Forex Morning Comments: per l’Eurodollaro atteso un movimento di consolidamento tra 1,295 e 1,305

Scritto il alle 11:25 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (analista), Tim Waterer (Senior FX Dealer) e Ric Spooner (Chief Market Strategist) di CMC Markets.

Chiunque abbia sperato in un avvio della settimana borsistica senza particolari ostacoli non poteva mettere in conto che il weekend ci avrebbe riservato la morte del leader nord-coreano Kim Jong II nè che Moody’s e Fitch si sarebbero mosse all’unisono per il downgrade sul Belgio e il credit watch negativo sulle maggiori economie dell’Eurozona sulla base del deterioramento delle condizioni di finanziamento  e osservata la mancanza di interventi sostanziali da parte della Bce.
Il giudizio delle agenzie di rating è stato talmente negativo tanto da concludere che una soluzione definitiva alla crisi europea è qualcosa che va oltre le reali capacità espresse: a questo punto non desterebbe più alcuna sorpresa la perdita della tripla A da parte della Francia ad opera di Standard and Poor’s, con la conseguenza che nemmeno l’EFSF o ESM potrebbero più vantare lo stesso merito di credito. In questo contesto gli operatori di mercato incontrano enormi difficoltà nel trovare qualche motivo di ottimismo relativo all’Europa a causa della natura incontenibile della crisi che imbriglia i risky asset con dei ceppi difficili da rompere: la sensazione più diffusa è che si entrerà nel 2012 con lo stesso livello di incertezza che ha caratterizzato la seconda metà del 2011.
Pur tuttavia, sebbene l’attitudine ad intraprendere rischi sia al momento negativa, l’unica nota positiva sembrerebbe rappresentata dal fatto che l’ascesa dei rendimenti sui titoli spagnoli e italiani sia al momento contenuta. In questo contesto, l’Eurodollaro potrebbe proseguire un movimento di consolidamento tra $1,2950 e 1,3050: le chiusure giornaliere al di sotto di questo livello confermerebbero uno scenario ribassista verso i minimi di agosto 2010 a 1,2590. DollaroYen in rafforzamento verso 78.80; ancora lontano dalla parità con il biglietto verde il Dollaro Australiano, che ha sofferto il trading sottotono dei mercati asiatici.

London – 19th December 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)

Anyone hoping for a fairly quiet start to the last trading week in the lead up to Christmas didn’t bet on the actions of the ratings agencies late on Friday, or the news that North Korea’s Kim Jong-Il would pass away over the weekend.  Asian markets have slid sharply overnight on the news out of North Korea over uncertainty over who now has control in this secretive, authoritarian and often highly unpredictable regime, and this will no doubt see European markets follow suit this morning.

On Friday night both Moody’s and Fitch decided to take the opportunity to pass judgment on the 9th December EU summit. Moody’s downgraded Belgium two notches with a negative outlook, on the back of rising borrowing costs and the rising liabilities due to its exposure to bailed-out bank Dexia. It can’t have been any coincidence either that the downgrade came soon after the country announced that its economy contracted by 0.1% in Q3.

Fellow ratings agency Fitch followed Moody’s lead but only cocked the downgrade trigger by placing Belgium’s rating on negative watch, along with France, Spain, Italy and Ireland, citing sustained deterioration in funding conditions as well citing a lack of ECB support for sovereign shareholders.

The agency went on to say that a comprehensive fix to euro crisis is probably “beyond reach”. Fitch says it hopes to complete its review by the end of January 2012, by which time it could well pull the downgrade trigger.  Even without this, markets remain concerned that fellow agency Standard and Poor’s will shortly follow up its comments from prior to the EU summit, and downgrade France.

If France’s rating goes then the EFSF triple “A” rating will probably follow suit, as will any chance that the new ESM will get a triple “A” rating.  Later today European finance ministers of the Eurogroup will hold a conference call to discuss the matter of the extra €200bn of bilateral loans to the IMF, as well as other matters related to the fiscal compact.

There remains broad disagreement on a number of issues notwithstanding how much each European country will be asked to put up for these extra funds, with Britain being asked to put up €30bn, a figure rejected out of hand by UK PM Cameron at the end of last week.
The EU stated on Friday that only nine European countries need to ratify the agreement for it to come in to force, however Ireland has insisted that they won’t make any decisions until they have seen the full text, and then will decide on a referendum.

Ireland’s finance minister has already suggested that they would be looking for some form of quid pro quo in order to make its burden more affordable, especially after its latest GDP numbers showed the economy contracted by 1.9%.

EURUSD – Friday once again proved to be a day for consolidation between the low so far last week at 1.2950, and the 1.3050/70 break out level. The January lows at 1.2870 remain the main barrier to a move towards the August 2010 lows at 1.2590. Having closed below 1.3050 the onus continues to favour further downside and only a move beyond 1.3150 would change that.

GBPUSD – the pound continues to hold above the longer term support from the 2010 lows at 1.4230 which now comes in at 1.5420. A move below 1.5400 retargets the 1.5270 lows in October, and then 1.5190 61.8% retracement of the 1.4230/1.6745 up move. Currently pullbacks are finding it difficult to get above the 1.5580/90 area, while the larger resistance levels remains at the 55 day MA at 1.5740 as well as this month’s high at 1.5780. Only a break above here targets 1.5825 and 1.5900. 

EURGBP – the single currency continues to struggle for direction around the long term trend line support at 0.8390 from the October 2008 lows at 0.7695.  Last weeks’ close was right on it which is not the conclusive break which would encourage a move either way. It does seem only a matter of time before the line breaks but we must be prepared for pullbacks.
We could still see a squeeze back towards 0.8450 and even the 200 week MA at 0.8567 but the 2011 lows at 0.8285 remain the ultimate target. 

USDJPY – the US dollar continues to hold above the 77.20/30 level and 55 day MA area and this keeps the likelihood of a rally towards trend line resistance at 78.80 from the 2007 highs at 124.15, on a break above the 78.30 level, intact. The 200 day MA at 79.15 is the key long term resistance. Only below the 55 day MA would undermine this scenario, and risk a move lower that would see the next key support area around the 76.20/30 area, a break below of which opens up the lows at 75.30.


(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX Dealer Tim Waterer)

The Australian dollar is trading on the softer side to kick off the week. Having commenced trading this morning within sight of parity (at 0.9989), the currency has faded back below 0.9950 after the Australian share market took a hammering by falling over 2%. The US futures market turned from positive to negative which added to the selling pressure and had the AUDUSD rate moving lower toward 0.9930 by mid morning.

The source of the pessimism on Asian markets today stems from the negative rhetoric pertaining to European credit ratings from Friday. Traders are having a hard time finding any bright spots relating to Europe at this point, with the overwhelming nature of the crisis serving to act as a seemingly unbreakable shackle on risk assets. Financial markets had been hoping for some Christmas cheer on the European front but it now appears that traders will enter 2012 with the same level of uncertainty as that which plagued the second half of 2011. 

US Home Sales data as well as a GDP reading will be noteworthy events this week on the economic calendar, however it is difficult to envisage that these results will be strong enough to offset concerns in Europe. In the case of the AUD, the 0.9820-1.0080 range will be in play the next few days, with the risk sensitive AUD likely to correlate with movements on the S&P500 index.

(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Chief Market Strategist Ric Spooner)

Today’s trading is likely to set the tone for a subdued week on the Australian stock market.
Europe continues to be the driving macro factor determining investor attitudes toward risk assets such as shares. The move by Fitch Ratings to place France on a negative credit outlook and to place a number of other European nations including Spain on a rating watch negative only reflects a risk situation that is well understood. However, announcements of potential ratings downgrades impact market sentiment.

A downgrade of the major European economies such as France and Germany focuses attention on the capacity of Eurozone governments to contain a situation in which sovereign debt contagion threatened the functioning of financial markets. This concern was directly addressed by Fitch when they noted “Of particular concern is the absence of a credible financial backstop. This requires more active and financial commitment from the ECB”

Although share market sentiment and attitude toward risk is getting little to be positive about at the moment, one encouraging factor has been that the rise in Spanish and Italian long term bond yields has been contained in recent weeks. Spanish bond yields fell significantly last week and have returned to the levels of September/October. Bond yields are the canary in the mine. The core risk is that they rise to levels that are unsustainably expensive for nations to pay.

So it is comforting to see that the yields on debt for these too big to fail nations are currently below levels that are generally seen as being unsustainable over the longer term.  In what will be a fairly quiet period for scheduled economic releases domestically and internationally, investors will be focussing on anecdotal reports on the Christmas and early January sales. In addition to being directly relevant to major retail stocks this provides some insight into the overall state of consumer confidence which will be a key driver of economic growth and corporate profitability in coming months.





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