

Greece remains the bone of contention for Europe’s leaders as they look to come to some form of agreement about the extent of haircuts for private creditors, after the Troika report indicated that bondholder losses would need to be in excess of the 21% agreed in July for Greece’s finances to return to a sustainable path. 

Bankers however are not in favour of haircuts in excess of 40% for fear it could well trigger a credit event, while IMF officials, along with other politicians believe that only haircuts in excess of 50% would be seen as credible, given the recent deterioration in the Greek economy. 

France is also uneasy with higher debt haircuts due to the vulnerability of its triple “A” credit rating, especially in light of ratings agency Standard and Poor’s warning on Friday, that its rating would be cut due to a worsening economic climate.  It has been reported that EU leaders do appear to be on course to agree some form of bank recapitalisation plan; though the figure of €100bn being touted does seems a little on the optimistic side, and where the money will come from is an open question, however the main bone of contention remains the future form of the EFSF with pledges of more detail set to be outlined by Wednesday.
In the meantime uncertainty looks set to remain the primary backdrop and given the differences between France and Germany on the matter of the EFSF it seems unlikely that anything credible is likely, other than more obfuscation. 

As if to reinforce the problems in Europe and the fears about France’s triple “A” rating, economic data released today is not expected to help in that regard.  Today’s release of October services and manufacturing French PMI data is expected to confirm that the French economy continues to slow, with manufacturing PMI expected to slip further into contraction territory to 48, from 48.2, while services PMI is expected to stall to around 50.4, from 51.5.

Even in Germany both manufacturing and services PMI are expected to stall either side of the 50 level, while Eurozone services and manufacturing PMI are expected to weaken further into contraction territory with services slipping to 48.5 and manufacturing to 48.1. Industrial new orders for August are also expected to be shown to have slid back from 8.4% in July to 5.8%.

EURUSD – the current move towards currently 1.3900 lacks the impetus to follow through with any conviction to the topside failing at the 55 day and 55 week MA resistance between 1.3920 and 1.3940. Beyond these two barriers targets 1.4000 which is the 200 week MA.
There is also support at last week’s lows at 1.3650 which is currently preventing a move back towards 1.3520. To reopen the downside the euro needs to get back below 1.3520.  The outlook remains for a longer term move towards 1.3050, which is the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.1880/1.4940 up move.

GBPUSD – the late break through the 1.5850 resistance on Friday saw the move towards the 1.5950 area which is the 50% retracement of the down move from 1.6620 to 1.5270.
The 1.5850 area should now act as some support and could well act as a launch pad towards 1.6105, which is 61.8% retracement of the same move.  Back below 1.5850 retargets the 1.5670/80 area as well as last weeks low at 1.5630. 

EURGBP – the single currency continues to struggle near the range highs at the 0.8790/00 area. Only below the 0.8650 area has the potential to see a retest of this month’s lows at 0.8530. A break below 0.8530 looks for a test of 0.8455, 61.8% retracement of the 0.8065/0.9085 up move.

USDJPY – continues to trade 76.00/78.00 with little indication of which direction the likely breakout will occur, despite another dip below 76.00 to 75.90 on Friday the second such failure this year. The recovery in US bond yields, while generating some uplift more hasn’t generated the momentum needed for a move beyond 78.00. Only a close below 76.00/30 targets 74.50.

AUD Largely Unmoved By PPI, Awaiting Wednesday’s CPI
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)

There was a fairly limited reaction to this morning’s PPI data from the Australian dollar. The PPI print came in lower than anticipated at 0.6% (verses 0.8% forecast).  The muted reaction to the number suggests that traders are sitting on the hands for the more important CPI print due on Wednesday as this will play a larger role in shaping the RBA’s stance in interest rates for the November announcement.

It will not just be the domestic inflation readings that direct RBA Monetary Policy settings though. What happens on the global stage in the coming week will also influence whether or not the RBA sees a need to reduce the cash rate to 4.5% in November. With so much still to potentially play out in Europe over the next seven days and our CPI print on Wednesday, at this point the RBA itself probably does not yet know if it will cut or hold rates on November 1st.

So the guessing game continues for traders on whether the AUD will hold onto its present yield advantage over the Greenback beyond Melbourne Cup day or not. A week is proving to be a long time in financial markets, and as such, the state of play now compared to how things stand next Tuesday could be an entirely different kettle of fish.

After the greater than 1 cent surge by the AUD on Friday, the currency has settled down somewhat today as the market lies in wait for further developments from the EU. The AUD spent most of the morning session trading in the 1.0330-1.0350 range (which is around a third of a cent lower than the heights reached on Friday).

The AUD is looking primed for a run beyond 1.04 sometime this week should the EU deliver the goods on a workable solution. If US stocks react favourably to events in Europe then that attitude to risk should see the AUD well supported. However if the EU comes up short and equities get punished, then the AUD faces a set-back to 1.0190.

The Euro is playing the waiting game at the moment, with any potential push towards 1.40 ‘on ice’ until we see what Merkel and Sarkozy have brought to the table come Wednesday. However the mere fact that it is trading at around 1.38 shows that a large expectation component is already priced in to the single currency on the belief that the EU will produce a plan that has substance.  Needless to say traders will remain on high alert for any murmurs out of EU officials in coming days.


Commento Forex 24102011

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