Forex Morning Comments: l’eurodollaro potrebbe salire a 1,3450$
L’Eurosummit di oggi rappresenta un test cruciale per sondare quanto siano fondate le intenzioni tedesche di commissariare di fatto il governo greco sui temi di finanza pubblica. Con la questione ancora irrisolta della ristrutturazione volontaria greca e dei dubbi legati alla possibilità di concedere nuovi aiuti, a fronte di un peggioramento della situazione dei conti pubblici, ci si domanda come colmare il deficit gap che si è venuto a creare nonostante l’ultima tranche di finanziamenti concessi ad ottobre: spetterà al governo greco mettere mano a nuove misure di austerità o alla Bce accettare una sforbiciata sui titoli ellenici detenuti? Il timore è che, finchè non verrà risolta la questione, ogni soluzione circa il coinvolgimento del settore privato sarà ancora rinviata. Oggi verifica della tenuta del sentiment degli investitori sull’Italia con la prima asta di titoli pubblici a cinque e dieci anni a seguito del downgrading di Fitch.
All’interno del quadro in evoluzione, l’Eurodollaro prosegue nel suo recupero con la possibilità di intravedere $1,3450; solo una rottura al di sotto di 1,3060 riaprirebbe la strada ribassista verso 1,2940. La capacità del Dollaro Usa di attrarre investimenti è andata al tappeto la scorsa settimana a seguito dell’annuncio della Fed che avrebbe mantenuto tassi bassi fino al 2014 mentre la moneta unica, che sta beneficiando delle aspettative circa la definizione della ristrutturazione greca e soprattutto della debolezza della divisa americana, continua a recuperare terreno. Sul cambio DollaroYen, il mancato superamento di quota 78 ha portato a nuove vendite sul biglietto verde rinnovando i timori di un rafforzamento dello yen ed un eventuale nuovo intervento della BoJ: in questo caso il livello da non oltrepassare al ribasso è quello di 76,50. In assenza di notizie negtive, prosegue il rally del Dollaro Australiano : fintantochè i mercati globali continueranno a concentrarsi solo sulle positività in emersione il trend continuerà a privilegiare risky asset come l’Aussie (considerata una moneta sensibile al recupero della fiducia) con la possibilità di rivedere 1,07 nel cambio contro il DollaroUsa già questa settimana.
FOREX MORNING COMMENTS
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Michael Hewson)
Today’s EU summit is likely to be a rather testy affair after reports on Friday that Berlin wanted more stringent EU oversight of Greece’s finances in return for a new bailout, as concerns grow over the country’s ability to deliver on its financial obligations.
Items on the agenda to be discussed include the fiscal compact as well as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the (FTT) Financial Transaction tax. In any case all of these items remain secondary to the main problem exercising investor’s attention at the moment, which is the problem of a new bailout for Greece, as well as the agreement on the (PSI) private sector involvement. New bailout talks look set to continue with speculation that any agreement will insist on new austerity measures to bridge a new funding gap, while Friday’s German additional EU oversight demands have not gone down well in Athens, prompting widespread anger.
Greek Finance Minister Venizelos rejected any notion of reduced Greek fiscal oversight outright, and there is deep unease that the suggestion was made at all, but they underline German, as well as IMF concern about the Greek government’s ability to implement the measures being asked of them now, and in the future.
Talks with Greece’s private creditors are said to be progressing and agreement apparently reached with respect to a debt restructuring to the tune of a 70% haircut, but this has been the line for the past two weeks and there still appears to be no official confirmation of the fact.
It would also appear that due to further fiscal deterioration in Greece’s finances a funding gap has opened up since the second bailout was agreed in October which needs agreement on further measures to close it. The argument revolves around who fills this gap. Will it be Greece, with further austerity measures, or asset sales, or the ECB in giving up its profits from Greek bond purchases?
Until this issue is resolved and Athens acquiesces to further troika demands in return for a second bailout, any prospective PSI agreement announcement could well be delayed. The action by ratings agency Fitch in finally delivering on its long awaited threat to downgrade Italy, Spain and three other European countries with a negative outlook, barely caused a ripple in currency markets on Friday, probably because the downgrades had been so well telegraphed before hand.
In any event unlike Standard and Poor’s, the agency reaffirmed France’s triple “A” rating as well as all the other triple “A” country ratings in Europe. Given that Italy’s bond yields have dropped sharply in the past few days in the wake of some successful short term auctions, today’s 5 and 10 year auctions will be a key test of investor demand for the country’s longer term paper, especially in view of Friday’s downgrade by Fitch. The auctions are for up to €4bn of 2017 and €2bn of 2022 paper.
EURUSD – the single currency has continued its recent rally holding above the 1.3060 support as it closes in on the 1.3250 38.2% retracement of the down move from the October highs at 1.4250 to the recent lows at 1.2610. A break here could well target a deeper move towards 1.3450. To reopen a downside move we would need to see a break below 1.3060 to retarget last Wednesday’s lows at 1.2940/50 level which prompted the sharp rebound at the end of last week. The key support level remains around the 1.2850/60 area and only below this level reopens a move towards the key 1.2600 level which represents the 76.4% retracement of the up move from the 2010 lows at 1.1880 to last years highs at 1.4940. This support level also coincides with the August 2010 lows at 1.2590.
GBPUSD – ten successive up days has seen the pound push close to but not as yet exceed the December highs at 1.5770, just about keeping the bias to the downside and the longer term downtrend intact. Only a move above 1.5780 targets a move towards 1.5920 and slightly above that the 200 day MA 1.5968. The 1.5550 area looks like to continue to act as support on any move back lower, which if broken, could see a move back to 1.5360.
EURGBP – the single currency is homing in on the resistance around the 0.8420 cap. While 0.8420 caps the focus remains for further euro losses back towards the September 2010 lows at 0.8200/05, which remain the key obstacle to further declines towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065. A break of 0.8420 could well trigger a sharp move towards 0.8500.
USDJPY – last weeks failure to get above the 200 day MA at 78.30 has seen the US dollar drop sharply once again raising concerns about the strong yen, and possible central bank intervention from the Bank of Japan. It needs a move beyond these two resistance levels to target a move towards the October 2011 highs at 79.55. The lows this month and in November at 76.50 remain the key support Only a move and close below 76.50 opens up the all-time lows at 75.30.
REINVIGORATED EURO ON CENTRE STAGE IN CURRENCY MARKET
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior FX dealer Tim Waterer)
Recent occurrences in financial markets have served to reinvigorate the Euro, with the currency finding new life against the Greenback. The attractiveness of the US Dollar took a substantial hit last week, after the Federal Reserve ‘laid the table’ for low interest rates until late 2014. The USD has been largely shunned by traders in recent weeks, and even a light scare from the GDP print did not have the US Dollar garnering much in the way of safe haven buying.
The Euro has enjoyed a remarkable run lately with traders finding solace in the prospect of a debt swap deal materialising. However the ‘purple patch’ that the Euro is currently experiencing is as much to do with broad based USD weakness as it is about brighter Eurozone prospects. The 3.5 cent appreciation last week of the Euro is a far cry from signalling European salvation.
Whilst the Euro has been on centre stage, the Australian Dollar has continued to go about its business of steadily progressing higher in the absence of any wide scale negativity. Global financial markets continue to shake off bad news and focus on the positives, and this sort of trading environment is very conducive to an appreciation by a confidence-sensitive currency like the AUD. A move to 1.07 is within range this week if equity markets enjoy another positive week.
We have a busy economic calendar ahead this week with US manufacturing data and consumer confidence being among the highlights. There is also Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifying before the house budget committee, whilst Chinese manufacturing PMI on Wednesday may create added volatility in currency markets. The upcoming US Non Farm Payrolls data on Friday will be in the back of traders’ minds all week, and it shapes as the key event to circle on the calendar this week.