D. Land: il mercato del lavoro statunitense sostiene i mercati
Si chiude una settimana in cui l’apparente corto circuito tra una Bce pronta ad acquistare bond dei Paesi in difficoltà e la Spagna che si rifiuta di chiedere il salvataggio agisce come nuovo impedimento per un ulteriore apprezzamento degli asset a rischio. Nonostante il dato sul lavoro americano sia risultato il migliore degli ultimi quattro anni, occorre ricordare che c’è moltissima volatilità sul mercato che si muove sempre più entro un range ben definito e laterale impedendo al momento la formazione di qualsivoglia tendenza direzionale: a dettare il tono delle prossime sedute contribuirà certamente in maniera importante il dato in uscita domani in Cina sulla bilancia commerciale.
Sul mercato valutario l’indebolimento del Dollaro nelle ultime 24 ore sulla scia dell’ottimismo suscitato dai sussidi di disoccupazione potrebbe non essere significativo di un trend in via di formazione a causa delle perplessità circa l’accuratezza della lettura del dato, mentre l’Euro ha assorbito piuttosto bene la notizia del downgrade della Spagna da parte di S&P, per quanto comunque “cappato” dall’incertezza relativa al timing della richiesta di aiuti.
Dollaro Australiano nuovamente a 1,04 nelle prossime sedute qualora venissero confermate le attese di dati cinesi migliori del previsto.Crediamo che il mercato in questo momento rimanga in attesa di notizie significative per poter ricominciare a muoversi in una direzione precisa.
US Jobs Continue Markets’Cheery Mood
By David Land (Head of Analysis, CMC Markets)
The US jobs data overnight certainly seems to be something of an anomaly but it seems to have continued the relatively cheery mood of the markets in the last 24 hours. It’s very much worth keeping in mind though that there is a lot of market choppiness at the moment with a number of the major currencies and commodities trading in a wide oscillation. Recent trading conditions have frustrated many in the market. Particularly after a time when there have been a lot of trend following opportunities these instruments are in something of a state of flux.
I have been impressed with the strength of the Chinese and Hong Kong markets over the course of the week. This has been a critical support for a number of the Asian equity and currency markets. Over the weekend we will see the trade balance figures released and this will be significant for the immediate outlook for the Chinese economy. At this stage there is fairly minimal expectation of further major stimulus programs being offered by Chinese authorities.
The USD has been moderately weakening in the last 24 hours but now seems stuck in the short term. Technically speaking the EUR is now oscillating around the 200 hour moving average. I think that the market is waiting for the next significant news to start things driving along again. Whilst there has been plenty of talk about the outlook for the US and Europe in recent days the overall moves of the market have been insignificant. Until price can break out of these recent trading ranges I wouldn’t be expecting significant momentum to develop.
Chinese Trade Balance Could Be Momentum Shifter
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
Upcoming Chinese Trade Balance data (due Saturday) will likely shape sentiment heading into next week for a market which is still searching for conviction. While the US Dollar retreated thanks in part to a four year low in the jobless claims data, there is an air of uncertainty about how accurate this reading was and as such traders soon curbed their enthusiasm.
The Euro absorbed the news of a Spanish downgrade quite well however the situation regarding a timeline for a potential bailout request remains quite blurred, which is acting as a ceiling on movements higher in the EURUSD rate. The apparent disconnect between having the ECB ready to purchase bonds and Spain not requesting a bailout is acting as an impediment to further rises in higher yielding assets.
The Aussie Dollar has continued to consolidate gains in the wake of Thursday’s employment data. Today was mostly about positioning ahead of the Chinese Trade Balance data tomorrow, which has kept the AUDUSD rate operating in a tight range just shy of the 1.03 level. Commodity price reaction early next week to the Chinese data will have a direct impact on the AUD’s attempts to push towards 1.04 in the short term.
It was a restrained performance by the ASX200 to close out the week, with Materials stocks the main ones to flourish courtesy of a push higher in commodity prices. A move lower by the US Dollar overnight in reaction to the Jobless Claims data allowed commodity prices to rise. This move higher in commodities suited the blue chip mining stocks which propped up the overall index and served to counteract weakness in other sectors of the local markets.
Ahead, we have US consumer sentiment data this evening. And of course, upcoming Chinese Trade Balance data on the weekend could dictate the path taken by the big mining stocks early next week.