M. Hewson: eurodollaro, il cedimento di 1,2860/70 potrebbe portare verso 1,3
Il successo delle aste di titoli di stato spagnoli e italiani ieri ha favorito il recupero dell’euro, ma resta da vedere se le banche e gli investitori siano disposti ad acquistare senza remore anche i titoli a scadenza più lunga, il test chiave per vedere se rendimenti più bassi siano sostenibili. Le aste dei BTP quinquennali e decennali a fine mese saranno la verifica finale. Oggi il collocamento di 3 miliardi di euro di titoli italiani triennali dovrebbe andare a buon fine con rendimenti in calo. Deludenti negli Usa i dati di ieri sulle nuove richieste di disoccupazione e le vendite al dettaglio. EuroDollaro: il cedimento dell’area 1,2860/70 potrebbe portare verso il livello 1,3000 e anche 1,3080. EuroSterlina: i minimi del settembre 2010 a 0,8200/05 rimane il maggiore ostacolo per ulteriori discese verso i minimi a 0,8065. DollaroYen: il supporto chiave rimane attorno ai minimi di novembre 2011 a 76,50, sotto il quale si profilano i minimi storici a 75,30.
The sharp rebound in the single currency over the past 24 hours was in no small part aided by the success of the Spanish and Italian bond auctions yesterday. Yields fell sharply as Spain sold twice its target on the fairly short dated bonds it made available. It has been speculated that the new 3 year LTRO’s initiated by the ECB last month have played a large part in the success of bringing yields down as banks take advantage of the low borrowing costs to play the carry on sovereign bond yields.
It remains to be seen whether banks and investors will be prepared to do that with longer term paper and that really remains the acid test, as to whether these lower borrowing costs are sustainable.
There is also speculation that the relaxation of capital rules, to be finalised next week could see the unlocking of trillions of extra euros with which banks can use for collateral to gain access to these ECB loans.
In any event the five and ten year BTP auctions at the end of this month will be the key barometer here.
Today’s Italian bond auction of €3bn of three year debt, maturing in November 2014 is likely to go the same way as yesterday’s successful T-bill auctions, with lower yields, and certainly below the yields seen in December at around 5.62%, for similar terms.
In the UK yesterday’s decision to keep monetary policy unchanged was no surprise, given the current elevated levels of inflation in the UK. Today the latest December Producer prices index is expected to slip back in line with the banks expectations, with annualised input prices expected to slip back from 13.4% to 9.1%. Output prices are expected to fall back from an annualised 5.4% in November to 5%.
Yesterday’s US weekly jobless claims and retail sales numbers were a disappointment in light of recent improvement in economic data. The latest US trade numbers are expected to continue to disappoint with the deficit expanding to $45bn from November’s $43.5bn deficit.
Preliminary Michigan confidence data for January is expected to improve from December’s 69.9 to 71.5.
EURUSD – the euro’s failure to break below the double support at 1.2660/70 this week has seen the rebound that we warned about earlier this week towards the resistance around the 1.2860/70 area. If this 1.2860/70 area was to give way we could see an overspill towards the 1.3000 level and even towards the 1.3080 area. The odds continue to favour a move towards the August 2010 lows at 1.2590 which also equates to a 76.4% retracement of the up move from the 2010 lows at 1.1880 to last years highs at 1.4940. It would need a break below 1.2480 and the July 2010 lows to open up the 1.2000 level.
GBPUSD – the pound continued to come under pressure yesterday but was unable to break below the October lows at 1.5270. A break below these levels could well see a sharp move to a test of the 1.5190 61.8% retracement of the 1.4230/1.6745 up move. There is also support at 1.5125, the July 2010 lows, a break of which targets 1.4980. Rebounds should find resistance around the 1.5380 area while to stabilise in the medium term would need to get back above the 1.5570 area to retarget the 55 day MA at 1.5740.
EURGBP – yesterday’s break above the 0.8300/10 level saw the single currency move higher towards the 0.8370 area as suggested in yesterday’s note. The 0.8300/10 level should now act as support, on any pullbacks. If the single currency can close this week at levels above 0.8320, we could well see a deeper correction towards the 0.8480 area. The September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05 remain the key obstacle to further declines towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065.
USDJPY – maintaining the status quo here with support around the 76.50 area and resistance at a confluence of the 55 day MA at 77.50 and trend line resistance at 77.75 from the 2007 highs at 124.15. The key support remains around the November 2011 lows at 76.50 which prompted last week’s pullback. Only a move and close below 76.50 opens up the all-time lows at 75.30.