Market Commentary: lo schema “promesse basse e risultati sopra le aspettative” potrebbe funzionare ancora

Scritto il alle 10:23 da cmcmarkets

Le nuove stime al ribasso sulla crescita mondiale prodotte dal Fondo Monetario Internazionale (ispiratore di una linea di politica economica più moderata nel chiedere tagli draconiani ad economie moribonde) hanno raschiato un po’ la fiducia degli investitori che ha ri-direzionato inevitabilmente i capitali verso il Dollaro Usa mentre le alternative al biglietto verde come l’oro hanno perso del terreno.
Pur tuttavia, di fronte ad attese al ribasso sulle trimestrali americane, il sentiment potrebbe nuovamente modificarsi seguendo il classico schema “promesse basse e risultati sopra le aspettative” con possibili guadagni nelle prossime settimane: dopo tutto, infatti, l’asticella sugli utili della Corporate America non è posta così in alto e, considerando che al momento i trader hanno difficoltà a reperire buone notizie sul mercato, qualsiasi risultato decente potrebbe essere incoraggiato con acquisti.
Oltre a ciò, la direzione del cash flow suggerisce che una buona fetta di investitori non crede che le trimestrali possano essere così brutte come sono state dipinte.  Momento di grazia per il petrolio con il Crude che, superando i 91,50 dollari al barile, potrebbe ripartire di slancio. Supportato dalla buona performance del minerale di ferro, il Dollaro Australiano è balzato a 1,02 e potrebbe superare 1,03 nel breve solo qualora uscisse un dato sull’occupazione migliore delle previsioni domani.  




Outlook for Europe: Energy stocks best performers in the Asian session

By David Land (Head of Analysis, CMC Markets)

The IMF appears to be delivering a dose of Keynesian thinking to the governments of Europe. For too long the pro and con arguments on austerity have dragged on being fought frequently on political instead of economic grounds. A more moderate line would be much more palatable when it comes to dealing with troubled economies. 

All alternatives are tough for governments trying to resurrect struggling economies but the warning from the IMF looks to be a shot of reality. We have seen some very strong actions from ECB President Mario Draghi, but the IMF I think underscores the support that is needed from all other participants to rescue Europe. Tightening in lending in Europe will only slow any recovery further so keeping the market liquid is critical.

Energy stocks were some of the best performers again in the Asian session. The crude oil price is at a short-term inflection level which will be key for the direction in which short term traders drive the market. This means that moves higher than $91.50 may attract more trader momentum. Even from quite early in the Asian session the energy stocks were amongst the more notable performers. I think the expectations of stronger oil prices are a clear driver but the life in the Chinese market has helped the wider market too in some cases.

China has been carrying the can for Asian equities in the last couple of days. We have been seeing sessions where the market has started very weak but has caught up ground as the Chinese indices move higher. I suspect that ongoing strength in this market may increase optimism in some areas of the commodity space. Iron ore has been on the up in recent sessions but is at a key technical level now.

Further moves higher may see life return to a number of the iron ore companies who have essentially been trading in lockstep with the price of iron ore in recent sessions.  Earnings reports in the US will be a dominant headline. Keep in mind that the market has been quite solid in the US this year. Despite quite negative expectations, the direction of cash flow suggests that some portions of the market don’t believe that reporting will be as bad as had been suggested in some circles.


IMF Report Takes Some Steam Away From Investor Confidence


By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)




The downgraded IMF growth forecasts served to take steam away from investment confidence in recent trading sessions, with traders again leery over what state financial markets will be in come 2013 and beyond. Glum trading conditions invariably lead to renewed investment flows into the US Dollar which has again been the case, while Greenback-alternatives such as Gold take a further step back as good news stories seem to have run dry. 

With there being a definite low key vibe ahead of US corporate earnings results, there could well be an ‘under-promise, over-deliver scenario’ play out which injects equity markets with another spell of confidence in coming weeks. After all, the bar on US Corporate Earnings is not exactly set sky-high. Traders are really having a difficult time detecting sources of market positivity right now, so any half decent results could well be latched onto.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has gone against the grain today by pushing higher through 1.02. Back to back jumps in the price of Iron Ore have supported the AUD, allowing the currency to hold an overnight low of 1.0175 despite the ‘risk-off’ session experienced across most asset classes. Upside on the AUDUSD rate will be likely capped well shy of 1.03 until traders see how Thursdays Australian employment data pans out, with the result likely to influence RBA rate decisions over coming months. The fate of the AUD’s current yield advantage may lie firmly in the hands of the health of the labour market.

The Australian sharemarket did quite a decent job of absorbing the negative lead provided by Wall Street to escape the day with just a modest move lower by the local index. Recent sharp rises in the price of Iron Ore stood the bellwether miners such as RIO and BHP in good stead, and this was able to have an offsetting affect to a degree on the negative sentiment stemming from the IMF downgrades which adversely affected the broader market. Given the 100+ point fall on the Dow Jones last night, for the ASX200 to still be within close proximity to the 4500 level is more than an acceptable result today.

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