M. Hewson: in Gran Bretagna crescono le possibilità di ulteriori misure di QE
Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, analista di CMC Markets.
Fari puntati sulla Grecia per la ripresa delle trattative sulla ristruttutrazione volontaria del debito con i creditori privati, ma l’agenzia di rating Fitch ieri ha dichiarato che è certo il default. L’euro ieri ha recuperato leggermente grazie alle aste di titoli a breve termine spagnoli e dei bond dell’EFSF e anche ai dati macroeconomici tedeschi, ma è probabile che il successo sia dovuto soprattutto alla disponibilità di denaro a basso costo dalla BCE. Oggi in programma l’asta di titoli biennali tedeschi.
In Gran Bretagna i dati sull’inflazione, resi noti ieri, rendono più probabili ulteriori misure di QE da parte della banca centrale.Oggi escono i dati sulla disoccupazione in dicembre, mentre dagli Usa si attendono le cifre sulla produzione industriale e sui prezzi alla produzione in dicembre. EuroDollaro: l’abbandono dell’area 1,2870/80 può portare verso 1,3000 e persino 1,3080. EuroSterlina: il rally di ieri si è fermato sull’area 0,8320 con rischi di ulteriore salita verso 0,8370/80 e i massimi delle scorse settimane. DollaroYen: per la valuta Usa resta il supporto chiave attorno ai minimi di novembre 2011 a 76,50.
As the World Bank slashed its global growth forecasts due to events in Europe, all eyes will once again be on Greece today as talks restart with the IIF today on the voluntary restructuring of the debt with private creditors. The troika also returned to Athens yesterday to assess how to put together the next bailout package, in the wake of more protests from Greeks tired of cuts and austerity.
Ratings agency Fitch yesterday weighed into the debate saying that Greece was certain to default and that even if an agreement is reached the agency would treat it any such agreement as a default.
The single currency managed to regain a little ground yesterday on the back of a couple of fairly solid short term bond auctions for Spanish and EFSF bonds, as well as better than expected German economic sentiment data.
It seems highly likely that the bond success is more to do with the availability of cheap ECB money being used to buy higher yielding government bills, than any renewed confidence in the ability of EU leaders to resolve the debt crisis. A bigger test will come tomorrow with the longer term auctions of French and Spanish debt, as well as Italian bonds later this month.
Today’s German 2 year note auction is likely to see yields fall further in the wake of the ratings cuts on France and Austria by S&P, as demand rises for safer and higher rated government paper.
In the UK the latest inflation numbers were a welcome relief to the Bank of England MPC who have been claiming for years that inflation would peak and start to come down. The good thing about that is if you say it often enough you will soon be proved correct.
Yesterday’s fall from 4.8% to 4.2% was the biggest monthly fall since April 2009, and has increased the likelihood that the Bank could well be minded to embark on further QE at the next meeting.
Today’s unemployment data could also go some way to reinforcing the belief of more QE with the release of the latest jobless claims numbers for December, with the claimant count set to increase by 7k, up from November’s 3k increase. The ILO unemployment rate is set to remain unchanged at 8.3%. With a number of economic forecasters already suggesting that the UK could well already be in recession, continued weak data would increase the pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee to act.
US economic data is set to continue its recent improvement after yesterday’s better than expected Empire manufacturing number for January improved beyond expectations.
The release of industrial production data for December is expected to show an improvement on November’s 0.2% decline, coming in at a 0.5% rise, while factory gate prices are also expected show a decline from November’s 0.3% rise to 0.1% in December.
EURUSD – the single currency continues to find support in and around the mid 1.2650 area but it also appears to be finding selling interest above 1.2800. For the moment it appears that the market is looking for the weaker side of the 1.2620/1.2880 range that we’ve seen in the last few days. The key support lies near to the key 1.2600 level that represents the 76.4% retracement of the up move from the 2010 lows at 1.1880 to last years highs at 1.4940. This support level also coincides with the August 2010 lows at 1.2590. A concerted break below this level would target 1.2480, the July 2010 lows and then on to 1.2000. The key barrier on the upside remains the resistance around the 1.2870/80 or last weeks highs. If the 1.2870/80 area were to give way we could see an overspill towards the 1.3000 level and even towards the 1.3080 area.
GBPUSD – the pound has had a couple of attempts to push through the 1.5400 level without much success in the past three days but has continued to find support above the 1.5270 October lows, without making too much in the way of headway, either up or down. It would appear that there is some selling interest in and around the 1.5400 area but to stabilise in the medium term we would need to get back above the 1.5570 area to retarget the 55 day MA at 1.5740. The 1.5190 level remains a key support area given that it is 61.8% retracement of the 1.4230/1.6745 up move. There is also support at 1.5125, the July 2010 lows, a break of which targets 1.4980.
EURGBP – yesterday’s rally stalled around the 0.8320 area which suggests the risk for further gains towards the 0.8370/80 area and last weeks highs. Any break above here targets the 55 day MA at 0.8455. This should cap any gains for a move back towards the 0.8220 lows from last week, and target the September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05 which remain the key obstacle to further declines towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065.
USDJPY – the US dollar again found support around the 76.50 area yesterday rallying strongly off the level. The resistance remains at the confluence of the 55 day MA at 77.55 and trend line resistance at 77.70 from the 2007 highs at 124.15. The key support remains around the November 2011 lows at 76.50 which prompted last week’s pullback. Only a move and close below 76.50 opens up the all-time lows at 75.30.