Forex Morning Comments: operatori in attesa degli effetti degli stimoli
Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst) e Tim Waterer (Senior Trader) di CMC Markets
Nella settimana entrante i trader sembrano privi di ragione per procedere ad ulteriori acquisti degli asset più rischiosi almeno fintantochè non giunga qualche segnale positivo circa il fatto che gli stimoli delle banche centrali non inizino a dare i loro frutti. Nel caso dell’Europa in particolare gli investitori sembrano riluttanti ad aprire nuove posizioni finchè non vengano chiarite le decisioni che prenderà la Spagna circa una richiesta o meno degli aiuti ESM.
Il mercato oggi sta dimostrando di avere bisogno di risposte più convincenti delle semplici indiscrezioni che vedrebbero già in negoziazione funzionari Ue con il governo di Madrid con la possibilità di ascoltare un annuncio a tal proposito già questa settimana. A dare ulteriori picconate ai recenti massimi contribuiscono le notizie di disaccordo tra Francia e Germania circa la velocità di integrazione dei sistemi bancari europei, mentre sta prendendo sempre più piede la voce che vedrebbe il report della troika sui progressi compiuti dalla Grecia differito addirittura dopo le elezioni americane per evitare un poteziale shock all’economia mondiale e di pregiudicare le possibilità di rielezione di Barack Obama.
Sul mercato valutario l’Eurodollaro deve ancorarsi sopra 1,2830 per mantenere il trend rialzista poichè un superamento al ribasso riporterebbe la moneta unica a 1,2650 mentre il target al rialzo rimane 1,3220. Nonostante abbia messo a segno i massimi dell’anno il cross Sterlina-DollaroUsa mantiene intatte le possibilità di ritracciamento almeno finchè non supera 1,6305. Fintantochè il Dollaro rimane su quota 78 nel cambio con lo Yen il rally non potrà che essere debole e di breve durata suggerendo anzi più probabilmente un ritorno a 77,25.
European discord weighs ahead of German IFO
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
Markets look set to open the week lower this morning, as once again over the weekend, we have had the usual news flow about disagreements between EU leaders with Germany and France unable to agree over the speed of progress on banking union. France has also broken ranks and urged that Greece be given more time as the beleaguered country strives to come to an agreement on about €13bn of new austerity measures.
This remains a contentious call especially with Germany and Finland who insist that Greece must stand by its commitments. In Greece the country is set to be hit by a wave of strikes this week from workers protesting at the latest in a new wave of cuts, as the government awaits the next visit of the troika, after their departure a couple of days ago. As yet there remains no detail on how big a budget gap Greece is trying to fill with speculation in some circles that the troika report could well be delayed again, this time until after the US elections in order to avoid a potential shock to the global economy, as well attempt to smooth an Obama re-election.
There is also renewed talk about a recycled story that the new ESM would be leveraged up to €2trn, not exactly a new idea, given that the EFSF was also the subject of similar speculation when it was first launched a year ago, however Finland amongst others has apparently objected to this course of action. With disagreements between European leaders nothing new, and part of the normal weekend news flow, economic data also remains problematic, especially the dramatic deterioration in French data last week, though there have been silver linings with last week’s slight improvement in German ZEW expectations. This shouldn’t really have been too much of a surprise given the ratification of the ESM by the German constitutional court a couple of weeks ago, which helped fuel this month’s recovery in the euro back above 1.3000.
Another test of sentiment will be today’s German IFO Business climate and expectations survey for September which is expected to show minor improvements to 102.5 and 95 from 102.3 and 94.2 respectively Talk at the end of last week that EU officials were in secret talks with Spanish officials about some form of reform package, as well as a rescue package for Spain, helped give Spanish markets a late push on Friday, with speculation that some form of package could well be announced later this week.
Later this week we also get the final report into the solvency of the Spanish banking system, with varying estimates that Spanish banks could well require up to €70bn to recapitalise their banks. Given that recent data from the Bank of Spain stated that 9.86% of all Spanish loans are currently nonperforming, about €170bn worth, this suggested amount barely seems credible, given that unemployment is still rising, the economy is contracting and new austerity measures have yet to bite.
EURUSD – the rebound from Thursday’s low stalled at 1.3050 last week before slipping back. We need to hold above the 200 day MA at 1.2830 for the recent rebound in the euro to be sustained. It needs a push below 1.2830 to retarget the 1.2650 level with key trend line support from the 1.2045 lows now at 1.2600. The key resistance on the upside remains at 1.3220, trend line resistance from the 1.4940 highs of 2011. A move above 1.3240, targets 1.3495, the 50% retracement of the entire down move from 1.4940 to 1.2045.
GBPUSD – even though we saw a test of 1.6300 and a new high for the year, the failure to take out 1.6305 just about keeps the downside risk intact. The risk remains for a move back towards 1.6050 despite the resilience and yesterday’s rebound from 1.6165. Below 1.6050 we have trend line support at 1.6000 from the August lows at 1.5490.It needs a move above resistance at 1.6305 to target a move towards 1.6590, last years August high. Only a break below 1.5860 has the potential to target 28th August lows at 1.5755. The long term trend line support lies at 1.5620 from the 1.5240 lows.
EURGBP – the 0.7950/60 is a key support level for the euro, given it was strong resistance in August and is the main obstacle to a return towards the 0.7880 level. To restore upward momentum we need to see a bounce back through the 0.8050 area to retarget the highs two weeks ago. This area acted as strong resistance through August.
USDJPY – a bit of an up and down week last week, but while the US dollar has thus
far been able to hold above the 78.00, rallies remain weak, suggesting a return
to the lows earlier this month at 77.25. To stabilise in any meaningful way we
need to take out trend line resistance at 79.15 from the 20 April highs at 81.80, as
well as the 200 day MA at 79.30. The 200 day MA at 79.31 remains the main obstacle
to a return towards the highs last month at 79.70
Upward Market Momentum Stalls
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
Upward momentum in the markets appear to have stalled with the hype regarding the latest central bank stimulus measures not having the same longevity as in days gone by. In the case of Europe, investors seem reluctant to take on board new positions until some clarity is attained over the Spanish bail-out situation, and specifically the question of will they ask for one or won’t they. Reports that Spanish and EU officials are working behind closed doors should be seen as something of a positive development but it seems the markets need more convincing before pushing risk assets higher.
Commodity prices were slammed at the start of Asian trading hours Monday and this seemed to set the tone for broader market performance. The gold price in particular was walloped as it slumped over US$10 to fall below US $1760 per ounce, with the silver and oil prices also coming under selling pressure. Thin market conditions appear to have triggered some stops on the low side which caused the slide.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) followed the commodity price slide by dipping to its session lows before bouncing back one-third of a cent. The AUD could be in for a tough week with the situation in Europe still taking on a very muddied appearance and the upward march in equities appearing to have come to a standstill. Economic data is light on the local front this week and a continuation of the soft data abroad will have traders pricing in a greater likelihood of an RBA rate cut later in the year in reaction to the global outlook.
A fairly inglorious performance from our mining stocks courtesy of declining commodity prices weighed heavily on the broader index to start the week. The ASX200 fell to the south side of the 4400 level with traders clearly struggling for reason to buy with the momentum gained from recent central bank stimulus seeming to have dissipated.
How commodity prices react to international economic data for the rest of the week could be instrumental in shaping Australian market direction given the concentration of material stocks in the local index. Overall, traders appear to be devoid of reasons to buy higher yielding assets at this stage of proceeding until some evidence is forthcoming that recent stimulus efforts will start to bear fruit.