Forex Morning Comments: gli interventi delle banche centrali spingono al rialzo il Dollaro Usa

Scritto il alle 11:21 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments  a cura di Michael Hewson (Analista) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader) di CMC Markets

Mentre si estendono i timori di un possibile contagio alla Francia, si avvicina lo spettro del credit crunch con i depositi presso le banche centrali ormai  raddoppiati. Per nulla rassicurante nemmeno la situazione d’Oltreoceano dove – come largamente previsto – il supercomitato bipartisan non è riuscito a centrare l’accordo sui tagli e ora il debito Usa rischia nuovi declassamenti. In Europa oggi attesa per l’asta di titoli spagnoli e , nel Regno Unito, per lo stato delle finanze del mese di ottobre con il sospetto che il Cancelliere abbia mancato il proprio obiettivo per il 2011 rendendo più irta la strada verso la crescita economica prevista, tanto che la Sterlina nelle ultime ventiquattrore ha messo a segno il ribasso più consistente dell’ultimo mese. Mentre il Dollaro Usa continua  a fungere da moneta rifugio a causa degli interventismi delle banche centrali svizzera e giapponese, l’Eurodollaro rimane intrappolato su $1,34: solo un’ eventuale risalita sopra 1,3650 potrebbe spuntare il nuovo obiettivo a 1,38.
Dopo un iniziale sell-off sui mercati asiatici, la giornata potrebbe essere impostata per un rimbalzo  e, per quanto nessuno abbia al momento alcuna certezza circa la direzionalità dei mercati, gli occhi sono puntati verso la seconda stima del Pil Usa del terzo trimestre , le minute della Fed e il risultato delle aste europee.

London – 22th November 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)

Continued concerns about the situation in Europe continue to spook investors with the ECB acting again to buoy sovereign bonds in attempting to keep a lid on bond yields.  Even talk about new proposals about Eurobonds, due to be announced tomorrow by the EU, failed to turn the tide as new data showed that foreign bank deposits at the Federal Reserve were shown to have doubled, as investors sought safe havens from Europe’s turmoil.

Ratings agency Moody’s warning about France’s credit rating seems to have acted as a catalyst for even more concern. To compound investor fears the German Bundesbank downgraded its growth forecasts for 2012 for the German economy from 1.8% to between 0.5%-1% and throwing into even more doubt even Germany’s ability to backstop the crisis.

In a key test of yields this morning after this weeks Spanish election result Spain is set to issue three and six month bills, while new Italian PM Mario Monti is set to meet EU President Van ROmpuy and new Greek PM Lucas Papademos is set to meet Eurogroup chief Jean- Claude Juncker as the debate continues about the next Greek aid tranche, and whether the two parties can overcome the obstacle of New Democracy leader Samaras refusal to sign the austerity proposal. 

The pound also got hit in the selling firestorm, posting its biggest one day fall against a basket of currencies in over a month yesterday, after UK PM Cameron stated that the UK is way behind where it needs to be on growth, prompting renewed speculation about further QE, ahead of today’s latest UK public finances data for Oct, which is expected to improve to £3.8bn from the £11.4bn in September.

There has been considerable speculation that the Chancellor looks set to miss his fiscal targets for this year and today’s data could reinforce this perception ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of England minutes and next weeks Autumn Statement, where he could well find himself under increasing pressure to somehow pull a rabbit out of the hat to try and avert a contraction in growth.

As expected the so-called US super committee failed to agree on any measures to cut spending with Democrats and Republicans unable to come to any agreement on spending cuts and tax hikes.

This failure to agree has prompted speculation that Fitch or Moody’s could well follow S&P’s lead and cut the US’s triple “A” rating. It also means that automatic spending cuts of $1.2tn over 10 years should kick in starting in 2013, split evenly between military and domestic programs.

Attempts are now being made in some quarters to unpick some of these particular cuts, further undermining the integrity of politicians on Capitol Hill and reinforce the vacuum at the top of US politics.

It could well mean more partisan stalemate for another 12 months, the last thing the US economy needs as recent economic data starts to show some improvement, and Europe threatens to implode.

The latest figures for US Q3 GDP is expected to reinforce this improving economic environment with the figure of 2.5% expected to remain unchanged from the previous figure, a few weeks ago.

Today’s release of the latest FOMC minutes are expected to highlight the threeway split on the committee between the more dovish Chicago Fed Dudley who advocated further stimulus at the last meeting, and the sceptics of Fisher, Plosser and Kocherlakota, who opposed “operation twist” and the rest of the committee. 

EURUSD – the single currency continues to find support between the 1.3400 level and last week’s lows and trend line support from the 1.3150 lows in October at 1.3430. Only a pullback above1.3650 would suggest a deeper move back towards 1.3800. As such the focus remains for an eventual retest of the 1.3410 area on the way back towards the October lows at 1.3150 and the eventual test of 1.3050, which is the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.1880/1.4940 up move.

GBPUSD – yesterday’s move below 1.5720 did indeed prompt a move towards 1.5610 which is 61.8% retracement of the 1.5270/1.6170 up move.  A move below 1.5610 has the potential to retarget the 1.5480 level last seen in early October, as well as the 1.5270 lows.
To stabilise in the medium term we need to see the pound get back above the 1.5720 area and push back on towards the 1.5870 level in order to retarget the 1.6000 level, and retarget down trend line resistance at 1.6060 from the 1.6620 highs in August. 

EURGBP – the risk for a rebound towards 0.8650 played out yesterday as was suspected as the single currency struggles to close below the 200 week MA.  While below 0.8650/70 the odds continue to favour a move back towards last weeks lows and a break below the 200 week MA, on the way to further sterling gains towards 0.8450. There is also trend line support at 0.8375 from the October 2008 lows at 0.7695.

USDJPY – the yen continues to strengthen despite further intervention fears by Japanese authorities. For the US dollar to rally here we need to see a push beyond the 77.50/70 area, which has in the past acted as a key support and resistance pivot.  The next key support area lies around the 76.20/30 area, a break below of which opens up the lows at 75.30.

Climbing Spreads On AAA Rated Nations Worrying Markets
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)

The markets have seen the worst of the carnage in today’s trade on the open. Its seem that many expected that the US super committee was inclined to disagree and we are hearing people say “who cares – they have until 2013 to work it out”. If that is the case, today’s rally from the open may be investors believing the markets were oversold.

I believe the initial sell-off is about a lack of confidence in the US and Europe which has been building in momentum. It seems that no-one is certain of anything at the moment, and I would not be surprised to see a continuation of low volume day’s dictating our direction until further clear guidance is given.

The problems is that, once again, Democrats and Republicans are unable to find common ground even when the ground is breaking underneath them.  It’s now widely expected that the proportion of automatic cuts may be a large percentage compared to cuts agreed on by the super committee. This has the market worried as the best outcome may not be delivered due to political stalemate.  Climbing spreads on AAA rated nations over German yields are also starting to worry our markets. Downgrade begets further downgrades in this environment as investors sell bonds once they lose their AAA status.

Mining stocks have come under the most pressure today following Chinese Vice-Premier Wang Qishan warning of further global economic pressure and that China must now focus on its self to ensure it’s long term strength. This message had base metals trading lower in overnight markets and had extended falls in today’s mining and energy sector.

Tonight sees the second estimate of the US’ third quarter GDP. It’s believed we may see a slight fall from 2.5% to 2.4%, FOMC meeting minutes and EU debt auctions will also test our markets.


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