Market Commentary: focus sulle elezioni statunitensi e sulle decisioni delle banche centrali
I mercati finanziari potrebbero riservare fuochi d’artificio questa settimana grazie a Wall Street che potrebbe applaudire (ma anche bocciare) il risultato delle elezioni presidenziali una volta che si saprà chi sarà l’inquilino della Casa Bianca a partire dal 2013. L’iniziale movimento rialzista seguito al dato positivo sul mercato del lavoro di venerdi infatti potrebbe essere di breve durata con la conseguenza che, fino a vincitore proclamato, il Dollaro Usa poss ancora svolgere in pieno il suo ruolo di bene difensivo, mentre riteniamo che gli asset che incorporano un premio maggiore potrebbero risultare vincenti nella seconda parte della settimana.
Sebbene le elezioni Usa rimangano indubbiamente il principale focus per i mercati almeno in questi primi giorni, altri driver potrebbero giungere dalle decisioni di questa settimana delle banche centrali sui tassi di riferimento delle rispettive economie (Uk, Ue, Australia). Mentre ci si attende che la RBA australiana possa tagliare il costo del denaro di 25 punti base portandolo al 3%, BoE e Bce dovrebbero rimanere ferme. Per quanto riguarda la BoE, dopo i dati sul Pil del terzo trimestre, non pare per nulla certo che prosegua sula strada di ulteriori acquisti quantitativi. In Europa il dato sulla disoccupazione spagnola è previsto in ulteriore aumento mentre in Grecia il governo si prepara a presentare il nuovo pacchetto di austerity in Parlamento con proteste per le strade.
Sul fronte valutario l’Eurodollaro è chiamato al test di 1,2800 per confermare il nuovo trend ribassista a seguito dell’accelerazione in senso negativo registrata venerdì, mentre al rialzo occorre superare 1,2900 affinchè si possa tornare a 1,3000. In ribasso anche la Sterlina contro il Dollaro Usa ora aperta al rischio di un ritorno a 1,5910 mentre dovrebbe oltrepassare 1,6080 per invertire il trend. Debolezza anche per l’Euro nei confronti della Sterlina con una possibile discesa a 0,7755. Al contrario si rafforza il biglietto verde: contro lo Yen la chiusura settimanale sopra 80 spiana la strada ad ulteriori guadagni con un’accelerazione possibile verso 81,80. Dollaro Australiano cappato a 1.03-1.04 almeno finchè non si quantificherà il vantaggio in termini di rendimento offerto dall’Aussie dopo la decisione sui tassi di domani.
UK Services PMI set to show expansion again
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
Despite a much better than expected US jobs number last Friday, market reaction while initially positive, failed to spark a sustained rally, eventually causing US markets to finish sharply lower, ahead of this week’s US presidential election, with the gap between the candidates still too close to call with voting set to go the wire.
Though the US presidential election remains the primary focus in the early part of this week, with the uncertainty likely to act as a drag on markets, we also have a number of important central bank rate decisions later this week including the latest Bank of England rate decision, as well as the latest ECB and Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decisions. While the RBA is expected to cut rates again by 25 basis points to 3%, early tomorrow morning no such rate action is expected from the ECB, or the Bank of England for that matter.
As far as the Bank of England is concerned there had been a widespread expectation, until the most recent Q3 growth numbers, that the MPC would increase its asset purchase program by an extra £50bn to £425bn at this week’s meeting. This is now by no means certain given recent comments by members like deputy governor Charlie Bean, as well as Governor Mervyn King himself, questioning the effectiveness of recent QE.
There has also been growing concern that the policy of QE could well be causing more harm than good especially with respect to rising pension deficits, which are forcing companies to put aside higher provisions, instead of increasing their capital investment in order to boost growth. Weekend comment in some quarters has added to the uncertainty over policy action this week, even though early indications do suggest that Q4 looks likely to be disappointing from an economic point of view.
Last week’s October manufacturing PMI data proved to be disappointing once again, and even though construction PMI improved after two months of contraction, there was some worrying weaknesses in those figures as well. Given that services makes up nearly two thirds of the UK economy, a good October services PMI number today could well give a significant steer on the likelihood of easing this week, irrespective of tomorrow’s manufacturing data for September. Expectations are for services PMI to come in at 52, down slightly from September.
It is also noteworthy that services PMI, despite the UK economy being in recession from Q4 last year, have shown expansion in every month this year, and last contracted in January 2011. In Europe the latest Spanish unemployment numbers for October are expected to show an increase of 90k, up from a rise of 79.3k the previous month, while in Greece the government will present its latest austerity package to parliament for debate at the same time as unions start a series of 48 hour strikes in protest at the new measures.
EURUSD – Friday’s sharp fall saw the euro fall through a number of support levels but just about close above the 200 day MA, falling just shy of its October lows at 1.2805. Could it be the golden cross has been a euro bull trap? To reiterate we need to see a move below 1.2800 to retarget the 1.2650 level and the 100 day MA. A recovery above 1.2900 is needed to stabilise and target last week’s high at 1.3000.
GBPUSD – Thursday’s gravestone Doji certainly provided an early warning of Friday’s sharp decline with a sharp decline through 1.6050 and opens the risk for a move towards 1.5910 and 38.2% retracement of the 1.5270/1.6310 up move. Below that we also have the 200 day MA at 1.5845, a break of which could well target further rapid declines. The pound needs to get above 1.6080 to open up a move back towards last week’s high at 1.6180.
EURGBP – despite a brief dip below the 0.8000 level the 55 day MA just about held, however the risks remain lower and for a test of trend line support at 0.7985 trend line support from the 0.7755 lows. A break below this support targets 0.7955 50% retracement of the up move from 0.7755 lows to the 0.8165 highs. A recovery above 0.8030 is needed to retarget last week’s high at 0.8075.
USDJPY – last week’s close above 80.00 opens up the potential for further gains given the weekly close inside the cloud. Pullbacks should find support at 79.75, the cloud base with the potential to move towards 81.80 at the top of the cloud initially. Below 79.75 retargets 79.20.
US Election Result Could Provide Finanzial Market Fireworks
By Tim Waterer, Senior Trader
Financial markets could be in store for fireworks this week with Wall Street likely to give an emphatic ‘thumbs up’ or ‘thumbs down’ reaction to the election result once the occupant of the White House in 2013 is known. The initial boost from equities after the Non-farm result on Friday could not be sustained as trading attention turned to the potential election impact of the numbers. I would expect that until the election outcome is known there will be a decent amount of Greenback buying as a safety play.
With a fresh dose of US Dollar buying occurring from cautious investors amid the uncertainty of the election outcome, break-out moves to the upside for higher yielding assets may be on hold until later in the week when the US political future has more clarity.
The AUD made a moderate shift higher today on the improved retail sales data which lifted the currency back above 1.0350. The AUDUSD rate declined amid the sell off on Wall Street on Friday in the aftermath of the jobs data. The steep falls in the prices of gold and oil recently have stifled the commodity-linked AUD’s attempts to make a sustained run through the 1.04 level. With the rate decision on Cup day looking a 50/50 bet, the AUDUSD rate will likely not venture far outside the 1.03-1.04 range until we see how the AUD’s current yield advantage shapes up going after Tuesday afternoons announcement.
Australian equities had a case of the ‘blues’ in the early going today with our index initially following the weak lead from Wall Street. However the release of forecastbeating Retail Sales data lifted the early gloom and saw the ASX200 move into positive territory. With the US election occurring on Wednesday Australian time, and with local employment figures and a raft of Chinese data due on Friday, any moves of conviction on the local bourse will likely be reserved for the second half of the week.