Forex Morning Comment: l’Euro è avviato verso un consolidamento
Occhi puntati su Roma oggi dove il governo Monti è atteso al banco di prova del voto di fiducia sulla manovra correttiva dei conti pubblici che ha già causato scioperi e proteste in tutto il Paese; la situazione verrà monitorata da vicino anche da Mario Draghi della Bce, Mervyn King della Boe e Klaus Regling dell’Efsf.
Potremmo ssistere ad una certa volatilità, specie se in Germania la Merkel dovesse perdere l’appoggio del partito che la sostiene alla coalizione di governo nell’implementazione delle misure atte a sostenere il fondo Efsf: in questo caso, infatti, la Cancelliera dovrebbe chiedere espressamente il voto delle opposizioni, indebolendo oltremodo la sua posizione politica. A complicare ulteriormente il quadro è giunto questa notte il downgrade su alcune delle principali banche europee da parte di Fitch, mentre il presidente del FMI Christine Lagarde è tornata a tuonare contro i rischi del lassismo politico europeo. Sul fronte valutario, l’Euro si è avviato verso un consolidamento dopo la discesa degli ultimi giorni tra $1,2950 e 1,3050: solo un eventuale strappo oltre questa resistenza potrebbe invertirne la tendenza ribassista verso 1,2870 e 1,2590.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 16th December 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
A rather busy week could well end on a quiet note with a fairly sparse economic
docket; however there are a couple of items that might cause some volatility
today including a confidence vote in Italy, and scheduled speeches by Mario
Draghi and Mervyn King at a conference in Rome that will also be attended
by EFSF chief Klaus Regling .
Barely a week has passed since the fiscal compact agreed by Merkel and Sarkozy in Brussels and it already appears to be on the verge of unravelling. As expected some of the scrutiny demanded by some of the terms has been shown to be too politically difficult, with Hungary and the Czech Republic both distancing themselves from the tax harmonisation measures, along with Ireland.
There also appears to be some disquiet from Sweden about the proposals given their experiences with a financial transaction tax in the 1980’s.
In Germany, splits amongst Angela Merkel’s junior coalition partners the FDP could come to the fore, if they vote against the setting up of the ESM, the permanent bailout fund. Not only could it force the party from government but it would mean that Merkel would have to rely on opposition support to push the measures through and weaken her politically.
In a sign that the UK could be allowed back in from the cold in Europe, after last weeks veto EU officials announced that the UK would be allowed to play a passive role in the discussions over the proposed measures in the coming weeks. In Italy, in the face of strikes earlier this week and increasing opposition the government has called for a confidence vote today on the new austerity budget, in an attempt to convince markets that they have the will to deal with their problems in the face of rising bond yields.
In a separate development late last night, and on the back of increasing concerns about strains in the banking system Fitch downgraded a number of major banks, including BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and Barclays, along with three US banks. Standard and Poor’s also downgraded 10 Spanish banks.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde yesterday raised the stakes somewhat with dire warnings of a depression if rapid steps were not taken to deal with the European debt crisis with a plea for all countries to pull together to avert a global crisis. The only economic data of note today is out of the US with CPI data for November expected to remain at 3.5%, unchanged from the October figure.
EURUSD – yesterday proved to be a day for consolidation between the low so far this week at 1.2950, and the 1.3050/70 break out level. The January lows at 1.2870 remain the main barrier to a move towards the August 2010 lows at 1.2590. Having closed below 1.3050 the onus continues to favour further downside and only a move beyond 1.3150 would change that.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to hold above the longer term support from the 2010 lows at 1.4230 which comes in at 1.5405.A move below 1.5400 retargets the 1.5270 lows in October, and then 1.5190 61.8% retracement of the 1.4230/1.6745 up move. Pullbacks are currently finding resistance around the 1.5530/40 area, while the larger resistance levels remains at the 55 day MA at 1.5740 as well as this month’s high at 1.5780. Only a break above here targets 1.5825 and 1.5900.
EURGBP – the single currency appears to be struggling for direction around the long term trend line support at 0.8390 from the October 2008 lows at 0.7695. Yesterdays close was right on it which is not the conclusive break which would encourage a move either way. It does seem only a matter of time before the line breaks but we must be prepared for pullbacks. We could still see a squeeze back towards 0.8450 and even the 200 week MA at 0.8567 but the 2011 lows at 0.8285 remain the ultimate target.
USDJPY – the US dollar continues to hold above the 77.20/30 level and 55 day MA area and this keeps the likelihood of a rally towards trend line resistance at 78.80 from the 2007 highs at 124.15, on a break above the 78.30 level, intact. The 200 day MA at 79.15 is the key long term resistance. Only below the 55 day MA would undermine this scenario, and risk a move lower that would see the next key support area around the 76.20/30 area, a break below of which opens up the lows at 75.30.