Forex Morning Comments: nonostante il rimbalzo, l’obiettivo di fondo per l’€/$ resta ribassista

Scritto il alle 11:24 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (analista) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader) di CMC Markets.

La giornata si aprirà nuovamente con il tema dei debiti sovrani in primo piano dopo che questa notte Fitch ha messo sotto revisione la tripla A degli Stati Uniti e sulle indiscrezioni di una mossa simile da parte di S&P sul merito di credito dei titoli francesi. Occhi puntati all’andamento delle aste di titoli italiani da 8 miliardi di euro in programma questa mattina, mentre in giornata è attesa la decisione sull’erogazione della tranche da 8 miliardi per la Grecia.
Le stime dell’Ocse riguardo la recessione della Gran Bretagna (che dovrebbe continuare almeno fino a tutto il primo trimestre 2012) potrebbero mettere in grande difficoltà le manovre di bilancio elaborate dal cancelliere Osborne nel suo tentativo di stimolare la crescita economica UK.
Sul fronte valutario, la speranza che una decisione circa la soluzione della crisi in Europa potrebbe essere vicina – proprio a causa del deterioramento delle situazioni su vari contesti  che richiede una risposta immediata, nonostante la Germania non sembra intenzionata a rafforzare il ruolo della Bce prima di avere raggiunto l’agognata unione fiscale – ha portato ad un rimbalzo dell’Euro che potrebbe venire confermato qualora superasse la resistenza a $1,3420 anche se l’obiettivo di fondo rimane comunque ribassista (1,3150-1,3050). Ulteriore rally del Dollaro Usa nei confronti dello Yen potrebbe presto raggiungere area 79.

London – 29th November 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)

Sovereign debt credit risk remains at the forefront today after ratings agency Fitch put the US on notice of losing its triple “A” rating last night, by putting them on a negative outlook with a view to a downgrade by 2013, after last weeks faliure to agree budget cuts by the congressional super committee. On the plus side Fitch upgraded Australia to triple “A”.

A report from La Tribune last night suggested that Paris could also be within 10 days of being put on notice of a downgrade of its outlook, this one by S&P; suggesting that the future for European triple “A” sovereigns is not looking too rosy right now.  The focus remains on European bond markets this morning in the wake of Moody’s warning on the vulnerability of sovereign ratings.

Italy’s pain looks set to continue as they look to raise another €8bn in three separate auctions of 2014, 2020 and 2022 bonds, with yields stuck stubbornly above 7%; this could be another expensive auction. Belgium is also expected to auction some T-Bills.

A final decision is also expected on the next Greek aid tranche of €8bn at today’s Eurozone finance ministers meeting, assuming Greek politicians have agreed to all the preconditions of the troika. Discussions are also expected to continue with respect to leveraging the EFSF, while a French downgrade would pretty much kill it stone dead, even though its pretty much comatose now.

Focus is also likely to shift to the UK today as the Chancellor gets up to give his Autumn Statement and it is unlikely to be full of joy and hope, after the OECD growth downgrades yesterday.

The OECD suggested that the UK was already in recession and could well remain so into Q1, before recovering. Yesterday’s CBI retail sales data for November reinforced the weakness in the economy, coming in much worse than expected, and falling to the lowest levels since March 2009 at -19.

While the UK downgrades weren’t as severe of those of Europe, it is likely to be of little comfort given that the EU is the UK’s biggest export market.  These growth downgrades are likely to be followed by similar downgrades by the independent (OBR) Office for Budget Responsibility.

This is likely to give the Chancellor a potential £30-50bn headache over the next five years as the growth path and future income stream of the UK economy gets downgraded, in the wake of the problems in Europe. It will give the Chancellor very little room for manoeuvre today as he tries to stimulate some form of growth and investment in a moribund economy.
In the wake of Black Friday and Cyber Monday US consumer confidence for November is expected to improve from October’s 39.8, jumping to 44. 

EURUSD – yesterday’s rebound in the single currency fizzled out just short of the old support at 1.3410/20. To delay the risk of further losses we would need to see a break of 1.3420 to push back towards last weeks highs at 1.3570.  The objective remains for a retest of the lows in October at 1.3150 on the way to the 1.3050 level, which is the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.1880/1.4940 up move. A break here would then target this year’s low at 1.2870.  Keep an eye on US dollar index resistance at 79.85 and October highs as a key level.
If that holds euro downside could be limited in short term.

GBPUSD – yesterday’s break above the 1.5520 area saw the cable spill over towards 1.5600. If the pound holds above 1.5470 we could well see another test higher towards the 1.5620 level and trend line resistance from the 14th November highs at 1.6085. While below here though the risk remains for a retest towards the 1.5270 October lows.
The big chart point remains at 1.5190 which is 61.8% retracement of the entire up move from the 2010 lows at 1.4230 to the highs this year at 1.6745. A significant break here would then target 1.4880.

EURGBP – the single currency remains range bound between the broader resistance at last weeks highs and resistance at the 0.8650/70 area and 55 week MA.  As such while below these highs the odds continue to favour a move back towards last weeks lows and a break below the 200 week MA, on the way to further sterling gains towards 0.8450. There is also trend line support at 0.8380 from the October 2008 lows at 0.7695. A move above 0.8670 retargets a move towards 0.8730. 

USDJPY – yesterday saw further US dollar gains to 78.25 after finding a base around 77.45. This keeps alive the possibility of further US dollar gains towards trend line resistance at 79.00 from the 2007 highs at 124.15. Only below 77.20/30 area would undermine this scenario, and risk a move lower that would see the next key support area around the 76.20/30 area, a break below of which opens up the lows at 75.30.

(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Sales Trader Ben Taylor)

Despite a higher open, the Australian market has drifted from positive to negative to positive again on low volume and a lack of interest in equity exposure following the Federal Government’s mid year budget review.

Last night’s run higher was as much about plans for Europe as it was for Black Fridays, healthy crowds, healthy sales results. The Black Friday numbers beat 2010 sales numbers despite a huge amount of discounting to incite shoppers. Consumer stocks have reacted well today on the news and the results have seen Westfield as one of the best performer in the Aussie 200 today.

We are completely headline and rumour driven, and the last 48 hours has tossed up much talk and debate but firm details is what’s lacking. For our market to rally we need confirmation of action.

A push for a more centralised fiscal authority is one reason markets were running hot last night. Germany will not expand the role of the ECB until we have agreement over a closer fiscal union in the Eurozone. This idea means more austerity and therefore further riots. Politically the idea is not viable but desperate times call for desperate measures so it will be interesting to find how this idea develops.

An OECD report that lowered world economic growth and highlighted Eurozone risks is also playing havoc with traders’ minds today. The constant reinforcement that things will need to get worse before they get better is really sucking confidence away from this market.
We now have traders who are telling us that PE’s of 10 or below will become the new norm in the next 6 months as the debt contagion environment plagues expectations of forward earnings.


Commento Forex 29112011

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