M. Hewson: la BCE boccia il piano spagnolo per Bankia

Scritto il alle 11:35 da cmcmarkets

Forex Morning Comment a cura di Michael Hewson, senior market analyst di CMC Markets.

I problemi della Spagna per la situazione di Bankia si sono aggravati dopo il no della BCE alla proposta del governo spagnolo di conferire alla banca 19 miliardi di euro di bond governativi da scambiare poi per avere finanziamenti. Il governo deve quindi affidarsi alla disponibilità dei mercati per trovare le risorse per salvare le banche, e con i rendimenti dei bond già vicini al 6,5% per i decennali la situazione finanziaria dello stato peggiorerà. Il rialzo dei rendimenti dei bond spagnoli ha influito negativamente anche sui tassi dei titoli di stato italiani, e l’Italia oggi offre titoli quinquennali e decennali per 6 miliardi di euro.
Nel Regno Unito in agenda i dati sulla massa monetaria M4 di aprile, sulle concessioni di mutui e i crediti al consumo. EuroDollaro: la resistenza a 1,2620/30 deve tenere per evitare una breve corsa verso i massimi della scorsa settimana a 1,2820/30. Possibile qualche supporto intorno a 1,2150. EuroSterlina: la sterlina ha difficoltà a salire rispetto ad un dollaro in ascesa e potremmo vedere ulteriore debolezza verso 1,5530 ed eventualmente verso 1,5230. DollaroYen: supporto appena sopra 79,00, ma la pressione ribassista resta dominante. Solo una chiusura sopra 80,42 indica una stabilizzazione del dollaro.

Spain rebuffed by ECB as bailout fears loom


Spain’s problems with its banks just got quite a lot bigger last night as the European Central Bank torpedoed any hope that they would accept any sort of round robin financing by way of allowing the Spanish government to inject €19bn of its own bonds into the bank, and then have the bank swap them for cash.

The ECB’s reasoning was that doing that would be tantamount to monetary financing of governments, which seems rather strange reasoning given the ECB had already been doing that indirectly in any case with its SMP program. This more or less leaves it at the mercy of the markets as it tries to raise the money it needs to help its banks and its indebted regions.
ith bond yields already nearing unsustainable levels of 6.5% on the 10 year measure, raising the sort of money required will put its public finances, which are already border line, in an even worse state. Spain can either use its bank restructuring fund (FROB) which does have some available funds or try the treasury route, which at current rates will be extremely expensive.

The Spanish government continues to push for the ECB to become a lender of last resort; its argument being that they have implemented all reforms they have been asked and as a result should be treated as a special case apart from Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

The ECB appears in no mood to budge on this and while Spanish government officials don’t appear to be bluffing about resisting a bailout and forcing a change of heart, the worry is that neither is the ECB or the EU. Rising yields on Spanish bonds are also having a rather unpleasant slip stream effect on Italian bond yields as well, which is not good news for Italy with a 5 and 10 year bond auction of about €6bn due today, where yields could well rise once more.

In the UK today we get the latest M4 money supply figures for April as well as the latest mortgage approvals and consumer credit data for April. Given that last week we saw one of the worst retail sales numbers in quite some time the figures aren’t expected to paint a pretty picture. Expectations for mortgage approvals are expected to be unchanged from the March figure at around 50k, but consumer credit is expected to halve from £0.4bn to £0.2bn, reflecting the weak economic environment last month. M4 money supply showed a 5% decline year on year last month and markets will be looking very closely at April’s numbers given next weeks Bank of England rate meeting. A similarly weak number will raise expectations for further QE at that meeting.

Despite last week’s revised GDP numbers and poor retail sales there remains the likelihood that the MPC will refrain from further QE until we get to see how events in Europe play out. Given recent comments from policymakers about the stickiness of inflation, as well as the uncertainty in Europe, the bank may well feel it prudent to hold fire, given that the potential for further shocks remains very high indeed.

EURUSD – the euro continues to track lower breaking below the 1.2500 level for the first time since July 2010 after failing to get back above the 1.2600 level yesterday. The key resistance remains at the 1.2620/30 level put in on Monday. This resistance needs to hold to prevent a short squeeze towards last week’s highs at 1.2820/30. The 2010 post first Greek bailout lows at 1.1880, remain the primary objective and it remains highly likely we will see them, though we might find some support around the June 2010 lows at 1.2150.

GBPUSD – the pound continues to find it difficult to rally against the resurgent dollar finally slipping below the 1.5645 support level, before rebounding from 1.5610. It now looks certain that we could well see further weakness towards 1.5530, and eventually a return towards this years low at 1.5230. Pull backs should now find resistance around the 1.5670 area, then behind that at this week’s high at the 1.5730 area with larger resistance at the 1.5770 50% Fibonacci level of the same move. The larger resistance remains at the 1.5840/50 level which proved to be such a strong barrier last week.

EURGBP – the range trade between resistance around 0.8040 and support around 0.7980 continues, however the key support level remains at the 0.7950 lows of this month. Downside pressure remains the predominant theme while below the 0.8100 resistance level that has contained all attempts to rally so far. It would appear that the rather bullish weekly candle seen two weeks ago could well have been a bit premature, but the lack of any follow through selling towards 0.7950 warrants some caution. If we break below the lows at 0.7950 then all bets are off for a move towards 0.7845 and the November 2008 lows.

USDJPY – the US dollar continues to find support just above the 79.00 level but downside pressure remains the predominant theme here, despite remaining above the 200 day MA at 78.60. While below the cloud resistance at 80.40 the risk remains for further declines towards 78.50 and the 200 day MA. Only a close above the 80.42 cloud line would suggest a stabilisation in the dollar.


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