M. Hewson: riflettori puntati sul budget spagnolo
Forex Morning Comments a cura di Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst) e Ben Taylor (Sales Trader) di CMC Markets
Dopo aver messo a segno un ritracciamento necessario a seguito degli enormi stimoli di politica monetaria da parte delle banche centrali, i mercati sono pronti ora per registrare nuovi rialzi. L’iniezione di liquidità per 180 miliardi di yuan da parte della Banca Popolare della Cina ha contribuito a rifondere gli investitori di fiducia dopo che nelle ultime ore l’attenzione si era spostata sui tumulti in corso in Spagna che oggi voterà una finanziaria che – per quanto austera – potrebbe comunque non essere in grado di centrare gli obiettivi di riduzione del deficit previsti per questo e il prossimo anno.
Domani verranno pubblicati anche gli stress test bancari condotti dalla società Oliver Wyman e si conoscerà l’effettivo fabbisogno del sistema finanziario iberico. Nella sua sfida contro il tempo per la rihiesta di aiuti alla Ue, il premier Rajoy non ha tenuto in considerazione che potrebbero essere proprio i mercati finanziari a forzargli la mano a breve , specie dopo le sue incaute dichiarazioni al Wall Street Journal in base alle quali ha confermato che chiederà un sostegno solo qualora i tassi dovessero rimanere alti per un periodo eccessivo. Oltretutto, il nuovo ampliamento degli spread visto nelle ultime ore è proprio l’ultima cosa di cui ha bisogno il Tesoro italiano che questa mattina ha in programma un’asta di titoli a dieci anni.
Oggi gli ultimi dati sulla disoccupazione tedesca potrebbero inoltre mostrare una crepa nella resilienza della Germania alla crisi con previsioni di aumento di 10.000 senza lavoro nel mese di settembre, mentre le revisioni finali del PIl del secondo trimestre di Uk e Usa dovrebbero mantenere le stime invariate (-0,5% e 1,7% rispettivamente). Sul mercato valutario l’Eurodollaro rimane sopra la media mobile a 200 giorni (1,2830) sotto la quale potrebbe ritracciare fino a 1,2650 o rimbalzare fino a 1,3175. Il cable continua a trattare nel range compreso tra 1,6140 e 1,6300 con il rischio di un ritorno a 1,6050. Trend in calo anche per il cambio Eurosterlina chiamato al test di 0,7880 mentre l’incapacità di superare quota 78,00 mantiene la pressione per un ritorno a 77,25 del DollaroYen.
Anxious markets await Spanish budget
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
After the events of the last 24 hours, where Spanish police fired rubber bullets and used batons on austerity protestors, Spain’s politicians need to draw the sting from further political unrest today while at the same time satisfying the EU that any new budget agreed for 2013 is credible.
As things stand Spain looks set to miss its revised target for its 2012 budget of 6.3%, and thus next year’s budget of 4.5% is likely to be just as difficult given that this year’s deficit to August is already above that now. The trick is they have to do this against a backdrop of rising bank loan losses, rising unemployment, a contracting economy and capital flight from Spanish banks.
With 10 year bond yields back above 6% the temptation is there to say, “Good luck with that”. Mr Rajoy is no doubt playing for time with respect to asking for an inevitable bailout but yesterday’s ill-advised comments to journalist’s about bond yields were pretty much an open invitation to markets to force his hand.
Even allowing for today’s budget we have the Wyman stress test banking report out on Friday and that could well be interesting reading, notwithstanding a possible Moody’s downgrade by the end of this week as well, and the disaffection of Catalonia. Today’s latest German unemployment numbers are likely to show an increase of 10k in September and raise concerns that Europe’s problems are starting to effect the so far resilient German economy. The rate is expected to stay unchanged at 6.8%.
The rise in Spanish yields yesterday was the last thing Italy wanted with a 10 year bond auction due this morning. Italian yields also edged higher yesterday on the unrest in Spain. Even so the yields are expected to be lower than the previous 5.82%, while investors will be hoping for a better bid to cover than the previous 1.4.
In the UK the final revision of Q2 GDP is due to be released today with expectations of no change to the previous -0.5%. there has been some speculation on the margins that we may get a slight upgrade to -0.4%, and though while that might be seen as a positive surprise it doesn’t disguise the fact that the UK economy continues to struggle, though Q3 is expected to be much improved.
In a day full of economic data the health of the US economy is also of interest with the final revision of US Q2 GDP expected to come in unchanged at 1.7%, and while we shouldn’t see too much in the way of surprises here the latest August durable goods orders are likely to be a good barometer of US consumer habits. It is important to look beyond the headline figure, which in July was distorted by aircraft orders, showing a gain of 4.2%.
When that was stripped out the figure was negative. Today’s number is expected to show a decline of 5%, which shows that despite rising consumer confidence there remains a reluctance to spend significant amounts of money on big ticket items. Weekly jobless claims are expected to slip back from 382k to 375k.
EURUSD – the single currency has so far managed to hold above the 200 day MA at 1.2830, rebounding from that level yesterday. It needs a push below 1.2830 to retarget the 1.2650 level with key trend line support from the 1.2045 lows now at 1.2635. Pullbacks have so far stalled at trend line resistance from the 1.3175 highs earlier this month, now at 1.2925 as the euro struggles to rally. The bigger resistance level remains from the 1.4940 highs at 1.3210. Only a move above 1.3240, targets 1.3495, the 50% retracement of the entire down move from 1.4940 to 1.2045.
GBPUSD – cable continues to trade in the range between support at 1.6140/50 and the larger resistance at 1.6300/10. The risk remains for a move back towards 1.6050 despite the pounds resilience; with a move below trend line support at 1.6040 from the August lows at 1.5490, targeting 1.5920. It needs a move above resistance at 1.6305 to target a move towards 1.6590, last years August high. Only a break below 1.5860 has the potential to target 28th August lows at 1.5755. The long term trend line support lies at 1.5630 from the 1.5240 lows.
EURGBP – the 0.7940 level appears to be finding some support after another two failed attempts yesterday. The momentum still argues for a test towards the 07880 level and trend line support from the 0.7755 lows at 0.7905. To restore upward momentum we need to see a bounce back through the 0.8050 area to retarget the highs two weeks ago.
USDJPY – the inability to rally back through 78.00 keeps the pressure on for a move towards the lows earlier this month at 77.25. To stabilise in any meaningful way we need to take out trend line resistance at 79.15 from the 20 April highs at 81.80, as well as the 200 day MA at 79.30. The 200 day MA at 79.31 remains the main obstacle to a return towards the highs last month at 79.70.
Market Ready For Next Leg Higher
By Ben Taylor (Sales Trader, CMC Markets)
Having experienced the pullback we had to have after the huge round of concerted central bank initiatives, the market now feels like it’s readying itself for the next leg higher.
China’s central bank liquidity injection has given our markets confidence as we wade into the murky waters of Spain’s budget and its banks stress tests.
There is a lot of nervousness built into tonight’s Spanish budget, and video footage of out of control riots are not helping to build confidence. I think the markets will push Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s hand into asking for a bailout. Confirmation that his office would seek a rescue if borrowing rates stay too high had the market selling Spanish bonds ensuring Rajoy will approach the ECB cap in hand in the not too distant future.
Falling commodity prices on the back of USD strength also looks to be a little overplayed for the moment. Today saw a re-emergence of Aussie dollar and Aussie market strength on the back of the Chinese injecting 180 billion Yuan Into the money market. The world’s central banks are not going to let our way of life go down without a fight. We now have massive back-stops in place. Policy responses are in operation or at the ready to combat any stubborn weakness that presents itself meaning that the usual larger pull back doesn’t look like it’s going to eventuate.