Market Commentary: il sentiment degli operatori improntato all’ottimismo
Nonostante rimangano sulla strada numerosi ostacoli prima che gli investitori possano tornare sul mercato con una certa dose di fiducia, gli indici restano in corsa per il sesto rialzo mensile consecutivo. Si è infatti deciso di guardare il bicchiere mezzo pieno su vari fronti (sostenibilità dell’accordo sulla Grecia, probabilità di un compromesso sul Fiscal Cliff e risanamento delle banche spagnole) sebbene i dati sulla disoccupazione in uscita oggi potrebbero mostrare un tasso in salita a ottobre all’11,7%, un fattore di criticità da non sottovalutare e che peserà probabilmente moltissimo sia sulla crescita che sui bilanci delle banche. Tuttavia, l’ultima pubblicazione di dati Usa è stata una boccata d’ossigeno e ha portato i trader ad anticipare un ipotetico epilogo positivo circa la posizione fiscale degli Usa nella convinzione che , per quanto probabilmente solo all’ultimo minuto, verrà in ogni caso trovato un accordo per evitare il precipizio.
EU unemployment set to hit another record
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
For all this week’s on-off optimism surrounding the on-going US fiscal cliff negotiations, the latest Greek debt deal, and the steps by Spain to draw a line under its banking crisis with this week’s restructuring plan, the fact remains that a number of hurdles remain in Europe before investors can return to the markets with a degree of confidence. Even though equity markets hit three month lows in mid-November we remain on course for the sixth monthly rise in a row, though we still remain below the September highs.
Today’s economic data is expected to starkly illustrate the problems facing Europe when we expect to see the EU unemployment rate to keep rising to a new record of 11.7% for October, up from 11.6% in September. Italian unemployment is also expected to rise to 10.9% from 10.8% in September, despite yesterday’s rebound in consumer confidence. This rising unemployment rate is likely to further weigh on the collective economies across Europe and further keep the pressure on bank balance sheets.
We’ve already seen this week that Spanish banks will have to shed over 6,000 jobs putting further upwards pressure on the rate in that country, as well as further pressure on the non-performing loan rate. The vote today in the German parliament is expected to give a green light to the latest Greek rescue package, however Angela Merkel won’t be getting an easy ride and it seems likely that while it may well pass it will only do so with opposition help, highlighting the continued strains the debt crisis is continuing to place on German political cohesion, as the crisis starts to nibble away at the doors of Berlin.
That would appear to be the least of the problems as cracks start to appear in the buyback program with private bondholders pushing back strongly at the prospect of another haircut, while EU governments continue to refuse to countenance one of their own.
Asian Markets Hit Month-end Finished Line with Gusto
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
Asian equity markets have hit the month-end finish line with some gusto, with traders showing renewed signs of optimism even amid the daily occurrence of political toing and froing from Washington. The latest batch of US economic indicators on Thursday was well received, and this has sparked some short covering in the market.
In terms of the fiscal cliff discussions, the financial markets have showed some signs of patience even as talks fail to make any great progression, perhaps just due to the fact that there is an inherent belief that a deal will not get done until the eleventh hour regardless. In other words, investors are anticipating a nailbiting finish to the budget talks which most still believe will have a favourable outcome. This is why the market held its nerve even after John Boehner made remarks that could have conceivable sent the market into a tailspin.
The Australian sharemarket ended the week in style with the ASX200 renewing acquaintances with the 4500 level with banks and resource stocks making the best of the conditions. Rio Tinto in particular was a driving force behind the ASX200 performance today, with a push higher in commodity prices providing an assist to the Materials sector today. Chinese PMI data on the weekend may impact how the Australian market shapes up in the early part of next week, where the RBA interest rate announcement on Tuesday will be a key event on the local economic calender. However, the fiscal cliff discussions will continue to take centre stage for the foreseeable future.