Market Commentary: l’eurodollaro verso 1,2920
La settimana borsistica potrebbe chiudersi positivamente sulla base di nuovi stimoli d’acquisto degli investitori che sembrerebbero avere voglia di mantenere il più a lungo possibile l’intonazione positiva e di archiviare presto la seduta. Nonostante i volumi sottili dovuti alla chiusura per festività degli Usa, la giornata odierna potrebbe infatti rivelarsi utile per un consolidamento dei livelli, in attesa di svoltare nella prossima ottava con le incognite tuttora aperte e riguardanti il nodo della Grecia e del Fiscal Cliff.
Con la volatilità dietro l’angolo, è facile immaginare che, qualora si trovasse un accordo sull’erogazione del nuovo pacchetto di aiuti alla Grecia e si chiudesse il gap tra Repubblicani e Democratici sulle intenzioni fiscali, i mercati troverebbero ragioni più che fondate per tornare a comperare a mani basse gli asset più rischiosi; viceversa, ci troveremmo nuovamente a dover fronteggiare nuove vendite.
Oggi seduta chiave anche per testare i prossimi livelli dell’Eurodollaro, vicinissimo a 1,2920 (che rappresenta un’area importante per testare le possibilità rialziste della moneta unica) ; rafforzamento dell’Euro anche nei confronti della Sterlina con la possibilità di ritornare a 0,8115. Dollaro Yen ancora in marcia verso quota 84,00; anche il Dollaro Australiano potrebbe trascorrere la prossima settimana al di sopra di 1,04 nei confronti del Dollaro Usa.
German IFO expected to decline again
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
Yesterday’s European PMI data from the manufacturing sector may have ticked up slightly, but it also pointed to further weakness in the services sector, pointing to an even deeper contraction in Q4, across the whole of Europe, as the aggregated measure fell to its lowest level since 2009.
While EU leader’s debate and argue over a new budget plan for 2014 to 2020, which is likely to take some time and probably spill over into next year, the economic data across Europe continues to disappoint and markets are likely to focus their attention in particular on the latest German November IFO business climate survey which is expected to decline for the seventh month in a row from 100 to 99.60, and to its lowest level in nearly three years. The final adjustment to German Q3 GDP revisions aren’t expected to elicit too much of a market reaction given that they are expected to come in in line with the previous numbers at 0.2% for the quarter.
Elsewhere in Europe, Cyprus announced that it is very close to signing a bailout deal, which could total up to €17bn, the size of its entire economic output, as the small island becomes the latest to need financial aid, due to its banks’ exposure to Greece. A few “i’s” need to be dotted and “t’s” crossed by the troika before approval is given. With most of the US still off for the Thanksgiving break, trading in US markets is likely to be thin in a holiday shortened trading day.
EURUSD – the euro has come into touching distance of the 50 day MA and 1.2920 area where we should see some resistance. The 1.2900 level is also 50% retracement of the 1.3140/1.2660 down move. The current rebound needs to overcome the 1.2920 level to stabilise and target 1.3000. Trend line support from the 1.2050 lows now comes in at 1.2720.
GBPUSD – despite running up to 1.5980 yesterday we slipped back to 1.5920, but upside potential remains intact for a move towards 1.6050, while above yesterday’s low. To push conclusively lower we would need to see a move towards and break below 1.5800 trend line support from the 1.5270 lows as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP – yesterday we broke above the 200 day MA at 0.8080 for the first time since 23rd October potentially opening up a move to 0.8115 and possibly 0.8165 the October highs. On the downside trend line support comes in at 0.7989 from the July lows at 0.7755.
USDJPY – we got to 82.85 yesterday before slipping back. The US dollar remains on track for the March highs above 84.00, while above the 81.80 area, which was the key breakout level.The break above the weekly cloud for the first time since April looks like the catalyst for further strong gains. Only below the 80.60 level suggests a move back towards the November lows at 79.00.
Australian Market In Drift Mode
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
With the latest Chinese PMI data having made for pleasant reading, most higher yielding assets were able to maintain some buying impetus despite the US holiday depriving the market of some liquidity. Most markets across Asia pushed higher on Friday, remaining boosted by signs that the contraction period endured by Chinese Manufacturers may be at an end.
Elsewhere, the Australian Dollar has been wearing a path in the 1.0370-1.0390 range in the past day. The solid Chinese PMI data kept the currency well supported however there was not enough buying momentum to make a sustained push through 1.04. Given that the AUD has been able to shrug off some dovish comments from the RBA earlier in the week, the currency could be looking at spending good time next week trading above 1.04.
If we have the obstacle of the next aid package for Greece cleared, and a continued closing of the gap between Republicans and Democrats on the Fiscal Cliff discussion, the desire of traders to seek higher yield will increase. But of course if the opposite happens and traders again lean heavily toward risk aversion then support at 1.03 for the AUD could again come into play.
With US investors switching from trading to turkey, the Australian market was in ‘drift’ mode much of Friday given the absence of any fresh leads from Wall Street. Local sharemarket activity took on a rudderless appearance in the wake of the US Thanksgiving Holiday, with the ASX200 unable to build upon the 1% gain from Thursday with no new developments abroad.
On the one hand the US holiday may have stalled some momentum, however another school of thought would suggest that it allowed a consolidation of the rebound performance this week. In any event, stocks seemed content to just saunter into the weekend, with traders knowing that more volatility could be just around the corner. A decision on Greek aid could be delivered early next week which will catch the interest of traders. And of course there is that other ‘little’ matter of the Fiscal Cliff which remains to be resolved.