M. Hewson: UK, il calo dell’inflazione potrebbe riaccendere ipotesi di un nuovo QE
In Gran Bretagna c’è attesa per i dati sull’inflazione per verificare lo stato dell’economia dopo i segnali di possibile rallentamento del settore costruzioni nel primo trimestre. Da marzo i prezzi del petrolio in sterline sono scesi e questo potrebbe essersi riflesso nei prezzi al consumo di aprile, attesi in calo rispetto al mese precedente. Per i prezzi al dettaglio è prevista una flessione più contenuta.
Se il calo fosse maggiore delle stime, potrebbero tornare a circolare le ipotesi di nuove misure di stimolo all’economia in giugno, che probabilmente indebolirebbero la sterlina. Se invece la flessione fosse minore del previsto, il dibattito sui provvedimenti da prendere sarà più contrastato. Domani i verbali della Banca d’Inghilterra daranno indicazioni più chiare sull’orientamento del Comitato e anche sullo stato delle finanze pubbliche.
Nel resto dell’Europa continua la pressione sulla Germania perché attenui l’insistenza sull’austerità di bilancio, mentre il nuovo Presidente francese Hollande vuole riproporre misure come gli Eurobond e gli acquisti illimitati di bond da parte della BCE, ma difficilmente andrà lontano vista l’opposizione della Germania e anche di Finlandia, Austria e Olanda. Il problema più urgente è lo stato di salute del sistema bancario europeo, mentre l’IIF ipotizza perdite per 260 miliardi di euro per le banche spagnole, se si utilizza lo stesso rapporto di perdite sui prestiti applicato per la bolla immobiliare irlandese nello scenario peggiore. I leader europei dovrebbero preoccuparsi di più di questo problema, vista anche l’emorragia dei depositi bancari in Grecia e la debolezza delle banche italiane e spagnole.
EuroDollaro: supporto chiave intorno a 1,2600, mentre il gap a 1,3085 rimane la resistenza di lungo termine. EuroSterlina: per salire la moneta unica deve chiudere sopra il gap a 0,8100 e rischiare un movimento più profondo verso la resistenza a 0,8220; supporto intorno a 0,8050. DollaroYen: la pressione ribassista resta dominante e permane il rischio di discesa verso 78,50. Il livello 80,42 continua ad agire come resistenza.
UK inflation fall could spark new QE speculation
The perception of the UK economy changed markedly since the last Bank of England rate decision at the beginning of the month with concerns rising about the health of the UK economy increasing after data showed that the construction sector could well have contracted even more in the first quarter.
In that time MPC member and habitual dove Adam Posen has also suggested he may well have been mistaken in reversing his call for further QE. It is in this sense that today’s inflation numbers could well be important. We already know some MPC members, including deputy governor Paul Tucker are concerned about the stickiness of rising inflation, and it was primarily these concerns that probably staid the committee’s hand at the May meeting.
Since March oil prices have come down substantially in sterling terms, and this could well have fed through into the inflation numbers in April, as fuel prices dropped back on the forecourts. Expectations are for April CPI to slip back from 3.5% to 3.1%, while core prices are expected to slip back from 2.5% to 2%. RPI is expected to be slightly stickier, slipping back from 3.6% to 3.4%.
f prices do fall as much, or more than predicted, then we can expect the usual speculation about further stimulus measures in June, which is likely to weaken sterling further. On the other hand if the numbers prove to more resilient than expected expect the debate to be even more split, especially if this week’s GDP revision disappoints.
Tomorrow’s Bank of England minutes will give a clearer guide to any splits on the committee, that’s for sure. We will also get the first indication of the state of the public finances (PSNB) for the new tax year with the release of the April public finances with expectations of a surplus of £22.8bn due to one off items from the Royal Mail Pension fund, as well as fees owed to the Treasury from the closure of the Bank of England’s Special Liquidity Scheme.
All the while in Europe, Germany continues to come under pressure from all sides to ease up on its insistence on budgetary responsibility. The new French President Francois Hollande appears to be the main cheerleader for the revisiting of a number of previous taboos including the thorny subject of Eurobonds, as well as unlimited bond buying by the ECB.
He is unlikely to get very far on either issue given German opposition to them but it won’t stop him from trying. Germany is not alone in its reluctance to consider these options, as Finland, Austria or the Netherlands are not that keen on them either. The more immediate issue remains the health of the European banking system with the IIF suggesting that Spanish banking losses could well hit €260bn, if the same loan loss rate ratio as applied to the Irish property bubble is used in a worst case scenario. EU leaders really need to be more worried about this particular problem than pressuring Germany to write a blank cheque, given the slow leakage of bank deposits from Greek banks and vulnerable Spanish and Italian banks in the past few weeks.
EURUSD – so far we’ve seen the move to the resistance at 1.2820. Looking at the price action it would appear we could be set for further gains towards 1.2950/60 on a sustained break above yesterday’s highs. The key support level remains around the 1.2600 level; however it would seem we might have to wait for a push below it. Only a close below 1.2600 suggests we could see a move towards the 1.1880 2010 lows, put in after the first Greece bailout. The gap at 1.3085 remains the longer term cap, while only a move back above the gap at 1.3085 has the potential to stabilise in the short term and target a retest of 1.3200.
GBPUSD – the pullback in cable yesterday suggests we could well be gearing up for one of those famous cable short squeezes. With support remaining at the 1.5770 Fibonacci level we would need to get above 1.5850 first though which has capped the pound for the past two days. We could then see a rebound back towards the 55 day MA at 1.5980. A move below 1.5770 targets the 61.8% retracement level at 1.5645.
EURGBP – yesterday’s pullback has closed the gap from the beginning of the month at 0.8100. To squeeze higher the single currency now needs to close above the gap and risk a deeper move towards trend line resistance at 0.8220 from the February highs at 0.8505. Last week’s rather bullish weekly candle seems to suggest that we could well start to see some sterling weakness in the short term. While 0.8100 caps expect to find some support around 0.8050. The November lows of 0.7845 may have to wait awhile as we may see some consolidation first.
USDJPY – Friday’s lows at 79.00 have so far contained any further selling pressure while the larger support remains at the 200 day MA at 78.50, after last week’s failure at 80.50. Downside pressure remains the predominant theme here after two successive weekly closes back inside the cloud resistance at 80.40 and the risk remains for further declines towards 78.50 and the 200 day MA. The 80.42 cloud line should continue to act as a resistance level and for the dollar to stabilise we would need to see a close back above this key level.