Market Commentary: il fiscal cliff riporta gli acquisti sul dollaro
Il sollievo del mercato successivo all’accordo sulla Grecia è durato lo spazio di cinque minuti prima che l’attenzione degli investitori ritornasse alla questione tuttora irrisolta del Fiscal Cliff. La mancanza di sviluppi su questo fronte ha calmierato l’entusiasmo degli scorsi giorni mettendo per il momento la sordina al rally degli asset a rischio. Il risultato è che i flussi di acquisto sono tornati sul Dollaro Usa a detrimento di oro, petrolio sul fronte delle materie prime, mentre sul mercato valutario abbiamo assistito ad uno stop nel rally dell’Euro che è ritornato a 1,2920, livello dal quale potremmo vedere un nuovo passaggio verso 1,2800. A rischio di un ritorno verso area 1,5970 anche per il cross Sterlina Dollaro Usa mentre l’Euro potrebbe scivolare verso 0,8020 nel cross con la Sterlina. Sul cambio DollaroYen lo scenario rimane rialzista con obiettivo a 84,00. Il quadro si mostra comunque altamente volatile per cui, al minimo segnale di progresso da parte dei politici Usa in direzione di un accordo sul Fiscal Cliff il mercato potrebbe riprendere quota e tornare sui suoi passi.
Doubts remain about Greece debt deal
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
As time has elapsed and markets have had time to digest the latest Greek debt deal, the lack of enthusiasm among market participants remains palpable. This is probably down to the fact that details about the debt buyback remain sketchy at best and the IMF has stated its participation remains dependant on the buyback succeeding, not a given considering the premium being offered.
The move to cut Greek interest payments also elicited a very strange reaction on peripheral bond markets, as we saw Greek yields fall, along with Italian and Spanish yields. The surprise was seeing Spanish and Italian yields fall given that such a move has the effect of costing the Spanish and Italian governments money, given that they have to raise money at higher rates and lend it to Greece. Not exactly a move guaranteed to help the already precarious fiscal positions of both countries.
The new deal needs to be voted on in the national parliaments of Germany later this week, as well as Holland and Finland, and then approved in time for the money to be released on the 13th December, just before the next EU summit. There also remains the small matter of the lack of growth, something the OECD decided to highlight yesterday when it downgraded growth forecasts across the world, with a particular focus on the risks in Europe, downgrading 2013 growth in Europe from 0.9% to -0.1%.
For all the focus on Greece this is one area that Europe appears to have forgotten about.
Across the other side of the Atlantic the US economy appears to be idling along nicely, albeit at a very slow rate, even though concern about the fiscal cliff is making investors nervous, a fact that saw US stocks dip late on after US majority Senate Leader Harry Reid admitted there has been “little progress” in talks thus far. Consumer confidence is at a four year high and house prices appear to be making a comeback.
Today’s Fed Beige book could reinforce this optimism, but it is unlikely to, especially on the East Coast where it would not be unexpected to see some hit to activity from Hurricane Sandy. Previous Beige books have pointed to moderate economic activity with some concern about manufacturing. This seems likely to continue Sandy notwithstanding.
EURUSD – yesterday’s failure at 1.3005 trend line resistance from the 2011 1.4940 highs saw the euro slip back to the 1.2920 area near the 50 day MA. A break above 1.3020 has the potential to retarget the September highs at 1.3175. A break back below the 50 day MA and 1.2900 retargets a move towards the 200 day MA at 1.2800, while below that we also have trend line support from the 1.2050 lows which now comes in at 1.2745.
GBPUSD – the cable once again failed to overcome the 50 day MA for the third day in a row at 1.6065, also falling short of 1.6100 channel line resistance from the 1.6310 highs. Only above 1.6100 has the potential to target 1.6200 and the October highs. If we drop below 1.6000 we could see a drop to the 1.5970 area. To push conclusively lower we would need to see a move towards and break below 1.5815 trend line support from the 1.5270 lows, as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP – yesterday’s bearish daily candle opens up the risk that we’ve seen the highs here and we could now slip back towards 0.8020. We need a move above 0.8115 to suggest a move towards the October highs at 0.8165 remains possible. On the downside trend line support comes in at 0.7990 from the July lows at 0.7755.
USDJPY – having held above support at 81.80 we remain on track for a retest of last week’s highs at 82.85, on the way to a broader move towards the March highs above 84.00. A break below the interim support at 81.80 has the potential to target a move towards the 80.50 and weekly cloud level support. Only below the 80.50 level suggests a move back towards the November lows at 79.00.
Lack of Fiscal Cliff progression douses market enthusiasm
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
The market relief over a debt deal for Greece lasted about 5 minutes before investor attention changed course towards the as-yet unresolved Fiscal Cliff. The rhetoric emanating from Washington in recent days has not exactly filled traders with an abundance of confidence that a deal will get done comfortably before the deadline. Investors had feared that the discussions between Republicans and Democrats would be a long, drawn out process and this is exactly what appears to be playing out on Capitol Hill.
With a lack of development over the US budget talks dousing some recent market enthusiasm, the run higher in ‘risk’ assets has for the moment stalled, much like the Fiscal Cliff discussions themselves it would seem. As a result, there is an uptick in US Dollar buying which has translated into weakness among commodities like gold and oil, with traders making a slight lean towards the side of caution. Shares across Asia followed the tone set by Wall Street with weakness the theme of the day.
And while the equity market weakness was not of the ‘game changing’ variety, it was enough to keep the major bourses trading in red numbers given new no developments on the Fiscal Cliff front. The resource stocks were the most notable under-performers on the Australian market, with commodity prices taking a downturn due to the lack of progression from US budget talks.
Overall, much of the buying momentum enjoyed in the last week or so seems to have dissipated with the gap over the Fiscal Cliff discussion still some way from being closed. However at the first sign of forward progression from US politicians I would expect the market to again be pepped up on expectations that a deal will eventually get done, albeit at the eleventh hour. But until then, the global financial market will be hanging on every word from Washington.