Market Commentary: l’eurodollaro sembrerebbe aver trovato supporto a 1,3170
Il mancato voto della Camera sul piano Boehner rilancia i quesiti circa la solvibilità del Fiscal Cliff in tempi utili con un immediato effetto depressivo sulla propensione al rischio. Troppe parti e un numero imprevedibile di comprimari sono coinvolti nelle negoziazioni tese ad evitare il precipizio fiscale agli Stati Uniti contribuendo a disegnare un quadro diffcile per gli investitori, che devono proiettare le loro prospettive sull’inizio del 2013: sarà un avvio col botto o col detonatore? Il recente rally registrato nelle ultime settimane , se comparato con i progressi a velocità di lumaca dei negoziati sul Fiscal Cliff, indicherebbe che una robusta dose di ottimismo prefestivo ha già inondato il mercato e ciò lascia naturalmente la porta aperta ad un ritracciamento significativo qualora le decisioni che verranno prese a Washington non dovessero essere in linea con i desideri degli investitori. In tale contesto in via di formazione, le monete a maggior rendimento stanno gradualmente lasciando il passo innanzitutto al Dollaro USD che compie progressi nei confronti delle principali divise. Eurodollaro sembra aver trovato un supporto a 1,3170 con una configurazione grafica a suggerire che i recenti massimi potrebbero rimanere inviolati per un certo periodo: sotto questo livello potremmo ritrovare 1,3020 e 1,2880. Sulla soglia di un sell-off anche la Sterlina nei confronti dell’USD con supporto a 1,6180. Avendo fallito il test a 0,8165, aumentano i rischi di un movimento al ribasso per quanto non sia pregiudicato il ritorno a 0,8300. Dollaro Yen ancora proiettato verso 85,55.
Fiscal cliff talks set to glide into the New Year
By Michael Hewson (Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets UK)
It’s one thing when Republicans can’t agree with Democrats on tax rises and spending cuts with respect to the on-going saga of the fiscal cliff negotiations, but quite another when Republicans can’t even agree amongst themselves as House leader John Boehner’s much trumpeted plan B went the way of the fairies as Republicans couldn’t even agree amongst themselves about what form plan B would take, and as such the vote on it was pulled.
This lack of agreement pretty much guarantees that any solution is likely to push beyond the January deadline and increase market uncertainty at a time when volumes will be a lot lighter than usual. Given that today is supposed to be the end of the world I suppose we shouldn’t be too surprised at the lack of progress, but most market participants are by now probably losing the will to live as we head into the Christmas break, with European markets expected to open lower this morning as a result.
Economic data in the US continues to come in mixed with Q3 GDP improving much more than expected yesterday, as did the latest Philadelphia Fed numbers, contrasting sharply with this week’s earlier disappointing Empire manufacturing numbers. Today the latest durable goods numbers for November are expected to show a gain of 0.2%, down from the 0.5% in October, while personal spending for November is expected to rise 0.4%, no doubt as a result of the increase in retail activity around the Thanksgiving break.
In the UK we have the final revision of Q3 GDP which is expected to confirm that the UK economy grew at 1% while we also have the latest borrowing figures for the UK public finances for November which is expected to show that the Chancellor is as far away as ever from meeting his borrowing target for the current fiscal year.
EURUSD – after this week’s high of 1.3305 the euro is currently finding support at the 1.3170/80 area that was resistance on the way up. The gravestone Doji on the daily charts earlier this week continues to suggest we could well have seen the highs in the short term. A move back below 1.3170 suggests a deeper pullback towards 1.3020 and then 1.2880. Only a move below the 1.2880 level opens up a move back towards the trend line support from the 1.2050 low, which now sits at 1.2825, and the 200 day MA at 1.2790.
GBPUSD – the cable continues to struggle to push beyond the November highs at 1.6310 and the gravestone Doji earlier this week still suggests we could be ripe for a sell-off. Support still remains at 1.6180 which had acted as resistance on the way up. Trend line support from the 1.5830 lows now comes in at 1.6115, while the key support remains at 1.5980. Only a break through here targets major trend line support at 1.5885 from the 1.5270 lows, the 200 day MA at 1.5880 as well as 1.5660.
EURGBP – another test of the 0.8165 level has failed once again keeping the risks for a move lower, while support at 0.8100 serves to limit the downside. The risk still remains for a move to the 0.8300 level, while a break below the 0.8080 level suggests a move back towards 0.8050 and trend line support from the July lows at 0.7755 which remains the key level for the uptrend to continue.
USDJPY – we continue to remain on course for the 2011 highs at 85.55. Last week’s close at 83.55 should act as some form of support, though we could well slip back as far as the breakout level at 82.80. If we do drop below this then there remains solid support at 81.70. If we break below 81.60 then the potential is there for a move towards 80.50, and even 79.90.
Republican non-vote throws spanner in the works
By Tim Waterer (Senior Trader, CMC Markets)
Trading had been going along swimmingly during Asian markets hours until news of the Republican –non vote threw a spanner in the works, which saw risk assets quickly reverse course. But even if Republicans agreed to this plan, the Democrats had already flagged that they wouldn’t, so the net effect on the eventual cliff outcome is debatable. What is not debatable is the immediate deflating affect on financial markets courtesy of this latest news.
There are many moving parts to the ongoing fiscal cliff discussions which makes it difficult for investors to project whether financial markets will be adopting a pro-risk or anti-risk sentiment at the commencement of 2013. The lively move higher by financial markets in recent weeks when compared to the snailpaced discussion progress would indicate that a heavy dose of holiday season optimism has been indeed permeating the market. The only problem with this is that it leaves the door open for a significant fall should a non-market appeasing outcome occur in Washington.
The Aussie Dollar was on the slide today when news of the Republican non-vote on tax plan B hit the wires. The AUDUSD was already sitting below 1.05 due to another steep fall in the gold price which impacted the commodity-linked AUD. The Aussie slipped around a third of a cent (from 1.0470 to 1.0440) as higher yielding currencies gave up ground to the safe haven US Dollar with the latest setback on the ‘cliff’ talks.
How US markets take this latest news tonight will impact whether the AUD is closer to 1.04 or 1.05 heading to the weekend. Despite an up-beat start to the day, the Australian sharemarket performed a u-turn following with the news out of Washington with sentiment dampened. The slump in US futures was a trend following by the major Asian bourses, with traders unwinding long positions as fiscal cliff fears were ramped up.
With an apparent obstacle coming this close to the deadline, investor anxiety naturally heightened today and this was reflective in the performance of the ASX200. The rosier looking morning sentiment had taken a more solemn tone by the afternoon, with traders pulling in the reins on a market advance given the stagnated US budget talks.