Forex Morning Comments: i mercati chiedono un intervento delle banche centrali

Scritto il alle 11:16 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Brenda Kelly (Analista) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader) di CMC Markets

Con il rialzo dei rendimenti anche nelle nazioni “core” dell’Eurozona, si fanno più pressanti le richieste di un intervento da parte delle banche centrali, tanto che -rifiutandosi la Bce di diventare prestatore di ultima istanza –  vi sono indiscrezioni circa un intervento congiunto dell’Eurotower e della Fed. In Australia acquisti su titoli minerari e banche nonostante il comunicato di Fitch di ieri sera rimarcasse la vulnerabilità del sistema bancario Usa (specialmente relativamente ai derivati) alla crisi dei debiti europea. Nonostante i dati macro migliori delle attese al di là dell’Oceano, i mercati continuano a soffrire di una crisi di fiducia relativamente alla sostenibilità dei rendimenti sui titoli di Stato europei, i cui spread iniziano a prendere il volo ogni volta in cui viene a mancare il sostegno della Bce.
Aumentano le voci di chi ritiene che solo la Banca centrale abbia i requisiti per poter affrontare la crisi e che debba pertanto mettere mano ad un Quantitative Easing al più presto per stimolare la crescita, svalutare l’Euro e finanziare i governi che non sono più in grado di trovare risorse sul mercato dei capitali, per quanto questa possa essere considerata una misura di breve termine.
Sul fronte valutario, l’Eurodollaro sotto $1,35 apre la strada a 1,34 prima e 1,30 poi anche se in un lasso di tempo più lungo rispetto alla velocità di discesa registrata finora e senza escludere un periodo di consolidamento degli attuali livelli. Attenzione alla Sterlina: i dati delle vendite al dettaglio in Gran Bretagna potrebbero infatti mettere ulteriore pressione ribassista.. Cambio DollaroYen inchiodato sotto 77 con la possibilità di ulteriori discese. Oro ancora fermo in un canale ribassista: solo la rottura al rialzo di $1780 riaprirà la strada verso 1800.

London – 17th November 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Brenda Kelly)

Bond market turmoil has now spread to the core. Yields on French, Dutch and Austrian bonds are climbing while the Italian 10 year bond is back over 7%.  Spain is to issue €4 billion in an auction today so given the lack of data due in the Euro zone today investor focus will be trained on the yield outcome which is expected to be exorbitant given that the nation’s 10 year yield reached its highest level yesterday.

The worm has now turned for France, currently battling with Germany with regard to an extension of the ECB’s role, as Triple A rated country as yesterday saw the spread on its 10 year bonds rose to a euro era high versus the benchmark bunds.  France will also auction notes today maturing from 2013 to 2016 so it will be interesting to see what the bid to offer and most of all the yield demand will be. 

French Finance Minister has suggested that the EFSF should have a banking licence which will allow it to borrow from the ECB thus giving much needed additional firepower to the fund. Angela Merkel is needless to say resisting such a measure citing EU rules as a reason, although it must be said, Germany’s historical fear of hyperinflation is likely playing a part in it.
Irish Prime Minister, Enda Kenny also added his two cents and was strongly vocal about the need for an extension in the EFSF fund during a meeting in Berlin with Ms.  Merkel.

The credit outlook for US banks has now been called into question by Fitch Ratings agency citing the potential for a deepening of the debt crisis in Europe and the resignation of Anthony Borges head of the IMF’s European department may be a strategic move following his odd backtracking regarding his suggestion for the IMF to directly intervene last month.

His replacement, Reza Moghadam will have to prepared for a with a baptism of fire in his new role as the contagion effect rages through Europe.

There has been some speculation that the US Federal Reserve is planning to coordinate with the ECB which for many indicated the possibility of intervention or some type of joint quantitative easing.

The fact remains that the ECB is still refusing to step up to the role as the ‘lender of last resort’ and ultimately begs the question as what to exactly has to happen to the global economy before the proper action is taken.

Its also difficult to see how or indeed why the Fed would assist financially if the ECB already has the means to help solve the situation but are unwilling to utilise it.  Data due for release today will be mostly UK and US focussed, with Retail sales for the UK due out at 9.30. this indicator surprised to the upside last month rising 0.6%.

A drop to 0.3% is likely this month particularly in light of the fairly damp outlook for UK economic growth from the BOE yesterday. Failure to meet expectations could severely pressure the pound.

Stateside, as the US continues to unwind the property bubble, US Permits which disappointed last time out are expected to show a small rise of 600,000 units.  Us unemployment claims came in better than expected last week and while there could be a slight increase now towards 397,000, the US would be quite content to keep it under the 400k mark going forward.

As concerns over a second recession dissipate in the US, the US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to reflect this when juxtaposed against last month’s positive number. A rise to 9.3 points or so is now expected.

EURUSD – with the euro coming under pressure hitting a 5 month low versus the dollar. As long as it remains under 1.35 the risk remains for a move back towards the 1.3410 area which was the 50% retracement level of the entire up move from 1.1880/1.4940. The longer term objective remains 1.3050 which is the 61.8% retracement level of the same move, however we could well see a pause now given the sharpness of the recent declines. Trade will be very news driven today. Only a close back above 1.3500 would re-target a pullback towards 1.3550 and even 1.3700, the recent range highs.

EURGBP – the single currency is trading below recent range support of 0.8575/80 which may well be tested. 0.8540 could act as support in the meantime while a break below that retargets the 0.8500 level. Recent action however has indicated that the longevity for trading below this is brief. Any move to the upside could be capped by the 21 day MA at 0.8660. the probability for consolidation is quite likely for now. 

GBPUSD – Sterling has taken a bit of a pounding recently but the 1.5710 seems to be supportive for now. sharp move to 1.5785, . A move above 1.5785 targets 1.5950.  The pound now needs to hold above 1.5680 to prevent a move down towards the 1.5500/20 support area and October lows.

USDJPY – the fear of BOJ intervention has had the desired effect as the pair sits around and doesn’t do an awful lot. Staying below the 77.00 mark the risk for downside is still low with 76.80 acting a support.

Gold– Gold has seen some nice action and the $1750/55 level remains intact as support. With the hourly chart in a downward channel only a break above $1780 will see the well established $1800 mark eyed. A break below could see $1735 tested and $1700 below that.

(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)

Our market has staggered higher today in low volumes despite large falls across the US markets. Gains have been made across the miners and banks despite Fitch’s statement last night that US banks are vulnerable to the European debt crisis.

Despite US economic numbers recently coming in at or above expectations, the markets have a crisis of confidence which is being led by European bond yields.  It seems whenever the ECB turns its back on the yields of Spain or Italy we see their yields spike. It’s now however getting to the point that the effectiveness of ECB supporting yields is not working in its current form, eventually we will need to see large scale ECB quantitative easing to fend off the bond junkies. 

Investors seem to be taking bets that the ECB is about to take on a huge quantitative easing blitz to propel growth, devalue the Euro and finance the governments that cannot feasibly borrow from the markets. Whilst the measure may seem short term-ist it be could the only way for Europe to get the kick start needed to buy more time to work out its problems.  Also of concern is the recent blow out in European spreads over the German yields and further highlights the need for further action.

Whilst Fitch’s comments last night seem to have stated the obvious: that US banks have exposures spread across Europe. The statement also highlights the fact that the derivatives exposures attached to Euro debt holdings are not fully known and therefore the extent of counterparty risk are hard to quantify in the event of default. Also of concern is the effectiveness of using CDS to hedge sovereign debt exposure when a “technical default” seems to be harder to achieve in the current voluntary debt forgiveness environment.


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