M. Hewson: l’asta dei bond olandesi rappresenta un test dopo la caduta del governo
La caduta del governo olandese per le divergenze sul programma di austerità ha accentuato i timori che uno dei pochi paesi con la tripla “A” possa perdere il rating e anche la capacità di dare una risposta coordinata, perché minato da tensioni politiche. L’agenzia di rating Moody’s ieri sera ha detto che la caduta del governo potrebbe essere considerata “credit negative”. Oggi in asta bond olandesi con scadenza 2037 e con durata più breve, che saranno probabilmente collocati ma con un rendimento prevedibilmente più elevato, visto il rialzo dei rendimenti ieri.
In Gran Bretagna la sterlina ha toccato i massimi da metà 2009, grazie al suo status di bene rifugio dalle turbolenze europee. Oggi i dati sui prestiti netti al settore pubblico saranno un test. Negli Usa nervosismo per le incertezze su un possibile nuovo QE, anche se i numeri non sembrano giustificare un intervento della Fed nel breve termine. In agenda le cifre sulla fiducia dei consumatori e sulle vendite di nuove case.
EuroDollaro: la mancanza di un proseguimento sopra 1,3200 ha determinato una ricaduta verso 1,3100 e la moneta unica resta bloccata in un consolidamento triangolare, con resistenza appena sopra 1,3200, trend line di resistenza a 1,3310 e supporto 1,3040. DollaroYen: il calo di ieri al livello 80,70 mantiene intatta la fase di ascesa. Il dollaro Usa deve rompere oltre i massimi delle due settimane a 81,85/90 per puntare di nuovo a 83,30.
Dutch bond auction set to gauge investor response to government collapse
Yesterday’s sharp sell off in equity markets across Europe has seen uncertainty once more again return to the forefront of investors thoughts as political factors in Europe once again make for an uncertain outlook. The collapse of the Dutch government over austerity budget disagreements has stoked fears that one of the few remaining European triple “A” countries could not only lose its prized rating, but also see any future co-ordinated response undermined by local political difficulties.
This fear was reinforced late last night by ratings agency Moody’s who said that the collapse of the government should be considered “credit negative”. Bond markets will put this new political backdrop to the test this morning when the Dutch look to sell a 2037 bond and a short dated bond. While the two issues look likely to get away, the yield on the issuance could well be higher, given the sharp rise in yields seen yesterday. Yields shot up not only on Dutch bonds but on Spanish, Italian and French 10 year bonds as well.
In the UK the pound hit its highest levels since mid 2009 as it continues to enjoy somewhat of a haven status from the turmoil in Europe. This could well be put to the test this morning with the publication of the last set of borrowing figures for 2011, with expectations that the March figure could well increase to £14.2bn, an increase on February’s £12.9bn. while it remains likely that the Chancellor will likely meet his fiscal targets for 2011 it will be tomorrow’s first look at Q1 GDP data that could well be key to any further sterling gains.
In the US concerns about the US recovery continue to make investors nervous especially with respect to the prospects of further QE, however the current state of the data, such as it is, isn’t likely to prompt the Fed to act in the near term. A key barometer of investor sentiment for April is likely to give some indications as to confidence about the US economy with consumer confidence set to slip slightly from 70.2 to 69.5. New home sales for March aren’t likely to offer much comfort, though they are expected to rise 2.2%, reversing the 1.6% decline seen in February.
EURUSD – the lack of any follow through above 1.3200 prompted a drop back towards 1.3100 as the single currency continued to remain stuck in the broader triangular consolidation. The 55 day MA once more becomes resistance just above 1.3200, while trend line resistance at 1.3310 remains intact upside remains limited. With lower line support at 1.3040, a break of this triangle could well signal a 500 point move. To open up the lows this year at 1.2630 we need to see a concerted break below 1.2975. Only above 1.3400 targets the 200 day MA at 1.3525.
GBPUSD – the failure yesterday to break through the 1.6170 resistance level and November highs of last year remains a key barrier. Yesterday’s hanging man daily candle could provoke a deeper sell-off and delay any move towards 1.6400. Last week’s close above the 200 week MA for the first time since August 2008 points towards further gains along with the 50/200 daily MA golden cross over which also improves the odds of a move higher. Only a move below 1.6050 retargets the long term trend line support at 1.5870 from the January lows at 1.5235 which continues to act as support on the downside.
EURGBP – we continue to make new 19 month lows and this keeps the onus on the downside and a move towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065 as the next target. Any rallies should now find some semblance of resistance at the 0.8220 area, while behind that at 0.8280. While below the 0.8280 level the risk remains for further losses towards the 2010 lows at 0.8065. A move back above 0.8280 opens up risk for a move to 0.8310 trend line resistance from the February highs at 0.8505.
USDJPY – upside momentum remains intact after last weeks close above the cloud support now at the 80.70 level. Yesterday’s dip to the 80.70 level still keeps the upward momentum intact and while above this level on a weekly closing basis the outlook remains constructive for the US dollar despite the low last week around the 80.30 level. A weekly close below 80.70 argues for further losses towards 79.20. The US dollar does need to break back beyond the two weeks highs at 81.85/90 to retarget 83.30.