Forex Morning Comments: il rafforzamento dell’euro potrebbe penalizzare le economie più deboli dell’Eurozona

Scritto il alle 10:17 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Analista), Tim Waterer (Senior FX Dealer) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader) di CMC Markets.

Se qualcuno avesse ancora dei dubbi sulla differenza che possono fare 24 ore, consideri che ieri i mercati erano in rialzo del 20% rispetto ai livelli di agosto, a seguito di un ritorno veemente sugli asset che incorporano maggior rischio. Interpretando i numeri di ieri, sembra che l’Europa non sia più destinata a scomparire dalla mappa economica e che sia stato scongiurato anche il rischio di una recessione double dip negli Stati Uniti. La questione cruciale ora è capire quanto la situazione attuale possa essere sostenuta oltre il breve termine considerando che aumenteranno le posizioni di “short covering” e quelle più decise in acquisto e che probabilmente i gestori, la maggiorparte dei quali al momento è ancora sottopesata sul settore azionario, inizierà a ricomprare fornendo un apporto decisivo al rialzo delle Borse, privilegiando gli asset che sono stati maggiormente penalizzati in questi mesi, a cominciare dai finanziari.
Per capire se e quanto è mutato il sentiment degli investitori sarà tuttavia necessario considerare l’esito dell’asta di oggi di titoli italiani da otto miliardi e mezzo di euro, visto che ieri i rendimenti del decennale viaggiavano comunque su un insostenibile 5,8%. Sul fronte valutario, invece, il Dollaro vede polverizzate le proprie posizioni nei confronti delle principali valute con l’Euro che ieri ha fatto piazza pulita di una serie di livelli di resistenza e potrebbe presto toccare $1,4350 prima di tornare a ritracciare: il rischio di una moneta unica in rafforzamento potrebbe piegare ulteriormente le economie più deboli dell’Eurozona e rimane un fattore di discussione all’interno della Bce, che si riunisca la prossima settimana sotto la guida di Mario Draghi, la cui politica monetaria ci auguriamo sia improntata ad una maggiore flessibilità per scongiurare che gli effetti sortiti dall’accordo di questa settimana vengano vanificati (ad esempio con la perdita della tripla A da parte della Francia).
Sul cambio DollaroYen, l’ennesimo minimo toccato dal biglietto verde a 75.65 mantiene intatta la tendenza ribassista e aumenta le probabilità di un intervento da parte della BoE. Impostato per un rally, il Dollaro Australiano potrebbe raggiungere presto 1.10 qualora assistessimo a progressi robusti sul fronte dei mercati azionari, contrariamente, tornerebbe a 1.05.

London – 28th October 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)

What a difference 24 hours can make, yet here we are 20% above our August lows as risk appetite returned to equity markets with a vengeance, prompting the question what was all the fuss about the past few months. So much for the idea that October is historically a bad month for stocks.

The key question now is whether yesterday’s moves can be sustained and in the short term they could well be, given the damage to short positions caused by yesterday’s move.
In the medium term however the jury remains out, with details of how the various planks of the deal link together, with EFSF chief Regling due to meet the Chinese and other Far East investors today with begging bowl in hand.

The US dollar was pulverised yesterday across the board, down against everything, however it remains above a key trend line support at 73.95 from its May lows against a basket of currencies.

Despite yesterday’s relief rally the rise of the euro presents Europe with a problem they cannot ignore, and that is the fact that for growth to return, Europe needs a weaker currency, not a stronger one so this move higher makes life much more difficult for the southern economies.

This could be where the ECB comes in next week, at Mario Draghi’s first monthly meeting, however yesterday’s higher than expected German CPI numbers make a possible rate cut some what more problematic for him at his first meeting as President.

Even so the ECB will have to be a lot more flexible on monetary policy in the coming months starting next week, otherwise the steps agreed this week will be for nought, especially if France as is feared loses its triple “A” rating in the coming months as growth continues to fizzle out, and the government has to inject money into its banks.

As it is this agreement will rely on continued delivery of fiscal goals which individual European countries have been historically bad at and it is less than certain that Greece or Italy for that matter will be able to grow at the required rate, while at the same time implementing spending cuts and further austerity.  The first test of the effect of this week’s agreement on bond yields will be this morning when Italy goes to the bond markets for €8.5bn worth of 2014, 2017, 2019 and 2022 paper.

The Italian 10 year bond yield declined yesterday but only to around 5.8%, still unsustainable.
Yesterday’s strong rebound in US GDP growth in Q3, with personal consumption showing strongly should silence those calling for further QE in the coming weeks, though the likelihood of it coming this year was never that high in any case, given the political backdrop in Europe. Today’s release of PCE figures for September which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, would have made further loosening problematic in any case, with core prices expected to rise 1.7% year on year from 1.6% in August.  Personal income and personal spending is also expected to have bounced back strongly in September, as a result of back to school expenditure. 

EURUSD – yesterday’s incredible move in the single currency blew away a number of key long term resistance levels in one fell swoop. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.4550/1.3150 down move at 1.4014, as well as the 200 day and 200 week moving averages in one large hit requires a reassessment of the bearish scenario held for the past couple of months. It now looks as if we could well get a test towards 1.4350 which is trend line resistance from the highs at 1.4940, before we get a sustained pullback. For the change of momentum to be sustained we would need to see the euro hold above the 1.4000 level where we had the breakout yesterday. 

GBPUSD – the pound fulfilled its potential to hit 1.6105 the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the down move from 1.6620 to 1.5270 and rebounded off its 200 day MA at 1.6140 before retreating. Lagging behind the euro the downside potential in cable remains intact while below 1.6140. Above 1.6140 targets a move towards 1.6300. Any pullbacks need to hold above 1.6020 to prevent a deeper correction back towards the 1.5850 which had acted as quite a key resistance level during the middle of last week Back below 1.5850 retargets the 1.5670/80 area as well as last weeks low at 1.5630. 

EURGBP – yesterday’s euro surge saw the single currency push beyond the 0.8790/00 area but still within the broader range seen since mid July where there is a solid range of highs at 0.8880/90. While below these highs the broader range remains intact. Below 0.8790 retargets a move towards 0.8730. Only below the 0.8650 area has the potential to see a retest of this month’s lows at 0.8530

USDJPY – another day and another post WW2 low at 75.65 keeps the focus on the downside here, but caution continues to remain the watchword, especially with the Japanese authorities continuing to make rumbling noises on the strength of the yen. Further measures to weaken the yen cannot be ruled out. To stabilise in the short term the US dollar needs to get back above 76.40 to retarget 77.00


(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)

Contrary to much of the price activity in global financial markets over the past three months, it now appears Europe will in fact stay on the map and that there will not be a Double Dip recession in the US. As a result of the EU debt deal, and to a lesser extent the encouraging US GDP figure, risk assets marched onwards and upwards on the view that more prosperous days lie ahead for the global economy.

Whilst the EU deal does contain a lot of ‘to be advised’ in the details, the outline of the plan is still a monumental leap forward in comparison to every other step taken in the last 18 months to address an issue which has hovered like a black ominous cloud over financial markets.
The USD has been shunned by investors now that the economic landscape appears to be several shades brighter.

In contrast, the reversal of fortunes by the Euro thanks to the deal brokered has it trading well above the 1.40 mark, even with a likely ECB rate cut in coming months. The Australian dollar revelled in the ‘risk-on’ atmosphere in the aftermath of the EU deal, with the currency racing past 1.07. Interestingly it was only a couple of days back after the benign CPI data that the AUD was heading down in the direction of 1.350 on expectations that the RBA will cut rate next Tuesday.

In light of the EU developments however, an RBA rate reduction is not a done-deal. Particularly given that much of the rate cut expectations by the market was on the premise of a deteriorating European situation. So with conditions improving abroad, I suspect that the RBA would not like to cut rates in November only to then backflip with a hike in early 2012.

The recent breakthrough in Europe and the exuberant financial market reaction may provide cause for the RBA to hold the status quo on Monetary Policy settings for at least a while longer.

After posting a three and a half cent appreciation since midweek, the AUD may look to take a well-earned breather today in the 1.0650-1.0740 range. Looking further ahead, it is not out of the question for the AUD to make a return to the lofty heights of 1.10 if global equities make a strong run on the approach to calender-year end. Although if the market suffers a hangover in coming weeks from this recent buying bonanza, the AUD may settle for a 1.05 level short term. 

(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)

The markets were in party mode last night as it seems we have finally had a breakthrough of sorts in the European financial crisis.

Holders of Greek sovereign debt have agreed to meet officials in the middle on a voluntary haircut of 50%. The solution provides a way to reduce Greece’s debt obligations without triggering credit default swap positions which could have proved problematic to the beaten up European banking system.

Talk has also focused on leveraging the EFSF to E1 trn; the detail of this remains vague however China’s investment involvement would be welcome. Plans for Greece to receive E100 bn, provided it meets its debt to GDP target of 120% by 2020, finally seems to be reaching agreement. And European banks look to receive E106 bn to ensure they reach a tier one capital ratio of 9% post the loss on Greek debt. 

This has all spelled a green light for the equity markets. We have and will see further short covering and buying in equities as the risk premium diminishes.  Fund managers all underweight equities should begin to join in and I feel we are really about to see a substantial pop to the upside.

Financial shares today should get a huge boost if the overnight US and European banks shares are any guide. British and German banks all put on around 15% and French banks soared 20% or more.

All risk currencies have also be the recipient of the euphoric trading conditions, the Euro putting on 2.1% and the Aussie dollar smashing through 1.07 shows you the strength of last night’s moves. Copper and all base metals, as well as silver’s moves higher, will manifest into strong buying in today’s commodity markets.


Commento Forex 28102011

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