Forex Morning Comment: il ritorno della propensione al rischio potrebbe spingere le risk currencies

Scritto il alle 11:33 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Brenda Kelly (Analista) e Tim Waterer (Senior FX Dealer) di CMC Markets.

La settimana si apre con un ritorno alla propensione al rischio di cui potrebbero beneficiare anche le cosiddette “risk currency” meglio posizionate per seguire l’onda di un’eventuale rimbalzo come Euro e Dollaro Australiano, alla ricerca di un riscatto dai ribassi segnati le scorse settimane sulle crescenti incertezze riguardanti le situazioni politiche in Grecia e Italia. Con l’avvento di nuovi governi nei due Paesi, gli investitori si preparano a cogliere la novità con ordini in acquisto, anche se i rendimenti dei titoli di Stato italiani saranno attentamente monitorati e, con ogni probabilità, ogni ritracciamento dello spread funzionerà come detonatore per ulteriori rimbalzi.
Sul fronte Eurodollaro, la moneta unica è orientata verso ulteriori guadagni: oltre $1,3825 si aprirebbe la porta per 1,3850 prima e 1.40 poi. Qualora la settimana dovesse impostarsi in questo modo, potremmo assistere al ritorno del Dollaro Australiano verso 1.04, anche se la cautela è d’obbligo, soprattutto relativamente ai tempi di evoluzione della nuova compagine governativa italiana e alle sue effettive capacità di implementazione delle riforme di austerity richieste dagli investitori. Questa mattina la pubblicazione del Pil giapponese (crescita dell’1,5% trimestrale e del 6% su base annua) ha lasciato impressionati gli investitori circa la capacità di ripresa del Paese nel post-terremoto, ma rappresenta anche una spada di Damocle per le esportazioni, considerando che i dati macro hanno già supportato un rafforzamento dello Yen nei confronti del Dollaro Usa.


London – 14th November 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Brenda Kelly)

Overnight has seen a broad-based rise in Asian stocks on the back of a rebound in Japans GDP. The Asian economy posted its first gain of an annualised 6% since the economy was struck by the March 11 earthquake.  On a quarterly comparison, that amounts to a 1.5% gain. Despite this, Japan’s economy minister Furukawa felt compelled to draw attention to potential downside risks such as the strong Japanese yen as well as the deterioration in foreign economies.

With the heightened potential for increased inflows into the yen on the back of the data, it’s more than a little ironic that this could be a double edged sword for the economy in terms of the negative effect on its export sector.

European bourses are expected to take their lead from the Asian markets with a higher opening expected.

It’s likely that media headlines and rumours emanating from the Euro zone are likely to continue to play their part in shifting the markets over the foreseeable future –however concerns surrounding Greece and more notably Italy appear to be dampened for the moment following the instigation of new technocrat governments. 

The main priority for Greece as it stands is to ensure that the sixth loan is paid over in line with bailout conditions to ensure Greece has sufficient funding in its coffers. Mario Monti, who is set to head up the emergency Italian government following Berlusconi’s departure, has a humongous task ahead of him in both winning and maintaining the support and confidence of some of the larger parties.

Severely critical of past Italian government failures, he is reputed to be in support of a more closely integrated Eurozone which may serve to placate investors.

The week ahead is quite heavy on macro data such as GDP for the core Euro countries and CPI for the entire Eurozone. Investors will also be watching for the ZEW Economic sentiment tomorrow.

Today brings with it the all- European Industrial production figures which when taken in context against Germany’s nose dive of 2.7%, It’s unlikely this will surprise to the upside.
PPI data in Switzerland is due today also. With the usual issues surrounding the strength of the franc it is expected that like the past 5 months this figure will drop back once again.

The controversy surrounding China’s weak currency and exceptionally large trade surplus persists again being blamed for the lack of growth and jobs in the United States at Asian Pacific summit last weekend. Whether this is mere political posturing or a warning in respect of the recent suggestions that a tariff would be placed on all Asian goods remains to be seen.

EURUSD – the euro has gained overnight on the back of lessened concerns in the Eurozone. The 50 day MA around the 1.3700 level is serving to hold the single currency, however the 1.38 level may prove elusive and 21 day MA at 1.3825 would need to be breached in order to target the well-established resistance level of 1.3850. A move beyond 1.3850 could well see a revisit of the 1.4000 level while a dip and close below the 50 day MA could be construed as bearish for the Euro and open up the possibility for a drop back to 1.3520.

– Sterling has gained considerably against the dollar overnight but is currently off its highs. Still not finding the legs to push through the 200 day MA (1.6120) to be a struggle bouncing as it will between that and its 100 day MA (1.600) The recent rally cap of 1.6060/70 has been breached however… which may suggest a retest of 1.6140. A close below the 100 day MA opens possibility for downside with support being found at 1.5850.

EURGBP – the pair’s range remains in place for the most part with support at 0.8530 and resistance at 0.8650 although the single currency managed to pare some losses following the political maneuverings over the weekend in the peripheries.  Further gains for the euro should now be capped 0.8720. Should the euro weaken below the key support of 0.8530 -February’s lows of 0.8450 could once again be witnessed on the way down to this year’s lows of 0.8305.

USDJPY –The support around the 77.70 which coincides with the 100 day MA has been breached considerably following the release of Japan GDP data. Further downside should be limited with support at 76.30 but with inflows even more likely to intensify now this may be a double edged sword for the yen. Only a move and close above this key level 77.70 could signal further US dollar gains. 

Gold – the $1800 level is still a barrier for the shiny metal. With $1755 acting as support (the 38.2% level from the September highs) it may consolidate in this range for a while. Only a move above $1800 could see a retarget of the all-time highs and even that won’t necessarily be all that straightforward. A convincing move below $1755 could see the $1700 level retested assuming that the 21 day MA is breached in the interim, The 144 Day MA is broad-based support

(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)

It has been a vibrant start to the week for risk assets, with the appointment of a new Italian PM appearing to have a calming influence on financial markets. The Euro and the Aussie dollar were both on the front foot as markets opened on Monday, as the perceived risk currencies try to shake off the lulls reached last week amid the mire of uncertainty pertaining to the Italian and Greek political sphere.

With the recent changes of leadership in both Greece and Italy this could create the feeling of a new beginning in many ways if the austerity measures are fully embraced.  So it is this ‘out with the old, in with the new’ approach in relation to European leadership which has risk assets on the ascent to start the week.  Italian bond yields will continue to be under the microscope this week, and any signs of them receding would bode well for the higher yielding currencies and risk assets in general.

Tuesday’s RBA minutes will be closely watched by traders of the AUD with a view to potential further rate cuts, whilst in the US we have The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday which will be a key event in currency markets.

Looking at the Australian dollar, it is now trading 3c higher than its low point from last week thanks primarily to the considerable bounce in US equities on Friday. Today it pushed to 1.0350 before easing back to the low 1.03’s as the ASX200 settled to be around 0.8% higher by mid morning having been up 1.2% in the early going. The AUD will look to trade 30 pips either side of 1.03 heading into the European market open this afternoon.

If we do see Italian Bond yields fall nearer to acceptable levels and we have a ‘risk on’ week for US equities the AUD should be looking at a return to 1.04 before long. But much will depend on how long the current ‘feel good’ story on the new Italian leadership lasts for.
However, markets are likely to be cautious in their enthusiasm for the new governments at this stage.

Both have a fragile hold on political power and their capacity to implement the kinds of reform needed to restore market confidence is yet to be tested. Investors are likely to wait for clear signs of progress in implementing reform before they make major adjustments to the risk premium currently built into share prices and European bond yields.


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