Forex Morning Comments: non escludiamo ulteriori interventi della BoJ
La cancellazione della riunione dei ministri delle Finanze all’Eurosummit di oggi non lascia ben sperare circa gli esiti dei lavori: le attese degli investitori vanno nella direzione di un potenziamento dell’effetto leva del fondo Efsf a 1000 miliardi di euro e di un haircut al valore nominale dei titoli posseduti dai bondholder tra il 50 e il 60%. Il salvataggio dei conti greci dipende dall’approvazione di queste due proposte se non si vuole arrivare al G20 di Cannes con gli stessi problemi.
Non rincuora nemmeno la situazione del governo italiano sull’orlo del collasso, qualora Berlusconi non riuscisse a portare in dote a Bruxelles le misure di austerity richieste: tuttavia una crisi politica al buio non farebbe che aumentare l’incertezza degli investitori, che già si vedono garantire rendimenti overpriced per il possesso dei titoli di Stato italiani e che si teme possano essere mantenuti anche nell’asta da 10 miliardi in programma oggi. In questa situazione l’Euro continua a trovare estremamente difficile muoversi dal range $1.3940 e 1.3990, la view di lungo periodo rimane ribassista verso 1,3050. Sul cambio DollaroYen, i minimi postbellici di ieri a 75.75 mantengono la visione ribassista sul biglietto verde anche se la cautela è d’obbligo in attesa della prossima riunione sui tassi di giovedi. Non si escludono ulteriori misure della BoJ per rallentare la risalita dello yen. Dollaro Aus sotto 1.04 a seguito dei dati sull’inflazione, che aprono la strada ad un prossimo taglio dei tassi da parte della RBA: pur tuttavia, un rimbalzo deciso dei mercati azionari sulla scorta di dati positivi in Europa potrebbe riportare l’Aussie sopra 1.04.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 26th October 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
EU summit uncertainty remains the primary concern as we head into today’s crunch meeting. Yesterday’s sudden cancellation of the finance ministers meeting doesn’t generate confidence that EU leaders have a coherent plan to deal with the debt crisis, and the pathetic reasons for the cancellation, saying there wasn’t really a definite meeting scheduled in the first place, only serve to reinforce this perception.
Agreement is expected on measures to leverage the EFSF to €1trn, subject to a successful vote this afternoon in the German Bundestag. This could prove politically divisive though leaving Angela Merkel weakened if she has to rely on opposition votes to get the measure through.
The main concern remains on the extent of the new public sector involvement (PSI) for voluntary Greek haircuts with numbers between 40% and 60% being bandied about.
This could remain a sticking point with banks reluctant to take more than a 40% hit while the IMF, and EU leaders insistent on a much bigger haircut. This impasse could well delay the second Greek bailout, and we may well find that some parts of any agreement could get kicked down to G20 at Cannes next week.
Added to all this there is a real concern that Italy’s government could be on the verge of collapse after PM Berlusconi, under pressure to finally deliver on spending reforms from fellow EU leaders, struggles to secure support from within his own government for such measures. If Berlusconi is unable to get the reforms needed and his government fails then we could well see a further massive extra layer of uncertainty added to the equation.
Later this morning Italy is set to publish its latest business confidence figures for October and if they are anything like yesterday’s consumer confidence figures then we can expect another poor number. Expectations are confidence to slip to 94 from 94.5. Italy is also expected to try and sell 182 day T-bills and 2013 bonds to the tune of around €10bn, and given the recent rise in yields, could well end up paying much more to get them away.
In the UK the latest CBI industrial orders data for October is expected to show only a marginal improvement from -9 to -7, reinforcing concerns about UK industry and serving, in the MPC’s eyes to justify the controversial decision to restart the asset purchase scheme earlier this month.
Later in the US investors will be hoping for some good news after yesterday’s abysmal consumer confidence number hit its lowest level since March 2009 at 39.8. They could well be disappointed however as durable goods orders for September are expected to slip from -0.1% to -0.9%, while new home sales are expected to bump along the bottom recovering 1.7% after August’s 2.3% decline.
EURUSD – the euro continues to fail above the twin MA resistance of the 55 and 200 week MA’s between 1.3940 and 1.3990. These barriers remain a pretty tough nut to crack.
The euro needs to break back below 1.3820 to retarget last week’s lows at 1.3650, which is the main obstacle to a test towards 1.3520. The outlook remains for a longer term move towards 1.3050, which is the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.1880/1.4940 up move.
GBPUSD – continues to remain fairly well supported pushing back above 1.6000 yesterday. The pound has potential to head towards 1.6105 which is 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 1.6620 to 1.5270. To reopen the downside the pound needs to break back below last week’s 1.5850 resistance which was the 50% retracement of the same move. Back below 1.5850 retargets the 1.5670/80 area as well as last weeks low at 1.5630.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to struggle near the range highs at the 0.8790/00 area and the recent range remains intact with the bias remaining lower. Interim resistance can be found around the 0.8730 area. Only below the 0.8650 area has the potential to see a retest of this month’s lows at 0.8530. A break below 0.8530 looks for a test of 0.8455, 61.8% retracement of the 0.8065/0.9085 up move.
USDJPY – yesterdays new post war low at 75.75 shifts the focus back to the downside here, but caution remains the watchword especially with the latest rate decision due on Thursday. Further measures to weaken the yen cannot be ruled out. To stabilise in the short term the US dollar needs to get back above 76.40 to retarget 77.00 The recovery in US bond yields, while generating some uplift more hasn’t generated the momentum needed for a move beyond 77.00 let alone 78.00. Only a close below 76.00/30 targets 74.50.
CPI DATE SENDS AUD SUB 1.04
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)
Today’s CPI figures came in on the low side of expectations which has opened the door for an RBA rate cut next week. The trimmed mean data showed an easing of inflation pressures which now gives the RBA room to move to the downside on Monetary Policy settings, now that they don’t need to be battling inflation like in days gone by. The AUD slipped half a cent to well below 1.04 on the CPI data, with traders pricing in a greater likelihood of the official interest rate setting falling to 4.5% on Melbourne Cup Day.
The AUD was already under some pressure prior to the data due to a new bout of market nerves in the lead up to further announcements from the EU. This market is not renowned for its patience, so the delay of the European finance ministers meeting was far from warmly received by traders. The resulting sell-off in US equities reflects how delicately balanced the EU debt crisis situation is, given that the EU leaders meeting is going ahead as planned.
For the AUD, a bounce to 1.04 and beyond is still possible this week depending upon what Merkel, Sarkozy and co. can conjure up in the coming days. Any equity strength in the latter part of the week will see the AUD supported despite the odds of a rate cut next Tuesday now heightened.