M. Hewson: riflettori puntati su Madrid
La moneta unica è tornata sui minimi di periodo a seguito del fallimento dell’Ecofin nel raggiungere un accordo su un prestito addizionale di 200 miliardi di euro al Fondo Monetario Internazionale: il fatto di non avere superato quota 150 a causa dell’opposizione della Gran Bretagna e le riserve espresse da altri Paesi quali Repubblica ceca, Danimarca, Polonia e Svezia (che potrebbero avere bisogno di un voto favorevole dei rispettivi Parlamenti) e la messa in discussione della regola del voto unanime circa le risoluzioni dell’ESM hanno messo alla prova l’Euro, che rimane imbrigliato in una fascia di consolidamento compresa tra $1,2950 e 1,3050.
Con tali prospettive di ulteriori disaccordi sulla scena politica europea, l’incertezza sembra ancora il sentimento prevalente sui mercati nella settimana di avvicinamento alle festività natalizie. Non aiutano le ammissioni del governo spagnolo circa il probabile mancato raggiungimento dell’obiettivo di Pil previsto per il quarto trimestre del 2011 così come dei target fiscali a causa delle misure di austerity che amplificano gli effetti recessivi della manovra: gli occhi degli investitori sono dunque puntati su Madrid che oggi mette in asta titoli a brevi scadenze per quattro miliardi di euro complessivi. In Gran Bretagna la Sterlina si è rafforzata sia sul Dollaro che sull’Euro a seguito del miglioramento della fiducia dei consumatori misurata a novembre. DollaroYen ancora ingessato sopra quota 77,20 che continua a lasciare aperte le possibilità di un rally verso 78,50.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
London – 20th December 2011
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Analyst Michael Hewson)
The single currency slid back towards its recent lows after the failure of European finance ministers to agree on the full €200bn worth of additional loans to the IMF. The figure in question looks likely to be closer €150bn after the UK said they would only contribute as part of a wider global agreement, and only if other countries outside the EU are party to the plan.
Other EU nations also expressed reservations about the loans, including Germany’s Bundesbank but indicated they may take part if other countries like they US also did so.
These other countries also included the Czech Republic, Denmark, Poland and Sweden, though they might need approval from their parliaments first. The finance ministers also failed to agree on how ESM voting rules would work after Finland objected to the waiving of the unanimity rule in favour of qualified majority voting, with respect to raising extra capital.
With the prospect of further disagreements never too far away uncertainty is likely to remain the primary sentiment as markets wind down for the Christmas break.
In Spain the new Prime Minister confirmed the size of the task ahead by admitting that the country was likely to miss its Q4 GDP target and that further austerity and recession will likely see fiscal targets missed. If that wasn’t enough they will also have to find another €14.6bn as part of the new bi-lateral loan agreement to the IMF, though will get that back in the event it needs a bailout in future.
Today’s 3 and 6 month T-bill auction of around €4bn is likely to see yields continue at their recently elevated levels, and increasing the pressure on the Spanish economy.
In Germany the latest IFO business sentiment and expectations for December are due and the prognosis isn’t expected to improve. Only last week the head of the IFO suggested that the Eurozone needed to be smaller and thus acknowledging the toxic legacy the crisis was having on sentiment.
Business climate is expected to decline to 106 from 106.6 while current expectations are expected to slip to 97 from 97.3. German GFK consumer confidence is also expected to remain weak at 5.5, while producer prices are expected to slip back to 5.2%.
Italian industrial orders are also expected to remain weak in October, though should improve from the -8.3% in September, to -1.3%. In the UK the pound received a small boost after Nationwide consumer confidence for November bounced back to a reading of 40, from record lows in October of 36, as consumers looked forward to the Christmas shopping period.
Later this morning the latest CBI retail sales for December are expected to improve slightly in the lead-up to Christmas with an improvement from the -19 in November to -14.
In the US the latest housing starts data for November is expected to improve slightly to 1.1% from October’s -0.3%, however building permits are expected to decline 1.4% after Octobers surprise 9.3% rise.
EURUSD – consolidation is proving to be the name of the game at the moment between the low so far last week at 1.2950, and the 1.3050/70 break out level. The January lows at 1.2870 remain the main barrier to a move towards the August 2010 lows at 1.2590.
Having closed below 1.3050 the onus continues to favour further downside and only a move beyond 1.3150 would change that.
GBPUSD – the pound continues to consolidate in a range between the recent highs around 1.5580 and above the longer term support from the 2010 lows at 1.4230 which now comes in at 1.5420. A move below 1.5400 retargets the 1.5270 lows in October, and then 1.5190 61.8% retracement of the 1.4230/1.6745 up move. Only a move beyond the 1.5580/90 area has the potential to target the larger resistance at the 55 day MA at 1.5740 as well as this month’s high at 1.5780. A break above here targets 1.5825 and 1.5900.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to struggle for direction between the recent lows at 0.8370 and the recent range highs at 0.8430. We really need to see a break out either side for clues as to further direction while the lack of a conclusive break of long term trend line support from the 0.7650 lows isn’t constructive one way or the other. Even though the line has broken the lack of an impulsive move suggest we must be prepared for pullbacks. We could still see a squeeze back towards 0.8450 and even the 200 week MA at 0.8567 but the 2011 lows at 0.8285 remain the ultimate target.
USDJPY – the US dollar continues to hold above the 77.20/30 level and 55 day MA area and this keeps the likelihood of a rally towards trend line resistance at 78.50 from the 2007 highs at 124.15, on a break above the 78.30 level, intact. The 200 day MA at 79.10 is the key long term resistance. Only below the 55 day MA would undermine this scenario, and risk a move lower that would see the next key support area around the 76.20/30 area, a break below of which opens up the lows at 75.30.