M. Hewson: Mercati in attesa di notizie dai creditori della Grecia
La notizia che almeno 12 membri del comitato dei creditori della Grecia, tra cui BNP Paribas e Deutsche Bank, hanno annunciato che parteciperanno allo swap del debito ha suscitato la speranza in una notizia positiva per l’Europa alla scadenza del termine giovedì. Resta però ancora molta strada, dato che quelle banche rappresentano solo il 20% dei bond oggetto dell’accordo per il PSI.
La dichiarazione del ministro delle Finanze Venizelos che la Grecia è pronta a far scattare le clausole di azione collettiva fa temere che questo possa attivare la copertura assicurativa dei CDS, ma in ogni caso per far partire le clausole è necessario che l’accordo abbia un tasso di adesione del 66%, altrimenti decade e c’è il default.
I dati economici europei ieri, soprattutto quelli italiani e spagnoli, hanno suscitato timori di una doppia recessione, e i dati odierni sul Pil della Ue nel quadro trimestre potrebbero confermare una contrazione dell’economia. In Gran Bretagna i dati macroeconomici continuano a tenere bene, nonostante l’indice PMI dei servizi leggermente deludente ieri. EuroDollaro: un movimento sotto 1,3160 può portare ad ulteriore discesa verso 1,3000. Solo al di sopra di 1,3490 decade lo scenario ribassista e si profila quota 1,3630. EuroSterlina: supporto a 0,8305. La pressione al ribasso continua ad essere dominante, ma potremmo vedere ritorni verso 0,8400. DollaroYen: la chiusura di venerdì sopra la resistenza a 81,00 aumenta le prospettive di ulteriori forti guadagni del dollaro.Primo target a 82,85.
Markets set to open flat as Greek creditors start to announce intentions
Yesterday’s news that at least 12 members of the IMF Greece creditor’s steering committee, including BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank announced that they would be participating in the Greece debt swap deal has raised hopes in some quarters that Thursday’s deadline could bring about some good news for Europe. At the risk of being cynical there remains a long way to go given that these particular banks account for only 20% of the available bonds covered in the PSI agreement. We can probably expect a further drip feeding of these types of announcements between now and Thursday’s deadline.
Yesterday’s comments by finance minister Venizelos that Greece was ready to enforce collective action clauses to enforce losses also raised concerns that such an action would trigger the CDS insurance, however to trigger the clauses the deal still needs a 66% acceptance rate otherwise the deal falls through and the default happens anyway.
Yesterday’s European economic data didn’t offer much in the way of comfort either, particularly out of Spain and Italy which has raised concerns that Europe could well be on the cusp of a double dip recession. Spanish and Italian services PMI data for February collapsed quite spectacularly with Italian PMI dropping to 44.1, while Spain’s collapsed from 46.1 to 41.9. This collapse in Spanish data reinforces the decision by Spanish PM Rajoy to defy Brussels and announce a 5.8% target for its 2012 budget, in direct contravention of Brussels 4.4% target. This prompted Olli Rehn’s spokesman to warn Spain about the deviation and see whether or not the so called fiscal compact’s bite matches the rhetoric.
Today’s EU Q4 GDP numbers are expected to confirm that the European economy contracted by 0.3% in the final quarter of 2011, and if recent figures are anything to go by Europe’s economy looks likely to contract in Q1 of 2012 as well, and as such herald a double-dip recession. In the UK economic data continues to hold up fairly well despite yesterday’s slightly disappointing services PMI data for UK, which came in slightly below expectations of 54.9, but was still well above its European peers at 53.9. Given the recent positive surprises in UK data this morning’s release of the latest retail sales numbers from the British Retail Consortium were surprising in that there was no February improvement from January’s -0.3% drop. The body said any revival in sales “remains illusory” with food sales offsetting continued declines in non-food sales.
The RBA, as expected, left Australian interest rates unchanged at 4.25%, despite concerns over China’s recent growth downgrade and the path of recent Chinese economic data. Australia’s exposure to the Chinese economy has raised concerns that any slowdown could hit commodity demand from its biggest trading customer. The bank said that all the evidence suggested a deep downturn is not occurring in the global economy. The RBA did say, however that “should demand conditions weaken materially, the inflation outlook would provide scope for easier monetary policy.”
EURUSD – the trend line support from the January lows at 1.2625 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.2625/1.3490 up move at 1.3160 has managed to contain the downside yesterday prompting a pullback. A move below 1.3160 argues for further declines towards 1.3000. The 100 day MA at 1.3290 remains a key level and we could well see a further rebound back towards this level, while the 4 hour charts remain oversold. There remains a risk of a rebound back towards 1.3370, which is the breakout level from the double top formation at 1.3490. Only above the 1.3490 level negates the bearish set up and argues 1.3630.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s dip below 1.5800 failed to follow through and saw the pound rebound back towards the 200 day MA at 1.5895 which could well act as strong resistance on any rebound. If our rebound is able to take out the 1.5900 barrier then we’re probably back looking at a retest of 1.6000. The 1.5800 level remains a key barrier to a retest of the 1.5720 level, while the double support at the 55 day MA and February lows at 1.5650/60 is a key level.
EURGBP – the euro stay becalmed yesterday near the bottom end of its recent range but just above trend line support at 0.8305 from the January lows at 0.8220. Further downside pressure continues to be the dominant theme; however we could see pullbacks towards the 0.8400 level. A move through the 0.8300 level retargets the January range lows.
USDJPY – Friday’s close above the weekly Ichimoku cloud resistance at 81.00 increases the prospects for further strong US dollar gains over the coming weeks. This is an important signal as in the four times the dollar has done this since 1988 it has gone onto post significant gains in the ensuing months. The first target remains the 82.85 area which is the 38.2% retracement of the entire down move from the 95.00 highs to the all time lows at 75.30. Only a weekly close back inside the cloud would throw this scenario into doubt. The top of the cloud at 81.00 should act as some support as should last week’s low at 80.00, though even a drop to 79.20 wouldn’t damage the current upward momentum but we need to see a close above the weekly Ichimoku cloud resistance at 81.00 to reinforce the case for further gains.