M. Hewson: i rendimenti dei bond risalgono con il ritorno dei timori in Europa
La delusione per i dati economici di ieri da Francia e Germania ha riportato in alto i rendimenti dei bond decennali italiani e spagnoli. Con Belgio, Olanda, Italia, Portogallo, Grecia e Irlanda in recessione tornano i timori sulla capacità dell’Europa di evitare il contagio e cresce la pressione sulla Germania affinché consenta l’aumento del nuovo fondo di salvataggio, ESM, con un termine a fine mese entro il quale i governi devono raggiungere l’accordo.
La Commissione UE ha dato l’indicazione di unire i due strumenti, EFSF ed ESM, ma la Germania è riluttante viste le tensioni politiche sui costi che il Paese dovrebbe sostenere in caso di un maggior impegno. Se in Grecia la ristrutturazione del debito è ormai in porto, i problemi finanziari della Spagna suscitano timori vista la rilevanza del paese. In Italia il governo deve varare la riforma del mercato del lavoro, mentre l’economia sta arretrando.
Giornata negativa ieri in Gran Bretagna dopo la notizia del calo delle vendite al dettaglio superiore al previsto, il segnale che forse la ripresa dei consumi si è fermata.
EuroDollaro: resta nel range bloccato dai massimi a 1,3290 che frenano il rialzo dell’euro. In discesa il supporto chiave rimane il minimo di febbraio a 1,2975. EuroSterlina: un breve slancio verso 0,8370 non ha portato a un nuovo test dell’area 0,8400 e la moneta unica è tornata verso 0,8320. DollaroYen: potremmo vedere un movimento verso 81,85 e poi 80,60, ma la tendenza è per un progresso di lungo termine.
Bond yields start to rise as Europe worries return
Yesterday’s disappointing economic data from France and Germany saw concerns about growth in Europe push back near to the top of the agenda as 10 year bond yields in Italy and Spain started to edge back higher again, above the 5% level, bringing the recent rise in equity markets to a shuddering halt.
This has raised concerns that the recent good run in equity markets could be over and we could be heading back down again. With Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Portugal, Greece and now Ireland in recession, concerns about the ability of Europe to prevent a contagion effect are beginning to resonate once more in Brussels, ahead of next week’s European finance ministers meeting in Copenhagen.
Pressure is beginning to build on Germany to countenance an increase to the new bailout mechanism, the ESM, with a self imposed deadline of the end of the month for agreement to be reached by EU governments. The EU commission has urged the combination of the EFSF with the ESM; however Germany is reluctant given that any increase may well require parliamentary approval which is by no means certain given some of the political debate and unease starting to take place about the eventual costs in Germany at the moment.
With Greece’s debt restructuring soon to be finalised with the deadline for foreign law bonds due to expire today, concerns about Spain’s fiscal problems are now starting to concern policymakers given that it is widely acknowledged to be too big to fail. Italian PM Mario Monti has his own problems with his battle to overhaul regulation in the labour markets as the economy slides back sharply.
After this week saw industrial data slide back sharply it will be the Italian consumer which will be in the spotlight today with retail sales data for February due to show another decline. Year on year they are expected to decline 3.4% and 0.1% month on month.
The pound had a pretty rough day yesterday after February retail sales posted their largest fall since May last year, dropping 0.8%, much worse than expected suggesting that the recent recovery in consumer sentiment has ground to a halt. The release of February Nationwide Consumer confidence numbers seemed to reinforce that sentiment when they slipped back from a reading of 47 in January, coming in well below expectations of 48 at 44. The main reasons cited by Nationwide were rising unemployment and weak economic growth after the contraction in Q4.
EURUSD – still in the range capped by the highs at 1.3290 which continue to cap upside momentum in the euro. While below 1.3300 the risk remains for a lower euro while a significant break above the 1.3290 level retargets this year’s highs at 1.3490. Yesterday’s break below 1.3175 saw a move to 1.3135 which should open up a move towards the 1.3070 level. On the downside the key support remains the February lows at 1.2975 on the way to 1.2800.
GBPUSD – the 1.5930 level capped the pound again yesterday and saw the pound push below the interim support at the 1.5820 area before rebounding from 1.5770. To follow through on the downside it needs to hold below the 1.5820 level to target a move back towards the larger support level at 1.5610 and last week’s low. It is also 50% retracement of the entire up move from the 1.5240 lows to the 1.5990 highs, remains a key support. Above the 1.5930 area has the potential to target a move to the 1.6000 level and even the October and November highs at 1.6170. A break below 1.5610 argues for further weakness towards 1.5530, the 61.8% level of the same move as well as 1.5420.
EURGBP – a brief spill over to 0.8370 lacked the impetus to retest the 0.8400 level and as such the single currency slid back to the 0.8320 area. While below the 0.8400 level the focus remains for a move towards a retest of the January lows at 0.8220, on a break below the 0.8280 level.
USDJPY – the failure at the double top at 84.10/20 saw the dollar slide back towards the 82.85 level and push straight back below it, which suggests that we could well see a move towards 81.85 initially on the way back to the 80.60 level. In the medium term we could well have seen a short term top but the bias remains for a longer term move higher. The weekly close now becomes important, as we look at a possible reversal, but as long as we remain above the Ichimoku cloud, the longer term bias remains for a move higher towards 85.15.