Forex Morning Comments: la Spagna sempre sotto i riflettori
Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson ( Senior Market Analyst) e Ric Spooner (Chief Market Strategist) di CMC Markets.
La nuova impennata dei rendimenti sui titoli di Stato spagnoli che ieri hanno sfiorato il 7,3% sulla scadenza decennale e che oggi potrebbero arrivare al 4% sui Bonos a 12 e 18 mesi riporta Madrid al centro delle speculazioni con un aumento delle probabilità che lo Stato iberico sia vicino alla richiesta di aiuti internazionali.
Poichè il comunicato di ieri proveniente dal G20 non è riuscito a rasserenare gil animi, in molti ormai si attendono una mossa imminente da parte della Bce in grado di calmierare lo spread. Potrebbe incentivare all’azione la Germania il crollo dell’indicatore di fiducia delle imprese tedesche Zew, atteso oggi in forte calo.
In Gran Bretagna un contenimento del dato annuale dell’inflazione sotto il 3% aumenterebbe le possibilità che la BoE possa annunciare ulteriori misure di allentamento quantitativo nel prossimo meeting di luglio.
Le vendite registrate questa mattina sul cross Eurodollaro mirano a riportare il cambio a $1,2600 e a 1,2545 poi: il trend rimane comunque ribassista con un obiettivo di breve a 1,2290. Il cable (Sterlina-Dollaro) indietreggia in un movimento che potrebbe riportarlo a 1,5470; niente di nuovo sul cambio DollaroYen, dove le attese per un QE da parte della Fed limitano i possibili rialzi del biglietto verde:80,40 al rialzo e 77,90 al ribasso sono i due livelli chiave da monitorare.
Sui mercati asiatici, il trading ha risentito del mood negativo proveniente dalla penisola iberica, che ha controbilanciato l’effervescenza rilasciata post elezioni greche: il rialzo dei costi del debito è infatti in grado di annullare qualsiasi soluzione temporanea alla crisi dell’euro che potrebbe essere annunciata al G20 o al prossimo Eu summit.
In pochi infatti si aspettano che possa scaturire un antidoto definitivo come, ad esempio, la mutualizzazione del debito da parte delle nazioni ricche e , benchè, vi sia comunque ancora spazio per iniziative temporeggianti e mirate al rafforzamento dei firewall anticontagio, gli investitori rimangono consapevoli che i rendimenti in ascesa lavorano nella direzione opposta a quella di un mercato buy, limitandone fortemente le operazioni Long prima dei prossimi Eurosummit.
Spain remains in crosshairs as it looks to sell T-bills
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Senior Market Analyst Michael Hewson)
Yesterday’s surge in Spanish bond yields once again puts Europe’s fourth largest economy squarely in the cross hairs as the probable next candidate for a bailout. Last week’s banking bailout could well be followed soon after by a bailout for the sovereign after 10 year bond yields hit another post euro high of 7.285%, and closed above the 7% level as well. Spain is likely to find it more expensive to fund its borrowings across the yield curve as it looks to sell €2bn-€3bn of 12 and 18 month T-bills this morning. Indicative yields on both were trading around the 4% mark yesterday, a ruinously expensive rate for such short term paper.
Fears about growing bad debts and deposit outflows from Spanish banks have proved a toxic combination as European leaders dither on what the next steps in the crisis should be.
If yesterday’s draft communiqué from the summit of G20 leaders in Mexico was intended to instil confidence it failed to do as the markets clearly weren’t listening.
The communiqué stated that Europe would strive to take “all necessary measures” to hold the Eurozone together and break the “feedback loop” between sovereign states and banks. Given yesterday’s blow out in yields pressure is growing once more on the ECB to act and force yields back down.
On a positive note Brazil’s finance minister Mantega said the BRIC nations would be increasing their contributions to the IMF firewall, however there are likely to be strings attached, greater influence in decision making being one. On the economic front the chill winds of the economic slowdown in the European economy are likely to start permeating into German economic data and the June German ZEW survey of economic sentiment which is expected to slip sharply from 10.8 in May to 2.5.
In the UK the latest inflation numbers for May are due to be released this morning and policymakers will be hoping that the numbers come in well below market expectations given the slide back in manufacturing and construction data seen in recent data releases. Given that oil prices in sterling terms have dropped nearly 20% since February the hope is that these falls will be reflected in the inflation numbers as well. A year on year CPI print below the expected 3% is likely to raise expectations of further QE from the Bank of England at the next meeting in July, especially given the Bank of England governor’s comments last week, when he and the Chancellor unveiled the new credit easing measures. On a month on month basis prices are expected to rise 0.1%, down from the 0.6% rise in April.
EURUSD – the brief spike up to 1.2770 in Asia on Monday soon gave way to a move back below last week’s highs at 1.2620/30 to reopen a move back below 1.2600. If this move lower breaks below trend line support from the 1.2290 lows at 1.2545 we could well see a further move towards the next support at 1.2430/40. Though the focus continues to remain towards the downside and for a retest of the lows this year at 1.2290, on a break below 1.2430, we need to be open to the possibility that the above mentioned trend line at 1.2545 could provoke some short covering. The primary objective still remains the 2010 post first Greek bailout lows at 1.1880, but we could see a bit of a short squeeze first.
GBPUSD – yesterday’s failure at the 200 day MA resistance at 1.5755 precipitated the pound slipping back though it remained above last week’s breakout area at 1.5620. A slide back below 1.5620 could well see the pound slide back towards the 1.5470/80 area.
Only a break above 1.5755, the 200 day MA and through 1.5780 targets 1.5910 which would be the 61.8% retracement of the same move. Support now lies at the 1.5610/20 area. The key support remains between 1.5230 and 1.5260 and lows for the last nine months which if broken could well see a sell-off on a break of this level towards 1.4950.
EURGBP – the single currency continues to find the weight of the 55 day MA pressing down on it after yesterday’s failure at the 0.8100 level. The key resistance remains at this month’s highs at 0.8150 and is the main obstacle to a move towards 0.8200, the trend line resistance from the 0.8830 highs last November. On the downside there is trend line support from the recent lows at 0.7950, just below the 0.8000 level which could limit the downside here. If we break below the recent lows at 0.7950 then we could well be set for the move towards 0.7845 and the November 2008 lows.
USDJPY – not much to add here as the key levels continue to lie either side of the cloud extremities at 80.40 on the upside and 77.90 on the downside. Continued speculation about further Fed QE this week will continue to weigh on the US dollar. The US dollar continues to hold above the 200 day MA for now which remains a positive sign, but a close back below shifts the focus to a much more negative stance. Only a weekly close above the 80.42 cloud resistance line would suggest a stabilisation in the dollar towards 82.00.
Trading Subdued After Weak Opening
(Comments below have been provided by CMC Markets Chief Market Analyst Ric Spooner)
Trading on the Australian market is likely to be subdued today after a weaker opening The extent of positive investor reaction to the Greek election result has been limited by rising Spanish bond yields. Rising debt costs are working to counteract any temporary solutions to the Euro crisis that might be announced at the G20 meeting or next week’s Euro leaders’summit.
Few investors are expecting announcement of a permanent solution to the Euro crisis at next week’s meeting. This would have to involve a genuine mutualisation of debt obligations under which the richer exporting nations assume a significant amount of peripheral nation credit risk and take on the higher interest costs that this would iinvolve.
However, there is clearly potential for initiatives designed to buy more time and increase potential firewalls at the G20 or Euro leaders’ summit. The difficulty for investors is that rising bond yields are working in the opposite direction. More expensive Spanish debt costs potentially bring forward the time when the government will need to seek help and draw down firewall buffers to meet ongoing commitments. This is limiting share market buying in advance of the G20 and Euro Leaders’ summit.
The RBA minutes are unlikely to influence the market much this afternoon. The strong GDP and unemployment statistics released after the last RBA meeting are likely to have taken further rate cuts off the agenda in the near term unless there is a sharp deterioration in Europe.